NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 16 - Page 2
Cleveland at NY Jets
| Cleveland Browns | New York Jets | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 1.5 | 40.5 | 19.5 | -1.5 | 40.5 | 21 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.6 | 27 | 9 | 27 | Offense | 17.6 | 31 | 31 | 9 | |
| Defense | 25.9 | 21 | 9 | 8 | Defense | 26.2 | 23 | 26 | 3 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| NY Jets | 22 | 3 | 24 | 27 | Cleveland | 16 | 18 | 12 | 17 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Gordon | 133 | 11.1 | 11.7 | 10.0 | Hill | 59 | 4.9 | 4.0 | ||
| Little | 91 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 7.0 | Holmes | 49 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 8.0 | |
| Bess | 86 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 3.0 | Nelson | 49 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 4.0 | |
| Cameron | 110 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 6.0 | Cumberland | 35 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 4.0 | |
Cleveland Browns
The Browns find themselves in a game between two teams that have nothing left to play for. Both have been mathematically eliminated and it’s hard to know how both teams will press in Week 16. Cleveland has a number of injury concerns, including potentially not having Jordan Cameron at tight end. He’s yet to practice this week with concussion symptoms and with nothing to play for, I don’t know if he’ll play unless 100%. The rest of the passing game is pretty easy to predict, as Jason Campbell and Josh Gordon continue to hook up for touchdowns seemingly every week. Gordon will likely be shadowed by Antonio Cromartie on both sides of the field, as Cro has shadowed 5 receivers already this season and is the Jets most talented CB. Talent and success are two different things though and, according to PFF, he’s been struggling in coverage in recent weeks. Here are his stats in coverage since Week 12:
- Week 12: Thrown at 5 Times, 3 Rec, 91 Yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
- Week 13: Thrown at 6 Times, 5 Rec, 59 Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Week 14: Thrown at 7 Times, 4 Rec, 111 Yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
- Week 15: Thrown at 2 Times, 2 Rec, 14 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
The numbers don’t stand out as particularly bad, but 70% of passes are being completed in his direction over the last four weeks and Gordon has been beyond hot for the Browns. Gordon has a touchdown in 5 straight games and had his worst game in that span in Week 15 but still managed 3 catches for 67 yards and a score.
On the ground, it’s a talented Jets front seven that has shown some vulnerability in recent weeks. Marcel Reece ran for over 100 yards against them in Week 14 and DeAngelo Williams had 80 yards rushing AND receiving with a RecTD in Week 15. Overall, the Jets are allowing 22 FPPG to opposing backs over the last three weeks despite holding them to a league low through the first 11 games of the season. It’s hard to find any one reason for the recent struggles, other than a young D-Line that has hit some fatigue. Regardless, the Cleveland rushing attack is convoluted and goes relatively unused as the Browns throw on the 2nd highest percentage of plays in recent weeks. Willis McGahee is likely to return this week and just further muddles a situation that didn’t have a ton of value to begin with given the matchup.
New York Jets
The Jets are another team with nothing left to play for, but don’t expect Rex Ryan to roll over and die as his job is still very much in the balance. Geno Smith will continue to try and move this offense forward as well, as he wants to prove his value as a long term QB option. He’s been able to have some success in recent weeks with his ability to use the run to his advantage. Over the last two games, Smith has 94 rushing yards and 1 rush TD which compares to just 34 rush yards and 1 rush TD in the six games prior to that. The Browns defense has been extremely vulnerable to passing touchdowns and have allowed multiple pass TDs in every game since Week 5. They rank 8th worst in the NFL in FPPG allowed to quarterbacks over the last three weeks and recent struggles from star CB Joe Haden have really detracted from their secondary’s success. Smith will likely look for Santonio Holmes a lot more in this one, and he targeted Holmes 8 times in the loss at Carolina. The 8 targets are nice, but Holmes reeled in just 2 balls for 14 yards. Overall, this game looks like it’s going to be slow-tempo and pretty ugly, so I don’t think you’ll want to target many guys here.
CLE @ NYJ – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Josh Gordon – The Jets are allowing the 9th most FPPG to opposing receivers over the last 5 weeks and Gordon has been scorching hot in that time. He’s the only fantasy relevant player in this game that should be a low scoring, turnover inducing nightmare. Only DS has him as the top priced receiver, and he’s the 2nd highest on every other site and has as much upside as Megatron for tournament play this weekend.
Denver at Houston
| Denver Broncos | Houston Texans | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Reliant Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -10.5 | 51.5 | 31 | 10.5 | 51.5 | 20.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 38.2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | Offense | 18.1 | 29 | 13 | 17 | |
| Defense | 26.6 | 24 | 28 | 11 | Defense | 26.8 | 25 | 2 | 24 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Houston | 9 | 19 | 4 | 15 | Denver | 26 | 25 | 22 | 28 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Thomas | 123 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 5.0 | Johnson | 159 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 10.0 | |
| Decker | 115 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.0 | Hopkins | 83 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.0 | |
| Welker | 110 | 8.5 | 7.5 | Martin | 31 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 3.0 | ||
| Thomas | 76 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 8.0 | Griffin | 16 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 6.0 | |
Denver Broncos
The Broncos had plenty of time to rest up after their Thursday night loss to the Chargers at home in Week 15. Peyton Manning had his second worst game of the season but gets to travel to the nice climate-controlled dome in Houston for Week 16’s game. Concerns about the Broncos having anything to play for should be muted as they need to win games to guarantee homefield through out the playoffs. The Broncos will likely be without Wes Welker again, and Andre Caldwell had a huge game in terms of finding the end zone in Week 15. He was targeted a team high 10 times for 6 receptions and 59 yards with 2 TDs. Overall, Manning targeted D. Thomas and Decker 5 times each and Orange Julius 8 times without Welker on the field. The expected favorite to replace Welker, Jacob Tamme, saw just two targets and the running back duo of Moreno and Ball saw 11 combined targets for the 2nd consecutive week. Manning and company have been mostly matchup proof and there’s very little indication that they’ll struggle in Week 16 against a Texans team that has all but forfeited their year. They’ve allowed multi-TD passes in three straight games and 2 receivers have caught 8+ balls for 80+ yards in that span. On the outside, it looks like Demaryius Thomas will have his hands full with Johnathan Joseph in coverage, as Joseph tends to shadow top tier receivers and can play any corner position on the field. Joseph is the 31st rated corner on PFF but hasn’t allowed over 60 yards receiving when in coverage since Week 9.
On the ground, look for the Broncos to establish the rush early and often in a game where they are heavy 10.5 point road favorites. Houston ranks 7th worst in FPPG allowed to running backs over the last three weeks and just allowed Trent Richardson to break out of a slump and go for 64 rushing yards against them to go with 4 receptions for 38 yards and a score. Overall, it was the 2nd straight week they allowed 100 total rushing yards. The bulk of the snaps went to Moreno in Week 15, as he saw the field on 65% of downs compared to just 35% for Ball. Both caught 5 passes though and given the large spread in this one, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ball take a few more snaps, get a few more touches and have a bigger fantasy impact than Knowshon as the Broncos try and rest him up for postseason play towards the end of the game.
Houston Texans
The Texans are in shambles but the good news is that, as 10.5 point underdogs, there should be a ton of garbage points for the Houston passing game to pick up as they play catch up against Denver. The Broncos are expected to see the return of Champ Bailey in their secondary, but given how much he struggled when he last returned from injury it’s pretty unknown if he can have any type of impact when on the field. Bailey will likely line up across from Andre Johnson, but again there is a lot of uncertainty that comes with his number of snaps and coverage assignments in his first game back. The DEN secondary without Bailey has held two straight QBs to under 200 yards passing, which is a bit surprising but again this Vegas spread has me expecting a lot of pass attempts for Schaub in catch up mode. Denver still allows the 8th most FPPG to QBs on the season and they’re 9th over the last 5 weeks, so it’s a top 10 matchup for Schaub. If Bailey plays well, Schaub will need to rely on Ryan Griffin more in Week 16 with Garrett Graham not expected to dress. Griffin stepped up in Week 15 by pulling in all 6 of his targets for 6 catches and 62 yards. The matchup is fantastic for Ryan as well and the Broncos have allowed opposing tight ends to find the end zone in 3 of their last 5 games.
On the ground, the Texans should be able to establish the run against a banged up front seven, but keeping the ball on the ground will be a challenge if they fall behind. In the last four weeks, the Broncos have allowed 489 rushing yards to backs on 111 carries (4.84 YPC average) with 6 rush TDs. The loss of Vickerson on their D-line has devastated them and the Chargers were able to keep Peyton off the field in Week 15 by giving Denver a heavy dose of Ryan Mathews. That may be the key to any success for Houston on Sunday, but still that line scares me off the Houston rushing attack lead by Dennis Johnson after Ben Tate was placed on IR this week.
DEN @ HOU – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Peyton Manning – It’s impossible to ignore how consistently fantasy relevant he’s been. Throw out last week’s tough performance on short rest and just hope he doesn’t sit down early in this one. That risk drops him from being a cash game play to tournaments only this weekend.
- Montee Ball – Ball should see a heavy dose of touches and still has strong value on a number of sites. $4.7K on DK is strong with his PPR ability and $5.1K on FD is relatively cheap as well. His $9.3K tag on SS makes for a solid value also.
- Eric Decker – Have a good feeling on Decker this week as the Texans will look to neutralize Demaryius Thomas on the outside. He’s really cheap on DD at $12.3K and $6.7K on DraftKings is affordable as well for tournaments
- Andre Caldwell – Despite the big game he’s still bargain bin material on most sites. His best value, by far, is on DraftKings where he’s the bare minimum at $3K.
- Julius Thomas – He’s priced out as a top-5 TE right now, which is completely fair and while I don’t know if his upside is there, he won’t be a high percentage owned and could be a strong contrarian play.
- Matt Schaub – When Peyton has created big leads for the Broncos, it’s allowed opposing QBs to post huge fantasy lines in garbage time. Schaub is a steal at home with a backup RB and should throw 45-50 times. The $5.3K tag on DK is enticing for large field events and $10K on FTD is pretty reasonable as well. $6.1K on FanDuel may not have as much value as you tend to need a higher scoring QB there.
- Dennis Johnson – Add Johnson to the ever expanding list of cheap RB options this weekend. Tate is on the IR and the Broncos have struggled against the run. He’s min priced on FD, DK and SS this weekend, but makes for a SUPER value on FanThrowDown at just $4k which is a mere 4% of the overall salary cap.
- Andre Johnson – Johnson is probable and I’d be VERY cautious here, because if he shows the slightest sign of being hurt he’ll find the pine. With that said, he could have a monster game with Schaub throwing a ton and is dirt cheap on DraftKings at $6.5K which is the lowest he’s been all season.
- Ryan Griffin – Another Texans player who can serve as a strong punt value in GPPs is Griffin. Schaub loves to target the tight ends and Griffin is min priced on FanDuel, $3.4K on DK and $4.3K on DS
Tennessee at Jacksonville
| Tennessee Titans | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | EverBank Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -5.5 | 44 | 24.75 | 5.5 | 44 | 19.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.3 | 18 | 21 | 20 | Offense | 15.8 | 32 | 26 | 30 | |
| Defense | 25.4 | 19 | 10 | 23 | Defense | 28.5 | 30 | 19 | 30 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville | 30 | 23 | 17 | 31 | Tennessee | 4 | 31 | 2 | 22 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Wright | 125 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 20.0 | Sanders | 66 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 3.0 | |
| Washington | 91 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 9.0 | Brown | 46 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | |
| Hunter | 38 | 3.2 | 6.5 | Ebert | 8 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | ||
| Walker | 76 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 11.0 | Lewis | 35 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 7.0 | |
Tennessee Titans
The Titans are eliminated from playoff contention, which could impact the way this game plays out with another non-playoff contender in JAX but it’s unlikely that the Titans will rest any of their key players. Delanie Walker, Kendall Wright and Chris Johnson are all probable for this one and two of those three are key components to the TEN passing game. That unit is coming off a monster game where Ryan Fitzpatrick again stunned fantasy players with 404 passing yards, 4 TD and 2 INT. He targeted Kendall Wright a ridiculous 20 times and Wright has become one of the best full point PPR threats available. Wright reeled in 12 of those 20 targets in Week 15 for 150 yards and now draws a Jacksonville secondary allowing the 3rd most FPPG to receivers over the last 5 weeks and 2nd most over the last 3 weeks. Similarly, the rank 6th worst vs. QBs over the last 5 and 3rd worst vs. QBs over the last 3. Point being, Fitzpatrick and Wright should be able to find more success against this defense on Sunday and WR1s have combined for 497 and 3 RecTD over the Jaguars last three games. The matchup combined with his recent usage makes Wright one of the best available options come Sunday. Fitzpatrick should also be able to use Delanie Walker against a Jags defense that has been equally terrible against Tight Ends.
On the ground, it’s no surprise the Jacksonville defense is again vulnerable, despite appearing to sure up some holes over the last month. But in Week 15, old habits snapped back as they lost their first game in 5 weeks and Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller combined for 140 rushing yards on just 30 carries. PFF has the Jags defense rated as 4th worst in rush stopping in the NFL and Chris Johnson has found the end zone in three consecutive weeks. In a game where the Titans are favored, Johnson should see 15-18 touches on the ground and will also be a valuable part of Fitzpatrick’s short to mid range passing attack. Also worth noting is that Johnson managed just 30 rushing yards in the Week 10 matchup between these two teams.
Jacksonville Jaguars
There are a number of areas where the Jaguars can find vulnerabilities in the Titans defense, but after losing Cecil Shorts for the season, it’s unlikely that the passing game will be one of them. Ace Sanders was a high value Week 15 target, but the Titans have some extremely talented corners who can shut down one of the league’s worst passing attacks. With MJD doubtful, that means they need to heavily rely on Jordan Todman again and that’s great news for his value in this matchup. Here are the last 5 games against running backs for the Titans:
- Week 11 – Donald Brown – 80 RuYd, 2 RuTD, 1 Rec, 14 RecYd, 21.9 FP
- Week 12 – Rashad Jennings – 73 RuYd, 0 RuTD, 4 Rec, 49 RecYd, 14.2 FP
- Week 13 – Donald Brown – 54 RuYd, 1 RuTD, 2 Rec, 10 RecYd, 13.4 FP
- Week 14 – Moreno/Ball Comb. – 165 RuYd, 2 RuTD, 9 Rec, 41 RecYd, 36.1 FP
- Week 15 – Ellington/Mendenhall Comb. – 140 RuYd, 2 RuTD, 5 Rec, 96 RecYd, 38.1 FP
They’ve been extremely vulnerable and with Todman being the workhorse back who showed he can have PPR value in Week 15, he has huge upside against this defense. Todman was targeted a whopping 8 times in Week 15, which lead all Jaguars players. He also carried the ball 25 times for over 4 yards per carry and 109 total rushing yards.
Through the passing game, Chad Henne will need to rely on Marcedes Lewis if the receivers on the outside struggle to get open. The Titans have struggled against Tight Ends all season and last week, with Arizona down to just Jake Ballard and Jim Dray at the TE slot, they still allowed a TE to catch a touchdown pass. Lewis quietly has one of the best streaks in the game going, having caught touchdowns in three consecutive games and seems highly likely to find the end zone in this one despite having somewhat limited upside beyond a few catches and a score.
TEN @ JAX – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Ryan Fitzpatrick – Fitz’ 30 point fantasy effort on Sunday marked the 4th time in 9 starts where he went over at least 20 FP and he’s sneaky been one of the more productive daily QBs in recent weeks. He’s still dirt cheap on DraftKings at $5.5K.
- Chris Johnson – He’s a site specific GPP play but at $10K on FTD and $11.1K on DD he has strong value and the upside to win you a tournament for a low %owned.
- Kendall Wright – His price went up on every site after that monster Week 15 performance and yet he’s still just $8K on DS, $6.1K on FD and $6K on DK. All of those are strong values considering how WR1’s have fared vs. JAX in recent weeks.
- Delanie Walker – He’s a matchup-specific play, so in this game you can definitely target Walker heavily. His best values are $5.2K on FD and $8.6K on DD.
- Jordan Todman – Here’s another guy whose price rose across the board this week. He had the highest average price increase across the 7 sites of all running backs between Weeks 15 and 16 and with good reason. He’s still underpriced though, especially on DraftKings at $4400 where he has added PPR value and on FF at $78K.