NHL Daily Plays: Saturday, January 17th
Happy Saturday, fellow NHL DFSers! Following Friday’s small six-game slate, the NHL gives us a typically busy slate on Saturday with twelve games from which we may select players for our lineups. A quick glance at the games hints that we have some fairly lopsided matchups, so tonight will depend on how accurately you can select your goal scorers from a large slate of games. We will also try to unearth Thursday’s version of Aleksander Barkov.
As a public service announcement, in doing a survey of the pricing for these “Daily Plays,” as I am sure you all know, each daily site has the players priced rather differently. As such, some of the recommended bargain plays may not be bargain plays on, for example, Victiv or DraftDay.
Before we dig into today’s daily plays, let’s examine what the current Vegas lines are telling us. Any astute daily fantasy player must be in tune to Vegas lines and over/unders as “they” always know more than we do. Our job is to interpret what these numbers mean so that we can use them in populating a DFS lineup on your favorite site. In looking at the Vegas lines, the heavy favorites are the the Blues (-212 over the Maple Leafs), the Lightning (-195 over the Avalanche), the Panthers (-190 over the Oilers), the Wild (-180 over the Coyotes), the Sharks (-166 over the Flames) and the Senators (-158) over the Hurricanes. Of the twenty-four teams in action, the Capitals, Islanders and Hurricanes are playing on back-to-back nights. This is good news as most top goaltenders should be in net today, which includes a few who have already been confirmed. That said, akin to NBA DFS, there will be times when we will make lineup decisions based off of which teams are the most rested.
Good luck! I will online for most of the day to answer questions in the comments section below or on Twitter @TheTonyM.
Goalies
Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalies listed below are starting prior to puck-drop
Brian Elliott – St. Louis Blues – As of the writing of this piece, the Vegas moneyline for the Blues and Leafs game in St. Louis is sitting at -212, which makes the Blues the heaviest favorite on the evening. On the surface, Elliott may not look like a goalie that you want to pay up for in your cash games this evening due to his shaky recent performance (3-1-1 and a no decision since his return to the Blues in late December). However, aside from the embarrassing performance against the Hurricanes a week ago, Elliott has a GAA of just 2.16 and a save percentage of .913%. Moreover, Elliott and the Blues are on home ice and are facing a Leafs team that has dropped three in a row and scored just one goal during that span, despite averaging 24 S/GP. While the Leafs are an average team with respect to shots on goal per game, they average the seventh-most goals per game. That said, the Leafs have struggled mightily on the road this season and with this being a get-away game, look for them to lose again. At $8,800, Elliott is just the 13th-most expensive netminder on the night, and assuming he earns a win, he can give up a goal or two to the Leafs and still hit your target value. The play here has more to do with the Blues’ overall chances of winning the game against a team that simply cannot score any goals during their current road trip. A shutout is a definite possibility tonight for Elliott, which adds upside to this play.
Other Goalies To Target (Cash Games) – Craig Anderson, Roberto Luongo
Other Goalies To Target (Tournaments) – Devan Dubnyk, Rob Zepp, Ben Bishop
Forwards
Disclaimer – Steven Stamkos, Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Zach Parise, Tyler Seguin, Alexander Ovechkin and Max Pacioretty carry a high price tag and may also be used as you see fit.
Ondrej Palat – Tampa Bay Lighting – How many of you thought the Oilers could put up two goals and hold the Lightning to just three goals on Thursday? OK, I know a few of you felt that the Lightning would put up a disappointing performance against a poor team. The one player that showed up was the team’s second even strength line and first power play unit left wing, who scored two of team’s goals against the Oilers. With two points in each of his last two games (2 Gs, 2 As), Palat is one of the hottest players on the Lightning right now. At $7,100, Palat is more expensive than teammates Ryan Callahan ($5,800) and Nikita Kucherov ($5,800), but what the extra salary buys you is exposure to Tyler Johnson and Kucherov (on the second line) and to Steven Stamkos , Johnson (at the point) and Kucherov (on the first power play unit). As the second heaviest favorite of the night with an over/under set at 5.5 goals, you must have exposure to the Lightning in your cash games.
Bobby Ryan – Ottawa Senators – Ryan’s Senators are -158 ML favorites on home ice against a Carolina Hurricanes team that was shut out last night on home ice. The Sens have won two of their last three games and their second line and first power play unit right wing is the catalyst for the team’s recent success. With at least one point in his last four games (1 G, 4 As) and points in seven of his last nine games (5 Gs, 5 As), Ryan’s price tag recently jumped above the $7K mark for the first time this season. But as the team’s top scorer, he should have no trouble recording a few points against a team that is giving up the 12th-most goals per game and is also giving up the fifth-most shots per game. Vegas set the over/under at just 5.0, which makes sense as the Hurricanes play one of the slowest paced and lowest-event games in the NHL. The Senators play around a league average pace, but with the ‘Canes traveling north overnight, they may have tired legs, which should give the quicker team the advantage, especially with the last line switch. Ryan typically goes under-owned, but buy in on him tonight and he should lead his team to a 3-1 victory.
Wayne Simmonds – Philadelphia Flyers – Any time a team plays the Buffalo Sabres, you need some exposure to the opposing team. Simmonds, who is just $6,100 on FD, is much cheaper than teammates, Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux, but he gets you exposure to both of those skaters on the team’s first power play and also provides you exposure to Brayden Schenn and R.J. Umberger as well. The right winger has been held off the scoresheet in the last two games, but in a game that has the Flyers as -176 favorites with an over/under at 5.5, look for the Flyers’ second even strength line, including Simmonds, to put a few pucks in the net as the Sabres’ “top” line may try to stifle the Flyers’ first line of Giroux, Voracek and Michael Raffl. When considering whether to attack the Flyers’ second line, keep in mind that Simmonds averages more shots per game than his linemates and he is also more likely to earn PIMs. At $6,100, Simmonds is a mid-range value play that will allow you to save cap space to pay up for a superstar skater.
Other Forwards To Target (Cash Games) – Vladimir Tarasenko, Alexander Steen, Jaden Schwartz, David Krejci, Bobby Ryan
Other Forwards To Target (Tournaments) – Jimmy Hayes, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson, Vincent Trocheck and Brayden Schenn, Reilly Smith, Brad Boyes
Defensemen
Disclaimer: Mark Giordano, Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns, Shea Weber and Kevin Shattenkirk are elite fantasy defensemen and can be used with confidence.
Torey Krug – Boston Bruins – For the second article in a row, Krug appears as my top recommended defenseman. With at least two points in his last two games and at least one point in his past five games (7 As), Krug is running the Bruins’ offense from the point even though Zdeno Chara is back on the ice. What’s interesting is that while Chara is seeing the most volume of ice time of the Bruins’ blueliners, Krug is seeing just as many total shifts. Krug’s average time on ice per shift is just shorter than Chara’s. The thought here is that while Chara is keeping the team’s defensive front steady, he does not have the power to drive the offense, which coach Claude Julien has given to the young D-man. The story of the game is that the Blue Jackets have lost four in a row, while the rejuvenated Bruins have ripped off five wins in a row and should continue that streak tonight.
Jared Spurgeon – Minnesota Wild – There is nothing like a game against the Buffalo Sabres to cure a team’s woes. Prior to the Wild’s 7-0 smashing of the Sabres on Thursday, the team had lost six in a row and scored just 1.67 goals per game during that streak. In that game, Spurgeon, who stepped up in one of the team’s top D-man roles for the suspended Ryan Suter, scored one goal, earned a +4 and had two shots on goal. Spurgeon skated with Nate Prosser during even strength but logged significant minutes on the team’s power play with Jason Pominville at the other point. At $4,000 on FD, Spurgeon’s price is not reflective of the role he was thrust into with Suter out of action. In a game that Vegas has set the Wild as a -180 ML favorite against a Coyotes team that has dropped three in a row, look for Spurgeon to log an assist, fire the puck on net a few times and earn a decent plus/minus.
Other Defensemen To Target (Cash Games) – Mark Streit, Mike Green, Aaron Ekblad
Other Defensemen To Target (Tournaments) – Andrei Markov, Roman Josi, Andrew MacDonald