NFL Wild Card Odds: Patriots vs. Bills Picks and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-01-15 15:24:47

Patriots vs. Bills Odds

On Saturday evening, the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills will battle at Highmark Stadium. In Week 13, New England defeated Buffalo 14-10, despite totaling only 19 passing yards on three attempts. In the rematch at Gillette Stadium in Week 16, the Bills defeated the Patriots by a final score of 33-21 behind a big day from Josh Allen. In the third and final matchup between these two teams this season, oddsmakers are anticipating a Buffalo victory–pricing the Bills as 4.5-point home favorites on the spread. Let’s take a deeper dive into the data before revealing our free play on the game.

Patriots +4.5

Unquestionably, the biggest news on the offensive side of the ball for the Patriots this week surrounds offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn, who has been ruled out for Saturday’s action. His likely replacement, Justin Herron, is a significant downgrade in both pass protection and run blocking. Wynn’s absence could be a devastating blow for a New England offense that has struggled mightily to throw the football against Buffalo this season. If the Patriots are unable to run the ball on Saturday, it could be extremely difficult for this group to score points.

In 17 regular season games, opposing quarterbacks posted a 21-to-23 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and an abysmal 73.3 passer rating when facing the Patriots. New England’s secondary unit allowed the 3rd fewest yards-per-attempt through the air of any defense in the NFL this fall. From Week 7 to Week 18, opposing signal callers completed only 57.5 percent of their pass attempts, and only Josh Allen managed to throw for more than 206 yards against this unit. Yet, the Patriots have been surprisingly vulnerable on the ground during the second half of the season. Since Week 12, the Patriots have surrendered 164.0 rushing yards per game, allowing 5.3 yards-per-carry.

Bills -4.5

“(player-popup #josh-allen)Josh Allen”:/players/josh-allen-328331’s mid-season struggles took him out of the MVP conversation, but he still finished the regular season as Pro Football Focus’ 6th highest graded quarterback this fall. When Buffalo traveled to Foxborough in Week 16 with the division title on the line, Allen delivered a masterful performance–throwing for 314 yards and three touchdowns. Buffalo is capable of putting points on the board in this one, especially if they can tally another 100-yard game on the ground, as they did in Week 16.

The only pass defense better than New England’s this season was Buffalo’s. Only Tom Brady managed a 300-yard passing performance against the Bills in 2021. Removing Brady’s game from the data sample, Buffalo only allowed 101.1 passing yards per game from Week 11 to Week 18, holding Carson Wentz, Trevor Siemian, Mac Jones (twice), Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Zach Wilson each under 200 passing yards. During that span, these quarterbacks completed only 49.4 percent of their pass attempts. Against the run, Buffalo was elite from Week 1 to Week 10, allowing only 89.2 rushing yards per game. However, that number ballooned to 139.1 yards per game from Week 11 until the end of the regular season. The Patriots should once again find plenty of success on the ground, even with Wynn on the sidelines.

Wild Card Prediction

Josh Allen grew up in California. Mac Jones grew up in Florida. On Saturday, the temperature in Buffalo is forecasted to be in the single-digits with roughly 10 miles-per-hour winds making it feel even colder. Both of these defenses are most vulnerable to the run, but both secondary units are elite. In a game that is likely to feature a lot of running the ball, and few deep shots in the frigid playing conditions–the under has value. Expect a lower-scoring affair in this one.

PICK: Under 44

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