NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week Six - Page 3
Cincinnati at Buffalo
| Cincinnati Bengals | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Ralph Wilson Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -7 | 42 | 24.5 | 7 | 42 | 17.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.8 | 25 | 18 | 19 | Offense | 22.4 | 19 | 28 | 3 | |
| Defense | 17.4 | 7 | 11 | 10 | Defense | 26.0 | 20 | 18 | 22 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo | 19 | 4 | 31 | 4 | Cincinnati | 12 | 9 | 14 | 13 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Green | 59 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 8.0 | Johnson | 7.6 | 7.3 | 3.0 | ||
| Sanu | 26 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | Woods | 40 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 13.0 | |
| Jones | 15 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.0 | Graham | 16 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 5.0 | |
| Gresham | 27 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 4.0 | Chandler | 27 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 6.0 | |
CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Bengals defense dominated the Patriots in their week 5 win. They pressured Brady like crazy, forcing 3 fumbles, 1 INT and sacking him 4 times. The Bengals defense has11 sacks in their last 3 games and have not allowed a 300 yard passer in their last 19 games. They will face a rookie QB in Buffalo this week.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Andy Dalton has been a real disappointment this season. In his last 2 games he has no TDs, 2 INT, and is averaging 209 YPG. Even with all the injuries Buffalo is only allowing a QB rating of 73.1.
RBs – Marvin Lewis is clearly not a fantasy player. Bernard appeared to be on his way to becoming the featured back, until last week that is. BJGE ended up with 19 carries and 1 TD VS Bernard’s 13 carries and a fumble. Gio is averaging 4.6 YPC and BJGE is at 2.9. They both have good value against the Bills 22nd ranked run defense.
Receiving – It is hard to count on any Bengals receiver with Andy Dalton playing so poorly. AJ Green is averaging under 50 yards a game since week 1.The Bills rank 31st in FPPG to the WR and have allowed 7 WRs to get 10+ pts this season.
BUFFALO BILLS
Heading into week 5 it seemed like the entire Bills team was injured or banged up. Spiller ended up being a surprise start, but that is where the good news ended. The Bills lost both Stevie Johnson (back) and E.J. Manuel (Knee) to make matters worse. The Bills are in terrible shape heading into a week 6 matchup up with the Bengals.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – The Bills signed Thaddeus Lewis from their practice squad and announced he will start this week against Cincinnati, while rookie Jeff Tuel will serve as the backup. Yuck.
RBs – The bills are the 3rd best rushing team in the NFL. I expect them to have a run heavy attack this week against Cincy. Both Jackson and Spiller will be used plenty. Jackson is Coach Marrone’s preferred option both in the red zone and passing game he has averaged 92.4 yards per game.
Receiving – It is hard to see any value in Woods or Johnson with a rookie QB and a very good Bengals secondary. Leon Hall looks like he will return this week and PFF has him ranked as the 4th best CB in the league, Terrence Newman ranks 12th. Chandler might see a slight boost, as rookie QBs tend to rely on the TE more often than not, but I would avoid all Bills receivers this week.
Jacksonville at Denver
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Denver Broncos | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:05PM ET | Mile High Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 26.5 | 53 | 13.25 | -26.5 | 53 | 39.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 10.2 | 32 | 29 | 30 | Offense | 46.0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | |
| Defense | 32.6 | 31 | 10 | 32 | Defense | 27.8 | 24 | 32 | 1 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Denver | 29 | 27 | 30 | 26 | Jacksonville | 26 | 21 | 17 | 25 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Shorts | 61 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 10.0 | Thomas | 44 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | |
| Blackmon | 9 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | Welker | 42 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 6.0 | |
| Sanders | 28 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.0 | Decker | 44 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 8.0 | |
| Lewis | 0.0 | 0.0 | Thomas | 36 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 12.0 | |||
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Jags could have very easily pulled out their game against the Rams last week, trailing only by a TD late in the 4th quarter. The Jags have averaged only 10.2 PPG. They are finally healthy at WR and having Henne at QB over Gabbert is a big upgrade, which should tell how pathetic Blaine Gabbert is. It is possible Gabbert has thrown his last pass in the NFL.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Chad Henne could be a nice GPP sleeper. He is capable of a big game and has both his underrated WRs healthy. Henne will be throwing a ton and Denver is allowing 347 passing yards per game.
RBs – MJD has not come back as strong as many expected. The Jags trailing big every game does not help his touches either. Unless he gets some looks out of the backfield it is hard to imagine a decent game from Drew.
Receiving – Fantasy players have never been so exciting thinking of garbage time. Both Blackmon and Shorts could have big games in Mile High. The Broncos are 30th in FPPG allowed to WRs.
DENVER BRONCOS
The Denver Broncos won a thriller 51-48 over Dallas in week 5 to remain undefeated. It was the 4th highest scoring game in NFL history. At one point in the 3rd quarter I began to wonder if Wes Welker was sitting down after each offensive snap, the Broncos had 28 points and Welker did not have catch. This is a good example of how balanced the Broncos offense is. Denver now has 16 straight regular season wins.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Even if he does not play the whole game, Manning should still put up huge numbers.
RBs – I would expect to see all three of Moreno, Hillman and Ball in this one. Moreno like Peyton could still put up good numbers in 3 quarters.
Receiving – The Jags are giving up over 32 PPG and have not faced a potent offense yet. Everyone is in play. Welker is 2nd in the league in red zone targets. Decker is ranked 14th overall in receiving FPPG. Orange Julius is 2nd in TE FPPG. Jacksonville is allowing 14.2 FFPG to the TE which ranks them 25th overall.
Tennessee at Seattle
| Tennessee Titans | Seattle Seahawks | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:05PM ET | CenturyLink Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 13.5 | 40.5 | 13.5 | -13.5 | 40.5 | 27 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.0 | 15 | 26 | 13 | Offense | 27.4 | 7 | 25 | 2 | |
| Defense | 19.0 | 10 | 9 | 14 | Defense | 16.2 | 6 | 3 | 19 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Seattle | 8 | 11 | 5 | 10 | Tennessee | 2 | 18 | 4 | 23 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Washington | 38 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 8.0 | Tate | 32 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 11.0 | |
| Wright | 37 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 8.0 | Rice | 24 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 4.0 | |
| Britt | 22 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | Baldwin | 24 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 9.0 | |
| Walker | 24 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 6.0 | Miller | 14 | 3.5 | 3.0 | ||
TENNESSEE TITANS
Losing Jake Locker was a tough blow to the Titans who were off to a very good start. The Titans are playing tough football lead by a very stingy defense. Tennessee played a strong game against KC last week, leading 17-13 in the 4th quarter, before ultimate succumbing to the Chiefs. It does not get any easier for them as they now head to Seattle for week 6.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Seattle has the 3rd best pass defense in the NFL. Fitzpatrick struggled last week and I expect the same this week.
RBs – Chris Johnson no longer has that breakaway speed and is losing all the goal line carries. He is a safe pass this week.
Receiving – It will not be fun facing the legion of boom (Sherman & Browner) for the Titans receivers. The Seahawks have possibly the best and most physical corners in the NFL.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
In what would have been the game of the week had Peyton and Romo not squared off, the Colts rallied late to beat the Seahawks in a very exciting game. It was the Seahawks first loss of the season. Seattle will now head home where they have not lost since 2011.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – The Seahawks are having offensive line issues and that has forced Russell Wilson to scramble and run more of late. In the last two weeks he has rushed for 179 yards. The Titans will be hard on Wilson as they have allowed the 2nd fewest FPPG to a QB at 12.2
RBs – Marshawn Lynch has over 100 YFS in 3 of his last 4 games. The Titans are allowing 4.3 yards per carry and the 5th most YFS to RBs.
Receiving – According to PFF the Titans have the #1 coverage unit in the NFL. Wilson distributes the ball pretty evenly to his receivers. It is very difficult to know which receiver will have a big day. Tate had a career high 11 targets last week. Rice only has 2 receptions in the last two games.
New Orleans at New England
| New Orleans Saints | New England Patriots | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:25PM ET | Gillette Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 2.5 | 49.5 | 23.5 | -2.5 | 49.5 | 26 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.8 | 9 | 2 | 26 | Offense | 19.0 | 24 | 21 | 14 | |
| Defense | 14.6 | 4 | 12 | 18 | Defense | 14.0 | 2 | 14 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New England | 6 | 12 | 3 | 18 | New Orleans | 9 | 14 | 15 | 7 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Colston | 31 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | Amendola | 23 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 9.0 | |
| Stills | 16 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | Thompkins | 43 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | |
| Moore | 11 | 3.7 | 3.0 | Edelman | 50 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 7.0 | ||
| Graham | 54 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 11.0 | Gronkowski | |||||
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Saints got a big win in Soldier field last week to go to 5-0. New Orleans jumped out to an early 13-0 lead and even though the Bears where within 8 points late, the win was never in doubt. The Saints controlled most of this game. Graham and Brees continued to connect and the Saints RBs out of the backfield had some big plays. The chemistry on offense is back thanks to Sean Payton and Rob Ryan has this defense playing very well.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Brees failed to throw for 300 yards for the first time in 10 games against the Bears. New England has a solid pass defense, and the 6th best fantasy defense against the QB. However the Pats have not really faced a stud quarterback, unless you count Matt Ryan as such.
RBs – Pierre Thomas had a solid game against the Bears in week 5 rushing 19 times with 9 catches, while Darren Sproles only had 3 rushes and 3 receptions. Sproles is only averaging 8 touches per game in the last 3 weeks. Good luck guessing which one gets the most touches this week.
Receiving – Colston is probably going to see a lot of Aqib Talib. Talib is the 3rd best shut down CB in the NFL per PFF. Graham seems unstoppable at this point, averaging almost 4 more FPPG than any other TE or WR.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The 4-1 Patriots were dominated by the Bengals defense in week 5. Brady’s consecutive games with a passing TD came to end at 52. This team does not look like a Super Bowl contender and they desperately need a healthy Gronk and Ridley back in their lineup ASAP. Things do not get any easier this week as they will face an explosive offense in the undefeated Saints.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Tom Brady just doesn’t look the same. Getting all his weapons back and healthy could make a huge difference. Amendola and Gronk have to play and be effective in order for Brady to come back to fantasy stardom. The Saints and their 12th rank pass defense are only allowing 14 FPPG VS the QB.
RBs – Ridley was back and limited at practice Wed. If he can go, you might see all 3 (Ridley, Blount & Bolden) backs used against the Saints. It’s a situation you should avoid.
Receiving – Expect Thompkins and Edelman to see a lot less targets with Gronk and Amendola both playing. Amendola only had 4 catches last week, but most importantly look healthy and was moving well. Rob Gronkowski ’s probable week 6 return will only help open lanes for him. Gronk will likely be on a limited snap count, but could still be very effective while on the field.