NHL Daily Plays: Thursday, December 11th

Happy Thursday, fellow NHL DFSers! Thanks to all of you for your very kind comments are a successful night of action last week.

Following Wednesday’s typically slow 2-game slate, the NHL gives us the usually busy slate on Thursday with 10 games from which we may select players for our lineups. A quick glance at the matchups hints that we have some fairly lopsided matchups so tonight will depend on how accurately you can select your goal scorers from a large slate of games.

As a public service announcement, in doing a survey of the pricing for these “Daily Plays,” as I am sure you all know, each daily site has the players priced rather differently. As such, some of the recommended bargain plays may not be bargain plays on, for example, FantasyAces or DraftDay.

Before we dig into today’s daily plays, let’s examine what the current Vegas lines are telling us. Any astute daily fantasy player must be in tune to Vegas lines and over/unders as “they” always know more than we do. Our job is to interpret what these numbers mean so that we can use them in populating a DFS lineup on your favorite site. In looking at the Vegas lines, the heavy favorites are the Lightning (-225 over the Hurricanes), the Capitals (-179 over the Blue Jackets), the Flames (-158 over the Sabres), the Predators (-147 over the Coyotes), and the Sharks (-139 over the Wild). Of the twenty teams in action, no team is playing on back-to-back nights. This is good news as most top goaltenders should be in net today. That said, akin to NBA DFS, there will be times when we will make lineup decisions based off of which teams are the most rested.

Good luck! I will online for most of the day to answer questions in the comments section below or on Twitter @TheTonyM.

Goalies

Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalies listed below are starting prior to puck-drop

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Pekka Rinne – Nashville Predators – During the Lightning’s morning skate, Evgeni Nabokov skated off the ice first and he is confirmed in net. Ben Bishop was initially the cornerstone of the article today, but with Nabokov starting, he is a GPP play only and should not be trusted in your cash game lineups and he is the same price ($6,900) as Jake Allen (see below) and I prefer Allen. Instead of rolling out Nabokov, if you want to pay up for a goaltender, grab Rinne at $8,500. The Predators are -147 moneyline favorites in Arizona today and face a Coyotes team that has struggled mightily in December as well as November. The team has lost three in a row and put up just a total of four goals in those three losses. While they have averaged just 27 shots during the losing streak, at $8.5K, Rinne, who has lost just two games since mid-November and carries a .934 SV% on the season, should hit value if he gets the “W” and faces those same 27 shots.

Writer’s Note: If Rinne is not confirmed, pivot over to Karri Ramo for $7,300 or Jake Allen, as discussed below.

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Jake Allen – St. Louis Blues – Depending on your risk tolerance tonight, take a roll of the dice on Allen on home ice against the visiting New York Islanders. The Vegas line is currently off for this game (as is the over/under), but I expect is to come in as -155 in favor of the Blues with an over/under of 5.5. Both teams play a high-paced and high-event style of game, but the Blues have been a fantastic team on home ice where they are 10-3-1. The Isles have averaged 4 goals over their last two games, which were both losses, including one on home ice to the same Blues team they face tonight. Allen is coming off his worst game in his NHL career against these Islanders last week, but coach, Ken Hitchcock, already confirmed him in net and this psychological tactic should boost Allen’s confidence so that he can regain the form he was in earlier this season. On the season, Allen does have a 2.50 GAA and a .908 SV%, which are league average, but Allen will be looking to redeem himself as he surely does not want to be pulled in favor of a future Hall of Famer for the second outing in a row. Again, this is a GPP play, but his price tag on FD of just $6,900 allows you more flexibility to stack top skaters.

Other Goalies To Target (Cash Games) – Jonathan Quick, Karri Ramo, Michael Hutchinson

Other Goalies To Target (Tournaments) – Antti Niemi (if healthy), Braden Holtby

Forwards

Disclaimer – Steven Stamkos, Claude Giroux, Alexander Ovechkin and James Neal carry a high price tag and may also be used as you see fit.

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Tyler Johnson – Tampa Bay Lightning – At just $5,900 on FD (and $5,900 on DK), Johnson provides your lineup with relatively cheap exposure to the Lightning’s offense that the Nils Model dictates should score 4 goals tonight against the Carolina Hurricanes. The model actually predicts 3.87 total goals, but the point here is that you will want exposure to both of the team’s first and second even strength lines and first and second power play lines. Predicting where production will come from on the Lightning has been tough as of late, but if you roster Johnson, who centers the 2nd even strength line (with Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov) and the 2nd PP line (with Palat and Brett Connolly), you get exposure to four other skaters and if you can squeeze in Steven Stamkos, you get exposure to the team’s 1st line and 1st PP unit. Currently on a point per game average this season, Johnson now has at least one point in six of his last seven games. The center’s average floor is roughly 4.2375 FDP over his last eight games and he should pay that price tag off tonight.

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Vladimir Tarasenko – St. Louis Blues – This suggested play feels a little like cheating, but his price tag is at a point where you must take advantage of it, especially when he skates at home. In your cash games tonight, you will want at least one piece of the “S-T-L line” and at just $7,000, Tarasenko feels like the must play. Sure, Jori Lehtera is the glue that holds the line together, but Tarasenko is the muscle. With at least one point in three straight games and at least one point in five of his last six games, Tarasenko appears poised to boost his price tag over the next few games. Much like the Lightning’s offense, grabbing a piece of the Blues’ top six skaters locks in a safe floor. Along with linemates Lehtera and Jaden Schwartz, Tarasenko will face off against an Islanders team that has the displeasure of owning the worst penalty kill unit in the NHL. Look for the Blues to score four goals this evening and the top line in St. Louis should create at least two of them.

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Andrew Ladd – Winnipeg Jets – After the Lightning and Blues, the third offense that you will want exposure to this evening is that of the high-powered Winnipeg Jets, who have won three of their last four games and five of their last seven games. During that game span, the team has scored an average of 3.42 goals per game, which includes a one goal OT loss to the defensive-minded Bruins in Boston. The Jets have received production from all six of its top skaters, but Ladd now has at least one point in three straight games. Over that span, he has six total points (2 Gs, 4 As) and his linemates, Bryan Little and Blake Wheeler have a total of eleven points between them. So, with a massive seven goals and eleven assists in their last three games, the “LLW line” (yes, I just made that up) is a relatively cheap stack on the road in Colorado against an Avalanche team that has given up a total of twelve goals in its last three games. Thus, we have an offense and defense that are playing a contrasting brand of hockey. Grab a piece of the Jets’ top six in Ladd at just $6,400 on FD.

Other Forwards To Target (Cash Games) – Niklas Backstrom, Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little, Patrick Marleau, Filip Forsberg

Other Forwards To Target (Tournaments) – Mike Ribeiro, Johnny Gaudreau, Joel Ward

Defensemen

Disclaimer – Mark Giordano, Brent Burns, Shea Weber and Victor Hedman are elite fantasy defensemen and can be used with confidence.

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Jacob Trouba – Winnipeg Jets – Sadly, my current favorite defenseman in the NHL, Victor Hedman, made his way back to the “Disclaimer” section above so I cannot write him up. As we lose one D-man, another pops up in his stead. As mentioned in the Ladd write-up, grabbing exposure to the Jets’ offense is a must for your cash games. With injuries to three of the team’s defensemen, Trouba was called upon to step up and lead the team from the blue line. While Dustin Byfuglien was pushed back to the point from the offense, it has been the 20-year-old that seemingly sparked the Jets’ attack. With eight points (2 Gs, 6 As) in his last seven games, Trouba has averaged 4.93 FDP per game over that time span. If you want to grab two skaters from the Jets but want to reserve your forward slots for other teams, roster Trouba at one D-slot and then pay up for Ladd.

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John Carlson – Washington Capitals – As -179 moneyline favorites on home ice tonight against the visiting Columbus Blue Jackets, another defenseman with a safe floor over the past two weeks is the Capitals’ top defenseman, who is paired with Brooks Orpik on the team’s first defensive pairing and the team’s second power play unit. Carlson is riding a two game point streak in which he has also has a total of ten shots on goal to go along with a +4 rating. The D-man also has at least one point in his five of his last six games during which he has two goals and six assists. While the Blue Jackets are starting to get healthy, the Capitals have also looked solid during their current three game winning streak. The difference tonight will be that the Caps’ 2nd best PP will take advantage of the matchup against the Blue Jackets’ 6th worst PK unit. Carlson may not see much ice time with Alex Ovechkin on the PP, but at $4,500, he provides you cheap exposure to a potent offense.

Other Defensemen To Target (Cash Games) – Matt Niskanen, Kevin Shattenkirk, Alex Pietrangelo

Other Defensemen To Target (Tournaments) – Duncan Keith, Dustin Byfuglien, John Carlson, T.J. Brodie

About the Author

TheTonyM
Tony Mauriello (TheTonyM)

A 25-year fantasy sports veteran and a California and New York licensed corporate transactional attorney by day, Tony has been a part of the daily fantasy sports world for four years and joined the RotoGrinders team prior to the 2013-2014 NHL season. A Duke law graduate and Boston sports (and Eagles) fan, he is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and contributes to Rotoworld, FantasyPros, and ProjectRoto. Please feel free to contact him at any time on twitter @TheTonyM with your fantasy sports questions.