NHL Daily Plays: Thursday, December 18th
Happy Thursday, fellow NHL DFSers! Following Wednesday’s typically slow 3-game slate, the NHL gives us the usually busy slate on Thursday with 7 games from which we may select players for our lineups. A quick glance at the matchups hints that we have some fairly lopsided matchups, so tonight will depend on how accurately you can select your goal scorers from a large slate of games.
As a public service announcement, in doing a survey of the pricing for these “Daily Plays,” as I am sure you all know, each daily site has the players priced rather differently. As such, some of the recommended bargain plays may not be bargain plays on, for example, FantasyAces or DraftDay.
Before we dig into today’s daily plays, let’s examine what the current Vegas lines are telling us. Any astute daily fantasy player must be in tune to Vegas lines and over/unders as “they” always know more than we do. Our job is to interpret what these numbers mean so that we can use them in populating a DFS lineup on your favorite site. In looking at the Vegas lines, the heavy favorites are the Sharks (-249 over the Oilers), the Kings (-140 over the Blues), the Leafs (-138 over the Hurricanes), and the Flyers (-138 over the Panthers). Of the fourteen teams in action, no team is playing on back-to-back nights. This is good news as most top goaltenders should be in net today. That said, akin to NBA DFS, there will be times when we will make lineup decisions based off of which teams are the most rested.
Good luck! I will online for most of the day to answer questions in the comments section below or on Twitter @TheTonyM.
Goalies
Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalies listed below are starting prior to puck-drop
Antti Niemi – San Jose Sharks – As the heaviest Vegas favorite on the night, Niemi is the clear cash game play against an Edmonton Oilers team that lost five in a row and 9 of their last ten games. The sole Oilers’ win during their last ten games was a 2-1 defensive battle against this same San Jose team, who now gets to host the Oilers in the Shark Tank. In their nine losses over their last 10 games, the Oilers have managed just an average of 1.44 goals per game. If you factor in their one victory, their GF/GP is still just 1.5. At $9,900, Niemi is the third most expensive netminder tonight, but he clearly has the best matchup against a team that appears poised to “earn” the top pick in the next draft. The one downside with this play is that the Oilers are averaging just 24.8 shots per game over the last ten games, which limits Niemi’s upside.
Writer’s Note: If Niemi is not confirmed prior to the times games lock, pivot over to Alex Stalock (if he gets the start) for $7,600 or Steve Mason, as discussed below.
Steve Mason – Philadelphia Flyers – Depending on your risk tolerance tonight, take a roll of the dice on Mason on home ice against the visiting Florida Panthers. The Vegas line has the Flyers as just a -138 ML favorite, which is less than I like to target on a large slate of games, but with the matchups being fairly tight tonight, Mason should be in line for a win. The Flyers did disappoint fantasy owners on Tuesday and Mason has lost seven of his last nine starts. This appears ugly on the surface, but over his last four starts (two wins), he has given up an average of just 1.75 GA/GP. At $9,200, this is a GPP play, but with many owners looking to Niemi or Jonathan Bernier tonight, Mason should be under-owned and should face more shots than Niemi as the Panthers are averaging 30.8 SF/GP compared to the Oilers 28.5 SF/GP this season.
Other Goalies To Target (Cash Games) – Jonathan Bernier
Other Goalies To Target (Tournaments) – Marc-Andre Fleury, Braden Holtby
Forwards
Disclaimer –Evgeni Malkin, Claude Giroux, Alexander Ovechkin and Phil Kessel carry a high price tag and may also be used as you see fit.
Blake Comeau – Pittsburgh Penguins – While the Vegas line is off as of this publication for the Penguins/Avalanche game, look for the Penguins to be -155 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 5.5. Both teams play in the top quarter of the NHL in terms of high-event hockey with the Avalanche being a slightly quicker paced team given the fact that they give up the third most goals per game. With that in mind, the Pens’ offense is one to attack tonight. Injuries and illnesses have left Pittsburgh without Sidney Crosby and Chris Kunitz. This left a void on the wing of the Malkin line, which has been filled by Comeau, who, at $5,000, will provide you cheap exposure to one of the top offenses of the night. While the winger does not skate with the top power play line, he does look to have chemistry with Steve Downie on the team’s second PP unit.
UPDATE: It looks as if Crosby will return tonight. Comeau should skate with Brandon Sutter and Steve Downie on the 2nd line and 2nd PP unit. At $5,000, Comeau provides cheap exposure to a top offense tonight against a poor puck control team.
James van Riemsdyk – Toronto Maple Leafs – This suggested play feels a little like cheating, but his price tag is at a point where you must take advantage of it, especially when the Leafs are winning games with ease and are scoring in bunches. With six straight wins a row and an average of 4.17 GF/GP, the Leafs are playing fantastic hockey. In your cash games tonight, you will want at least one piece of the team’s top line and at just $7,700, van Riemsdyk feels like the must play. Sure, Phil Kessel is the superstar that you ideally like to slot in your lineup tonight, but when you are paying up for your goaltender, with a $500 discount to his first line and first power play unit linemate, you need to find a way to save money wherever you are able. With at least one point in five straight games, and a total of three goals and four assists over that time span, lock JVR in your cash game lineups.
Alex Galchenyuk – Montreal Canadiens – In order to pay up for Evgeni Malkin or Claude Giroux tonight, you will need to find value at your other forward spots. At 8.3% of your cap, the first line centerman, who skates with Max Pacioretty and Brendan Gallagher as well as with the same duo on the Canadiens’ first power play unit, registered his first career hat trick in the team’s last game out in a 4-1 thrashing of the Carolina Hurricanes in Montreal. With Galchenyuk’s price not moving following his 13.2 FDP performance on Tuesday, take advantage of the home ice advantage tonight against an Anaheim Ducks team that was throttled at the hands of the Canadiens’ rival their last game out and still have one more game in Ottawa before they can get home to Southern California. The key here is that head coach, Michel Therrien, should attempt to get his first line matched up against the slower and less physical Ducks’ lines, which will allow Galchenyuk and Pacioretty to move the puck easier to create more open shots.
Other Forwards To Target (Cash Games) –Tyler Bozak, Brendan Gallagher, Max Pacioretty, Jakub Voracek, Joe Thornton
Other Forwards To Target (Tournaments) – Vladimir Tarasenko, Nick Foligno, Nazem Kadri, Paul Stastny, Nicklas Backstrom
Defensemen
Disclaimer: Kris Letang, Brent Burns, Kevin Shattenkirk are elite fantasy defensemen and can be used with confidence.
Christian Ehrhoff – Pittsburgh Penguins – The suggested play has more to do with Ehrhoff’s current price point and the thin position tonight than it does about his recent performance. Kris Letang is the quarterback on the Penguins’ deadly power play, but Ehrhoff is paired with Letang on that unit that faces an Avalanche team that has given up three short-handed goals over the past two games against one great PP unit (the Blues) and one below average PP unit (the Jets). With an average of 3.2 FDP per game over his last five games, at just $4,200, Ehrhoff is a sound investment if you need to save money at one of your defense slots. Moreover, he does provide cheap exposure to the Penguins’ 2nd best PP unit and Ehrhoff should be in line for at least one helper and a +1.
Mark Streit – Philadelphia Flyers – In what should be a bounceback game for the high-powered Philadelphia Flyers’ offense, the team will need a solid performance by its top defenseman, who will be asked to rush the puck through the defensive style of hockey that the Florida Panthers often play. What teams have been using against the Panthers is the strategy of gaining the redline and then using a strong forecheck to beat their defensive system. With an average of 3.25 FDP per game over his last six games and at least one point per game in five of those games, Streit is one of the most safe plays at one of your D slots as he should connect with at least one point as a top five PP unit against a below average PK unit.
Other Defensemen To Target (Cash Games) – P.K. Subban, Cody Franson, Alex Pietrangelo
Other Defensemen To Target (Tournaments) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Jack Johnson, Andrei Markov