NHL Daily Plays: Friday, November 14th

Happy Friday, fellow NHL DFSers! I hope your Thursday was successful. I look forward to helping you cash once again.

Following Thursday’s typically hectic 9-game slate, the NHL gives us a standard “medium” slate on Friday with six games from which we may select players for our lineups. A quick glance at the matchups hints that we have some fairly lopsided matchups so tonight will depend on how accurately you can select your goal scorers from a “medium” slate of games.

As a public service announcement, in doing a survey of the pricing for these “Daily Plays,” as I am sure you all know, each daily site has the players priced rather differently. As such, some of the recommended bargain plays may not be bargain plays on, for example, FantasyAces or DraftDay.

Before we dig into today’s daily plays, let’s examine what the current Vegas lines are telling us. Any astute daily fantasy player must be in tune to Vegas lines and over/unders as “they” always know more than we do. Our job is to interpret what these numbers mean so that we can use them in populating a DFS lineup on your favorite site. In looking at the Vegas lines, the heavy favorites are the Canucks (-204 over the Coyotes), the Capitals (-150 over the Devils), and the Penguins (-145 over the Leafs). Of the twelve teams in action, only the Coyotes are playing on back-to-back nights. The Bruins travelled through Canada from Calgary to Vancouver. Akin to NBA DFS, there will be times when we will make lineup decisions based off of which teams are the most rested.

Good luck! I will online for most of the day to answer questions in the comments section below or on Twitter @TheTonyM.

Goalies

Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalies listed below are starting prior to puck-drop

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Ryan Miller – Vancouver Canucks – The Canucks are skating on home ice tonight in a game that Vegas has handicapped the Canucks as the largest favorite of the slate. Currently sitting with a -201 moneyline, while they are playing on back-to-back nights, the Arizona Coyotes are taking on a Vancouver Canucks team that is 5-2 at home and has won eight of their last ten games with the two losses coming in Los Angeles and home against a then-hot Nashville team. Meanwhile, the Coyotes have not been playing great hockey and their 5-3 loss last night to the Calgary Flames was indicative of how they have skated over the first month of the season. With the start of the new season in a fresh home, Miller has reminded us of why he was an Olympic goaltender and he is starting to show glimpses of why he was thought of as one of the top goalies in the NHL. His 2.46 GAA and .910 SV% have been impressive and he leads the NHL in wins. With a “win” on FD being weighted so heavily, start Miller in your cash games as he is the most likely netminder to earn the “W” on Friday. Lock this pick in.

Writer’s Note: As of this publication, early on Friday morning, Miller has not yet been confirmed. Eddie Lack is currently the backup to Miller. If Lack gets the nod for the Canucks, pivot to him and use the $1,900 savings on a superstar skater.

Other goalies I like tonight that are likely to be get the win are Braden Holtby, Jaroslav Halak, and Steve Mason.

Forwards

Disclaimer – Alexander Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and John Tavares carry a high price tag and may also be used as you see fit.

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Claude Giroux – Philadelphia Flyers – To start, Giroux belongs in the disclaimer, but I felt the need to discuss him and one of his linemates (below) today as we are going heavy Flyers and Capitals. The first line center and first power play unit defenseman (who qualifies as a C on FD) has registered at least one point in three straight games and in 8 of his last 10 games. Giroux is the the fourth most expensive center on the night, but when a skater averaging 1.29 points per game over his first fourteen games and faces a Blue Jackets team that skates at a much slower pace than the Flyers, you roster that skater. In fact, Giroux has averaged 5.4 FPPG (FD fantasy points per game). At just $8,200, Giroux is underpriced given his production on the season. The centerman’s price tag has remained relatively flat since last week, but on an evening where you have a few superstar skaters in play, you must make sure to select the right one. Spend up at your first center slot and grab Giroux, who comes at a significant discount compared to Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin who are both on the road.

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Nicklas Backstrom – Washington Capitals – With points in five of his last six games, Backstrom centers the Capitals first even strength line with wingers Alexander Ovechkin and Jay Beagle. He also centers the team’s first power play line and skates with Marcus Johansson and Troy Brouwer on his wings. As -145 moneyline favorites on home ice against the visiting New Jersey Devils, you will want exposure to Ovechkin and one relatively inexpensive way to do so is with Backstrom, who has nine points in his last six games (an average of 4.13 FPPG) and has taken an impressive 30 shots on goal. If you need to save up at your second center slot, another cheap Capital to pivot to is Beagle, who is just $3,400.

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Jakub Voracek – Philadelphia Flyers – Again, like Giroux, Voracek is a disclaimer play, but the Flyers offense is one to attack tonight. The price point for Voracek, a first line winger who skates with Claude Giroux and Wayne Simmonds on the first even strength line and with Brayden Schenn and Simmonds on the Flyers’ first power play unit, is fair and possibly a few hundred dollars inexpsenive, but on a night with just six games, you want to pay for a safe floor. At $8,600, Voracek is by no means a value play, but over the past eight games, the winger has logged scored an amazing fifteen point, which includes a total of four goals and 11 assists. Moreover, Voracek is averaging 1.57 points per game and he also has an excellent 49 shots on goal. With the Flyers expected to be heavy favorites against the Blue Jackets, they are sure to score at least a few goals and Voracek should be involved in at least two. Keep in mind that Voracek’s 12% shooting percentage is above his career average and it will regress, but for now, ride the hot hand.

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Nikolai Kulemin – New York Islanders – Prior to scoring a goal and recording an assist three nights ago on home ice against the struggling, Colorado Avalanche, Kulemin had failed to register a point since October 25 on home ice against the Stars.A bump up to the Islanders’ first line alongside John Tavares and Kyle Okposo seemed to have sparked the winger’s scoring touch. On a night where you will want to spend at your two center slots and at least one wing slot, you need to find a value skater who provides you with exposure to top notch scorers. In comes Kulemin, who while not skating at home, will face a Florida Panthers team that plays at a slower pace than the Islanders, and should struggle to contain Tavares and his linemates.

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Troy Brouwer – Washington Capitals – If you need another value winger that provides you with exposure to Alexander Ovechkin, roster Brouwer, who is cheaper than Nicklas Backstrom, but skates on the Capitals’ first power play unit on a line with Backstrom and Marcus Johansson and with Ovechkin and Mike Green at the two points. The critical (and contrasting) statistics here are that the Capitals own the second best power play in the NHL (28% PP scoring rate) and the New Jersey Devils own the worst penalty kill in the NHL. In 50 power play opportunities, the Capitals have scored 14 goals while the Devils have surrendered an awful 21 power play goals on 63 shorthanded situations. With at least one point in six of his last seven games, Brouwer’s price tag has hit the $5K mark for the first time this season, but the exposure that he gives you to a top power play unit against the worst penalty kill team should make the decision to roster Brouwer easy.

Other forwards that I like tonight are Henrik Sedin, Jonathan Toews, Nick Bonino, Wayne Simmonds, Marcus Johansson, and Brock Nelson.

A few GPP options I like tonight are Bryan Bickell, David Clarkson, Steve Downie, Sean Couturier, and Tyler Bozak.

Defensemen

Disclaimer: Kris Letang and Duncan Keith are elite fantasy defensemen and can be used with confidence.

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Cody Franson – Toronto Maple Leafs – With 10 points (2 goals, 8 assists) in 14 games, Franson has been on a tear over the Leafs’ past five contests. During that time span, Franson recorded at least point per game with a total of one goal and six assists. In fact, over his past ten games, Franson failed to score more than 2.2 fantasy points in just two games. While Vegas has the visiting Penguins as -139 moneyline favorites tonight in Toronto, both teams skate in high-paced games so look for the over of 5.5 goals to hit. The one downside of starting a Leaf tonight against the Pens is that FD subtracts one full point for each “minus” that he incurs. However, the Leafs will score their share of even strength goals and coach, Randy Carlyle, will give Franson and his defensive pairmate, Dion Phaneuf, at least 20:00 of ice time tonight, which should increase the chances that Franson is on the ice for the Leafs’ goals.

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Niklas Kronwall – Detroit Red Wings – In what might be the most fun game of the day to watch from a purely hockey perspective, the Red Wings play host to the Chicago Blackhawks. As of this publication, the over/under is sitting at 5 goals and Vegas actually has the Blackhawks as -123 moneyline favorites, which makes sense as the Blackhawks have been playing the best hockey of the two teams over the last week. However, early sharp money appears heavily sided with the Wings and the moneyline. In comes the Wing’s top D-man. With 12 points on the season (3 goals, 9 assists) and two points in each of his last two games, Kronwall has been heavily involved in the Wings’ offensive attack and he is averaging a healthy 24:28 minutes of ice time per game. Moreover, 4 of Kronwall’s assists have come on the Wings’ power play, which is critical as FD awards bonus points for any goal or assist scored with the man advantage. Paired with Henrik Zetterberg on the power play and with Jonathan Ericsson on the team’s first even strength defensive unit, Kronwall will lead the Wings’ attack in what will be a “high-event” game as both teams are above average in both TG/G as well as SF/GP and SA/GP. That is, the more total goals per game as well as shots for and shots against per game for a team, the more scoring opportunities exist, which, of course, leads to more fantasy points.

Other defensemen I like tonight are Alexander Edler, Mike Green, Dion Phaneuf, Yannick Weber, and Lubomir Visnovsky.

About the Author

TheTonyM
Tony Mauriello (TheTonyM)

A 25-year fantasy sports veteran and a California and New York licensed corporate transactional attorney by day, Tony has been a part of the daily fantasy sports world for four years and joined the RotoGrinders team prior to the 2013-2014 NHL season. A Duke law graduate and Boston sports (and Eagles) fan, he is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and contributes to Rotoworld, FantasyPros, and ProjectRoto. Please feel free to contact him at any time on twitter @TheTonyM with your fantasy sports questions.