NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week Eleven
Welcome to the RotoGrinders Weekly NFL Grind Down Article. There’s no better place to start your research for NFL action in the week ahead than the Grind Down. Each week, we break down every game in an effort to better prepare you when building your daily fantasy lineups.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Indianapolis at Tennessee
| Indianapolis Colts | Tennessee Titans | |||||||||
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| Thurs – 8:25PM ET | LP Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -2.5 | 42 | 22.25 | 2.5 | 42 | 19.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.7 | 12 | 15 | 16 | Offense | 22.2 | 19 | 23 | 13 | |
| Defense | 21.4 | 9 | 19 | 26 | Defense | 21.8 | 10 | 8 | 21 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tennessee | 4 | 26 | 1 | 21 | Indianapolis | 15 | 5 | 24 | 6 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Hilton | 74 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 8.0 | Wright | 72 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | |
| Whalen | 17 | 3.4 | 7.0 | 5.0 | Washington | 61 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 5.0 | |
| Heyward-Bey | 46 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 | Hunter | 18 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 7.0 | |
| Fleener | 48 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 10.0 | Walker | 44 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 8.0 | |
Indianapolis Colts
The key matchup for the Colts on Thursday will be stud wideout TY Hilton against the Titans secondary. The Titans have been superb against the pass all season long. Just consider what they’ve done to some of the WR #1’s they’ve faced over their last 5 games:
- Wk5: Dwayne Bowe – 4 rec, 35 yards, 0 TD
- Wk6: Golden Tate – 5 rec, 33 yards, 0 TD
- Wk7: Anquan Boldin – 5 rec, 74 yards, 0 TD
- Wk9: Chris Givens – 4 rec, 55 yards, 0 TD
- Wk10: Cecil Shorts – 2 rec, 42 yards, 0 TD
Hilton is going to be battling all game with the likes of Alterraun Verner and Jason McCourty, who are both ranked in the Top-3 Corners on PFF. But you can’t ignore the 14 catches for 151 yards and 3 scores Hilton has racked up since the injury to top WR Reggie Wayne. It’s talent vs. talent and in this scenario, I would give the edge to the Tennessee secondary because of their depth and the lack of a 2nd option for Indy.
In the running game, it will be the third straight week in a row where the Colts have a matchup on the ground that they SHOULD be able to exploit. They’ve now allowed a rushing TD in each of their last 5 games and have allowed some gaudy totals this year. But Richardson hasn’t been very good for Indianapolis and Donald Brown is starting to see a lot more opportunities. Last week, Brown was able to find the end zone and rack up 64 receiving yards while trying to chase down STL. This week, it’s a team that has been soft at best against the interior running game, something that would have had me licking my chops for T-Rich a year ago. This season, I wouldn’t consider him except as a desperation heave in a qualifier.
Tennessee Titans
Before their bye, the Colts seemed to have figured out their secondary issues from a year ago. But those problems came lurking back quickly as Andre Johnson torched them in Week 9 and last week Tavon Austin was able to get over the top of them for 2 huge scores. Right now, they’re struggling with giving up the home run so let’s try and see which of the TEN wideouts has the most home run power:
- Kendall Wright – 70 targets, 50 rec, 11.6 yds/rec, 7.7 YAC, 45 yd long, 7.6 yard average pass depth
- Nate Washington – 57 targets, 29 rec, 16.1 yds/rec, 4.4 YAC, 77 yd long, 15 yd average pass depth
The point here being that Washington might be a better GPP play this weekend because of his big play capability and the Colts struggles of late with the big play.
The Locker injury is also worth mentioning in this one. With Locker ruled out for the year, Harvard grad Ryan Fitzpatrick will again be the full time starter for an NFL franchise. The Titans are battling for a playoff spot so this divisional game at home is almost a must-win for them. So who has Fitzpatrick favored in the 3 games he’s played in full this season?
Kendall Wright – 25 targets, Nate Washington – 17 targets, Justin Hunter – 11 targets, Delanie Walker – 19 targets
Even going back to last season, Fitzpatrick has always loved using the TE check down to his advantage. When he’s been on the field, Walker has benefitted greatly. He has 4 catches in all 3 of Fitz’s games and went for 62 yards and a score in Week 10. Also worth noting is that Damian Williams will not play this weekend and Justin Hunter should see more time at the WR3 position.
Against the run, the Colts boast a pretty solid front seven. Considering how hit or miss Chris Johnson is, especially on his number of touches, I don’t think you can rely on him unless you’re hoping for one big play to cover his price tag. Greene is a different situation altogether, since he’s the go-to-guy in the RZ, and I think he makes a nice value play on sites like DraftStreet where the cap is tighter and his reduced salary can be paid off, even in GPPs, with a TD run and a couple of catches.
Fantasy Relevant
- Nate Washington – Washington, as I mentioned above, can exploit a Colts secondary led by Vontae Davis who has looked sluggish to say the least over the past couple of games. He’s been torched over the top and Washington is Tennessee’s premiere deep threat.
- Shonn Greene and Donald Brown – Both should only be considered in GPP’s but given the strong matchups and struggling backs in front of them, both are likely to get some opportunities to contribute in the red zone, which could mean quality production at a near minimum price point.
- T.Y. Hilton – I broke down the tough matchup for Hilton, but given his recent success he has to be considered fantasy relevant in any game. I’d still argue that his value is best reserved for Thursday Night GPPs.
- Coby Fleener – My biggest concern on Fleener is that his ceiling isn’t high enough and his most likely output is probably an 8-10 fantasy point game. With that said, the matchup is solid and given the Colts inability to run the ball combined with what I expect to be a tough game for Hilton, Fleener may see a bigger workload than usual and he was targeted 10 times in Week 10.
Oakland at Houston
| Oakland Raiders | Houston Texans | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Reliant Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 7 | 42.5 | 17.75 | -7 | 42.5 | 24.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.4 | 29 | 31 | 5 | Offense | 18.9 | 27 | 12 | 11 | |
| Defense | 24.8 | 21 | 22 | 7 | Defense | 27.6 | 28 | 1 | 16 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Houston | 10 | 13 | 4 | 18 | Oakland | 22 | 16 | 26 | 11 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Moore | 68 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 9.0 | Johnson | 96 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 12.0 | |
| Ford | 15 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.0 | Hopkins | 59 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 11.0 | |
| Streater | 45 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 4.0 | Martin | 14 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Rivera | 29 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.0 | Graham | 42 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.0 | |
Oakland Raiders
The Oakland passing game can be difficult to predict given how little they throw. Only 54% of their plays are pass attempts and their QB tends to do more damage when he tucks the ball and runs. The Texans have already faced a pair of rushing QBs in Kaepernick and Wilson and had mixed success. Wilson torched them for 77 yards on the ground while Kaep was only able to scramble once for 14 yards.
Through the air, things are getting worse for the Houston secondary as Kareem Jackson is doubtful to play this weekend, leaving Brandon Harris as the likely candidate to play corner across from Johnathan Joseph. Joseph can hang with Denarius Moore, but Rod Streater has had some upside of late and has a good matchup against Harris on Sunday.
Looking at the run game, McFadden sat out practice again on Thursday and is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game. If he sits, Rashad Jennings will shoulder the load for the Raiders. Jennings went for 88 yards last week with a pair of receptions. His upside comes catching the ball out of the backfield and he has two games this year with 7 or more catches. The Texans have been pretty good preventing backs from hurting them in the screen game all season, and no RB has had more than 3 receptions against them which limits the overall value of Jennings. Overall, Houston ranks 10th against the rush on PFF.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Pryor is a GPP play in almost any matchup because he can break a long run and provide value in multiple statistical categories. With that said, he’s a very risky play on the road against a defense that is still above average.
- RB – I like Jennings’ PPR ability but as mentioned above, the Texans haven’t given up much on short screens and check downs. If he can break that trend, he has a ton of upside but I’d leave him for GPPs as well.
- WR – Denarius Moore should see a healthy dose of Johnathan Joseph and might be in for a long day. The value here would be Rod Streater whose production is way up and gets to face a backup corner on most passing downs.
- TE – The Raiders tight ends aren’t fantasy relevant.
Houston Texans
Case Keenum has taken over this Houston passing game and it has kick started the deep passing game for the Texans. Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins both saw double digit targets last weekend and both are thriving with Keenum at the helm. This has made backup TE, and a one time top value play, Garrett Graham pretty irrelevant. Keenum loves to throw deep and Graham has seen just 9 total targets over the last two games.
When you look at the matchup, it’s hard to move past the 7 TD’s Oakland allowed to Foles a couple weeks back and say they’re not extremely vulnerable against the pass.That game marked the 3rd time a quarterback had thrown for over 370 yards against the Raiders and they have really struggled against the deep pass that Houston has had success with recently.
The run game, like Oakland, will rely on a backup RB with relatively high fantasy value. Arian Foster is out for the year and it’s now “Ben Tate(player-profile)”:/players/Ben_Tate-11715’s job as long as he’s healthy. The Raiders gave way to Andre Brown last weekend, but considering the 30 touches Brown received on the ground, it would have been tough to prevent him from having at least an above average game. He averaged less than 4 yards per carry and was the first back to go over 100 yards against this Raiders front seven. Tate should be considered based on price tag alone, but don’t be surprised if this matchup proves to be relatively challenging.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Keenum has one of the best upsides of any QB this week when you take into account his style of play accompanied by Oakland’s weaknesses on defenses. He’s still young so he’s mistake-prone but Keenum can be considered as a QB1 in tournaments and as a 2nd QB in cash games for the right price point.
- RB – Tate could be fighting an uphill battle against the Oakland front seven this week, but if he is still in the bottom third of starting running back pricing on your site of preference, consider sneaking him into your lineups.
- WR – Both Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins are high upside plays along with Keenum this weekend. Johnson is the better cash game play, but will likely break your bank a little bit. Hopkins should probably be left for tournaments only.
- TE – As referenced above, Graham isn’t a huge part of this offense with Keenum calling the shots. He’s always a threat for a TD but I wouldn’t expect a monster game from him anytime soon.
NY Jets at Buffalo
| New York Jets | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Ralph Wilson Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 0 | 40.5 | 20.25 | 0 | 40.5 | 20.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.8 | 28 | 26 | 9 | Offense | 19.9 | 24 | 29 | 7 | |
| Defense | 25.7 | 22 | 24 | 1 | Defense | 25.9 | 24 | 17 | 22 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo | 20 | 7 | 31 | 5 | NY Jets | 21 | 2 | 23 | 28 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Hill | 47 | 5.2 | 4.0 | Johnson | 8.8 | 9.3 | 10.0 | |||
| Nelson | 25 | 5.0 | 7.5 | Graham | 36 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Holmes | 24 | 6.0 | Goodwin | 17 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 4.0 | |||
| Cumberland | 22 | 2.8 | 2.0 | Chandler | 57 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 3.0 | ||
New York Jets
The Jets come off the bye having continued their ‘win one, lose one’ streak so far this season. It’s uncanny how this team manages to beat a team that seems superior on paper one week, then drop an absolute dud the following week. Much of this has been due to the ebbs and flows of rookie QB Geno Smith. Geno posted his lowest fantasy output in a Jets win when New Orleans came to town in Week 9, but other than that had been an absolute stud in all of the Jets victories. That passing game will be without Jeremy Kerley, but could see the return of Jeff Cumberland who is practicing this week. The loss of Kerley didn’t benefit any of the wideouts for New York in Week 10. There were only 11 total targets to all Jets WRs in that game, so predicting who will see an uptick is anyone’s guess.
Much like Geno, the Jets rush attack has also been up and down. Chris Ivory ran for over 100 yards in a Week 8 win over New England then saw just 6 carries while the Jets played catchup in Week 9. Then in Week 10 he returned with 18 rushes for 139 yards and a score. The entire rush attack seems dependent on the tempo of the game and whether or not the Jets are playing from behind. If they can control the pace of this game, Ivory could post big numbers against a Bills defense that has been vulnerable to both the Chiefs and Steelers in recent weeks.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Buffalo ranks 20th against quarterbacks but I’m not sure Smith has enough weapons around him to post a huge score right now.
- RB – Ivory is hit or miss, but Buffalo is allowing 103.8 yards per game on the ground this season and it seems like a good spot for him to ‘hit’. With that said, his lack of consistency makes him a GPP target only.
- WR – The guy I like in this corps is David Nelson who saw 19 targets in Weeks 8 and 9 before being targeted just 3 times in Week 10. Nelson had 160 receiving yards in those two big weeks and with Kerley out he could present a nice value against a defense that has allowed some bigger games to wideouts.
- TE – With Cumberlands return in question, Sudfeld’s strong Week 10 and the end of Kellen Winslow suspension I think this TE situation is way too convoluted to take a risk on.
Buffalo Bills
Their offense looked horrible in a Week 10 loss at Pittsburgh with EJ Manuel returning to the helm. That passing game could be in even more trouble this week with Robert Woods again ruled out and Stevie Johnson looking more doubtful than questionable. That leaves Manuel with a very small selection of wideouts to throw at in a game where the Bills are unlikely to have success on the ground. If both of those two WRs don’t play, it would likely be Marquise Goodwin and T.J. Graham who’d fill the voids for Buffalo. Graham would be the possession WR while Goodwin presents more of a deep threat.
The Jets rush defense has been incredible so far this year, ranking #1 in the NFL in PFF’s rush defense ratings by a long shot. They rank first in yards per game allowed AND yards per attempt allowed as Mo Wilkerson and company are comprising the best defensive line in the game. Given the Bills confusing rush attack situation, I don’t know if they’ll be able to find any running room on Sunday.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – EJ Manuel has limited upside and looked rattled against Pittsburgh last weekend. I’d avoid.
- RB – Avoiding all Bills RB’s in this one, as the Jets are the one team I wouldn’t consider any running back against right now.
- WR – Like NYJ, the Bills receiving value might be available by thinking outside the box. Marquise Goodwin has a couple of big games this season and could be a nice tournament play against an average at best Jets secondary.
- TE – Scott Chandler saw 11 and 9 targets in back-to-back weeks with EJ Manuel out, then was targeted just 3 teams last weekend. Manuel also never targeted him more than 6 times through the first 5 games of the season, BUT given all the injuries to Bills receivers Chandler could see an increased workload.
Cleveland at Cincinnati
| Cleveland Browns | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Paul Brown Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 5.5 | 42 | 18.25 | -5.5 | 42 | 23.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.1 | 26 | 16 | 26 | Offense | 23.4 | 17 | 7 | 18 | |
| Defense | 21.9 | 11 | 10 | 6 | Defense | 18.6 | 6 | 7 | 9 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati | 9 | 4 | 11 | 8 | Cleveland | 14 | 19 | 12 | 16 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Gordon | 66 | 9.4 | 8.5 | Green | 119 | 11.8 | 13.7 | 15.0 | ||
| Little | 64 | 7.0 | 6.0 | Sanu | 54 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 8.0 | ||
| Bess | 60 | 6.7 | 6.0 | Jones | 48 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 7.0 | ||
| Cameron | 71 | 8.0 | 4.5 | Gresham | 46 | 5.1 | 5.0 | |||
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is another team coming off a bye week and went into their break with a huge win against the defending Super Bowl champions. Besides now looking like geniuses for trading away Trent Richardson, Cleveland has also found some production from their 3rd QB of the season Jason Campbell. Even with Brandon Weeden healthy, Cleveland is likely to turn to Campbell for his 3rd start of the season and he’s been surprisingly fantasy relevant in each of his first two:
- Week 8: 292 PaYd, 2 TD, 0 INT, 17 RuYd, 21.4 FP
- Week 9: 262 PaYd, 3 TD, 0 INT, 20 RuYd, 24.5 FP
He’ll be up against one of the better pass coverage defenses in the NFL in Cincy, but considering the Browns are likely to be playing from behind and the mounting injuries to the Bengals, that matchup could be better than it looks on paper. The other storyline in the Browns passing game was Greg Little snagging 7 balls for 144 yards in Week 9, and Davone Bess stealing 2 TDs away from the highly owned Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron. Cameron in general has struggled with Campbell at the helm, and he doesn’t seem to be as involved in Cleveland’s attack with their new QB. Here’s the target summary for Jason Campbell:
- Josh Gordon – 17 targets
- Jordan Cameron – 9 targets
- Greg Little – 12 targets
- Davone Bess – 12 targets
Cincinnati Bengals
After a miracle hail mary worked out for the Bengals last weekend, they went into full Bungals mode and didn’t capitalize on the gift they received from the Ravens secondary. They went for it on fourth and short instead of opting for a long field goal in OT and it opened the door for a couple of teams in the AFC North. The Bengals now come home where they’re 4-0 so far this season. Their 6-4 record this year has been in large part thanks to Andy Dalton who has emerged as one of the better fantasy QBs in 2013, despite a rough Week 10 performance. But Dalton’s success could be attributed to the strength of their pass blocking which ranks 2nd on ProFootballFocus this season. The injury news for their passing game this week is the likely return of Jermaine Gresham. His impact will be mostly in the run game, as he’s one of the better rush blocking tight ends in the NFL and he will also detract much of the value from pass-catching tight end Tyler Eifert.
On the ground, it’s all about the transition to more Giovani Bernard for Cincinnati. Bernard has also become a crucial part of the passing game and was targeted 8 times in Week 10. Cleveland is allowing just under 40 receiving yards per game to opposing backs and that matchup could be juicy for Bernard on PPR sites this weekend.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Dalton has 18 or more fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games and the Browns have given up multiple passing touchdowns in 4 consecutive weeks. If Dalton can utilize his 2nd and 3rd receiving options, this Browns defense can be exploited.
- RB – I love Bernard in most matchups because of that PPR ability. On a site like DraftKings where you get a full point per reception, his floor is much higher than most backs and he makes a tremendous cash game or GPP play.
- WR – I’m avoiding A.J. Green since Joe Haden will likely blanket him and any damage done against the Browns has been by WR2s and TEs this year. With that in mind, we might see the return of Marvin Jones who has fallen off the daily fantasy map in recent weeks. Cleveland ranks 6th vs. WR #1’s but 19th against WR #2s.