NHL Daily Plays: October 31, 2013
Happy Halloween! There are just three games on the NHL short slate tonight, which is a drastic difference compared to the league’s typical Thursday night action. There are a not many stars in play tonight, but the focus of this piece is to find those players who are going to be less highly owned which should hopefully allow you to take down a GPP. Over DraftKings, there are not many featured tournaments, but we do have the are the $500 Face-Off (down from the standard $1,500 or $2,500 prize) with a $27 buy-in and the $1,000 High-Roller (down from $3,500 last week) with a $109 buy-in. The tournaments are down today due to the low number of teams in action tonight.
I expect tonight to be a fairly low scoring night both on the ice and on the fake ice. Boston (-134 ML favorites) at home against the Ducks is an intriguing game. The Rangers are -184 ML favorites at MSG against the Sabres. Finally, the Coyotes are -160 ML favorites at home hosting the Predators. In looking at the matchups, Anaheim is 8-2 over their last 10 games while Boston is 7-3 over their last 10. Interestingly, the over is 5-2 in the teams’ last 7 meetings in Boston. Sharp money is with the Bruins. Just East over at MSG, the Rangers look prime for a “W” so it might be wise to spend on the King. Moreover, the Sabres are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings against the Rangers and the under is 6-1-3 in the last 10 meetings between the teams. Finally, in Phoenix, expect a Coyotes victory. Their win-loss record is not indicative of how well they have actually played (and scored).
As always, the way I approach setting my daily fantasy hockey lineups each day is that I analyze the various Vegas metrics that are published each day. Generally, I start my lineup by locking in a goaltender from a team I believe will win the game in which I believe the under will hit. Thus, if the moneyline, or ML, is set at -165 or higher and the over/under, or O/U, is at 5, grab that starting goalie. I will fill out my skaters from the top few lines of teams where I believe the over will hit. It is also critical to ensure that your skaters get plenty of power play time. While I pay less attention to total statistics over the course of a season, I will take into consideration a player’s production over the last 5 games to get a sense of his trend.
Goalies
Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalie listed below is starting prior to puck-drop
Henrik Lundqvist – New York Rangers – After taking the loss against the Canadiens on Monday night, Lundqvist should be back in goal tonight on home ice against a Sabres team, who recently pulled off a trade with the Islanders, but have yet to find their identity this season. Yes, the Rangers have their own unanswered questions, and even with a somewhat pedestrian (for him) 3.25 GAA and .895 SV% while carrying a 2-5 record this season, King Henrik should earn the “W” while stopping enough shots to justify his bargain bin price of just $7,900 on DraftKings. If you want to spend a bit more on a goalie, some alternatives are Tuukka Rask ($10,000 – at home against Anaheim) and Mike Smith ($9,500 – at home hosting Nashville).
Forwards
Disclaimer – Corey Perry, Matt Moulson, Ryan Getzlaf and Shea Weber may also be used as you see fit.
David Krejci – Boston Bruins – At $7,800 on DraftKings, Krejci is on home ice against a tough Ducks team that is 5-3-0 on the road and is 8-2 in their last ten games. I can see this game going both ways, but am fading the Ducks. If you go with the Ducks against a Bruins team that is 7-3 in its last ten games, then pay for Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf. Skating on the second day in a row, look for Krejci to score a goal or log an assist while recording some SOGs and, possibly, some PIMs. On the season, Krejci has 2Gs, 10As, 12 PIMs, 19 SOG and carries a healthy +8. Playing on the first line with Milan Lucic and Jarome Iginla, look for the Bruins top line to continue to produce.
Milan Lucic – Boston Bruins – In a GPP, if you are fading the Ducks, you may as well pay up the $7,200 for Lucic, who, as noted above, skates on the wing with Krejci and Iginla and also sees power play time with the same linemates. Lucic is a steal at this price on DraftKings considering the fact that he has logged at least one point in 8 of his last 9 games. With 6Gs, 5As, a +7, 12 PIMs and 21 SOG, Lucic is the sparkplug that continues to keep the Bruins moving by filling up the stat sheet. Invest in Lucic now before his price starts to climb towards the $8K figure.
Derek Stepan – New York Rangers – Where the production will come from the Rangers in any given day is tough to predict, but as heavy money line favorites against the visiting Sabres, I almost feel the need to take a shot at one of the skaters whom I think will earn back at least his value of $4,600 tonight. While Stepan has yet to record a goal this season, he does have 7 assists (with 6 of them coming on the power play) to go along with his 20 SOG in 11 games. At just 1.818 shots per game, Stepan has clearly moved into a helper role on the Rangers’ second line with Chris Kreider and Mats Zuccarello. However, he does center the team’s primary power play unit and Brad Richards plays on the left point. So, in what may be a chippy game between the two New York State teams, Stepan may find himself logging plenty of power play minutes (and, thus, points) as his opponents sit in the box.
Shane Doan – Phoenix Coyotes – After not having notched a point in his first five games on the season, Doan has come on strong over the past few games and is now playing on the Coyotes’ second power play unit and second line with Rob Klinkhammer (who was featured last week in my piece and reached value) and Antoine Vermette. Priced reasonably at $5,300, Doan has always had a knack of being around the net during the power play, which is where has earned many of points this season, including six points in his last seven games. While logging almost twenty minutes of ice time per game, Doan should earn his value back tonight at home hosting the Nashville Predators. As heavy money line favorites (-160 as of this publication), the Coyotes should put enough pucks in the net to earn the win and Doan should be swarming around the next to get his share. In fact, as a trend, in the teams’ last 4 matchups, the Coyotes are 4-0 in Phoenix.
Defensemen
Keith Yandle – Phoenix Coyotes – Given Yandle’s recent production, he is a must start at home against the Predators. While his start to the 2013-2014 was nothing to write home about, the first unit D-man has come on strong having notched seven points over the past 4 games. While logging a solid 21:51 ATOI, on the season, Yandle has 1G, 8As, 6 PIMs and 26 SOG. At $6,200, you may want to look elsewhere for production, but on this short slate night, you have plenty of cap space so plug this D-man into your lineup and expect a few blocked shots to go along with a few helpers.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Phoenix Coyotes – Here is another defenseman on the Coyotes. I would not typically recommend playing two D-men from the same team, but there should be enough production from the team’s power play unit that, on a short slate night, you can play both with confidence, especially in a GPP. Playing two D-men from one team can be tricky, however, Ekman-Larsson is ranked third in the NHL among all defensemen in scoring having logged 3Gs and 7As. Moreover, six of OEL’s points have come in skating on the Coyotes’ power play. At $5,800 (and rising), OEL is a must play tonight in light of his scoring trend and his gaudy 25:06 ATOI.