NHL Daily Plays: Friday, December 19th
Happy Friday, fellow NHL DFSers! Following Thursday’s smaller than normal 7-game slate, the NHL gives us a typically slow slate on Friday with 5 games from which we may select players for our lineups. A quick glance at the games hints that we have some fairly tight matchups, but this type of slate favors sharp minds.
As a public service announcement, in doing a survey of the pricing for these “Daily Plays,” as I am sure you all know, each daily site has the players priced rather differently. As such, some of the recommended bargain plays may not be bargain plays on, for example, FantasyAces or DraftDay.
Before we dig into today’s daily plays, let’s examine what the current Vegas lines are telling us. Any astute daily fantasy player must be in tune to Vegas lines and over/unders as “they” always know more than we do. Our job is to interpret what these numbers mean so that we can use them in populating a DFS lineup on your favorite site. In looking at the Vegas lines, the heavy favorites are the Red Wings (-130 over the Islanders) and the Flames (-111 over the Stars). Of the ten teams in action, only Anaheim is playing on back-to-back nights. This is good news as most top goaltenders should be in net today. That said, akin to NBA DFS, there will be times when we will make lineup decisions based off of which teams are the most rested.
Good luck! I will online for most of the day to answer questions in the comments section below or on Twitter @TheTonyM.
Goalies
Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalies listed below are starting prior to puck-drop
Evgeni Nabokov – Tampa Bay Lightning – As of the writing of this piece, the Vegas line for the Lightning at New Jersey Devils game is off, but at just $6,900, Nabokov feels like the must play cash netminder tonight. The Devils have lost five games in a row and eight of their last ten. Meanwhile, the Lightning are coming off a 3-1 over the Flyers in Philadelphia and played great defensive hockey and held a team that is averaging 29.4 shots per game to just 24 shots. Between the pipes during that win on Tuesday was Andrei Vasilevskii, but Nabokov should get the nod tonight. While Nabokov gave up three goals on twenty-one shots in replacing Ben Bishop against the Penguins, the team from Pittsburgh has a much more potent offense than the Devils who have averaged just 1.6 goals per game during their current losing streak.
Writer’s Note: If Nabokov is not confirmed prior to the times games lock, pivot over to Andrei Vasilevskii (if he gets the start) for just $5,000.
Other Goalies To Target (Cash Games) – Jonas Hiller, Jimmy Howard
Other Goalies To Target (Tournaments) –Frederik Andersen, Tuukka Rask
Forwards
Disclaimer –Steven Stamkos, Ryan Getzlaf, Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn carry a high price tag and may also be used as you see fit.
Mathieu Perreault – Winnipeg Jets – The over/under for the Bruins and Jets game is set at 5.0 goals and each team is carrying a minus moneyline, but the Jets are slightly favored over a Bruins team that has not found its identity yet this season. The game in Winnipeg should be a low-scoring affair, but if the Jets score, the production should be from its second line that has been skating well together over the last week. The most productive member of the line is Perreault, who is the left wing along with Mark Scheifele and Michael Frolik. With at least one point in five straight games and at least one point in six of his last seven games, Perreault, who also skates on the Jets’ first power play unit at the point with Dustin Byfuglien, should have no trouble paying of his $4,800 salary.
Gustav Nyquist – Detroit Red Wings – The second game that you will want exposure to tonight is the Red Wings and Islanders game. With at least one point in three of his last four games, Detroit’s first line left wing (who skates with Henrik Zetterberg and Justin Abdelkader) and second power play unit defenseman is underpriced given his recent production (3.7 FDP per game over his last four games). Moreover, look for the Red Wings, who have a top 10 power play unit, take advantage of the 4th worst penalty kill unit on home ice and the Wings’ first even strength line will likely play opposite of the Tavares line, which should free up space on the ice for the quick Wings.
Nikita Kucherov – Tampa Bay Lightning – In order to squeeze in your superstar skaters tonight, you will need to find value plays. You also want exposure to the Lightning/Devils game. With points in three straight games (1 G, 3 As), Kucherov, who skates with Ondrej Palat and Valtteri Filppula on the Lightning’s second line and with Anton Stralman at the point on the team’s second power play unit, may not get you exposure to Steven Stamkos, but he does get you exposure to the depth of the Lightning. With the Devils having the last line switch at home, coach Peter DeBoer may try to frustrate the Stamkos line with the more physical Devils’ lines. This should leave the Filppula/Palat/Kucherov line open to produce the most shots tonight against a team that has surrendered 3.20 goals per game during their current five game losing streak.
Other Forwards To Target (Cash Games) –Pavel Datsyuk, Reilly Smith, Matt Belesky, Jiri Hudler, Ryan Callahan
Other Forwards To Target (Tournaments) – Patrice Bergeron, Ryan Kesler, Justin Abdelkader, Bobby Ryan, Kyle Okposo, Devante Smith-Pelly
Defensemen
Disclaimer: Mark Giordano, Erik Karlsson and Victor Hedman are elite fantasy defensemen and can be used with confidence.
T.J. Brodie – Calgary Flames – If you cannot afford to pay up for the superstar defensemen taking the ice tonight, you may want to contemplate playing inexpensive blueliners. That said, another offense that you want to take advantage of tonight is the Calgary Flames on home ice tonight against a visiting Dallas Stars team that is giving up the most goals per game in the NHL. They also score the sixth most goals per game. These two statistics point towards the fact that Dallas plays a high-event game (see: league average is SF/GP, but give up 6th most SA/GP). With this in mind, the best way to attack this game is to get exposure to a Flames’ offense that will play up a few ticks against the Stars is to grab one of the Flames’ top D-men. Mark Giordano is always in play, but his price is reserved for GPPs. Grab Brodie who skates most of the games with Giordano and comes at a $2,400 discount. Yes, the Flames have dropped six in a row, but they are back at home and are playing a poor defensive squad.
Sami Vatanen – Anaheim Ducks – The suggested play here has more to do with Vatanen’s current price point and the thin position tonight than it does about his recent performance. At $4,300, Vatanen allows you a fairly inexpensive piece of a Ducks’ team who is averaging 3.5 GF/GP during their current six game road trip through Canada. Given a preference tonight, the play is to roster Vatanen at a thin position and use the forward slots to roster other offenses in better situations. Despite his lack of goals recently, the top defenseman for the Ducks has averaged 3.95 FDP per game over his last four games, and much of Vatanen’s production stems from his SOG and +/-, his fantasy totals are fairly safe. While the Ducks took a short trip from Montreal to Ottawa overnight, the quicker and more talented team should pull out a win tonight against a team that has dropped seven of their last ten games.
Other Defensemen To Target (Cash Games) – Torey Krug, Niklas Kronwall
Other Defensemen To Target (Tournaments) – Dan DeKeyser, Nick Leddy, John Klingberg