NHL Daily Plays: Thursday, February 5th
Happy Thursday, fellow NHL DFSers! Following Wednesday’s small three-game slate, the NHL gives us a typically busy slate on Thursday with nine games from which we may select players for our lineups. A quick glance at the games hints that we have some fairly close matchups with no true huge Vegas favorite aside from St. Louis, so tonight will depend on how accurately you can select your goal scorers from a large slate of tight games.
As a public service announcement, in doing a survey of the pricing for these “Daily Plays,” as I am sure you all know, each daily site has the players priced rather differently. As such, some of the recommended bargain plays may not be bargain plays on, for example, Victiv or DraftDay.
Before we dig into today’s daily plays, let’s examine what the current Vegas lines are telling us. Any astute daily fantasy player must be in tune with Vegas lines and over/unders as “they” always know more than we do. Our job is to interpret what these numbers mean so that we can use them in populating a DFS lineup on your favorite site. In looking at the Vegas lines, the heavy favorites are the Blues (-285 over the Sabres), the Canucks (-147 over the Sharks), the Coyotes (-131 over the Hurricanes), and the Capitals (-120 over the Senators). Of the eighteen teams in action, only the Sharks are playing on back-to-back nights. This is good news as most top goaltenders should be in net today. That said, similar to NBA DFS, there will be times when we will make lineup decisions based off of which teams are the most rested.
Good luck! I will online for most of the day to answer questions in the comments section below or on Twitter at TheTonyM.
Goalies
Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalies listed below are starting prior to puck-drop
Brian Elliott – St. Louis Blues – As of the writing of this piece, the Vegas moneyline for the Blues and Sabres game in Buffalo is sitting at -285, which makes the Blues the heaviest favorite on the evening by a wide margin. It would be shocking to see Elliott at anything less than 70% owned in cash games this evening, as the next largest favorite other than the Blues is the Canucks at home hosting the Sharks, who struggle on the road compared to their play in the Shark Tank. At $9.3K on FD (and $9.4K on DK), Elliott is the seventh-most expensive netminder (but the most expensive on DK) despite having the best matchup on the night. The play here has to do with the simple fact that the Blues have the best chances of winning on a large slate of tight matchups and, in using up 16.9% of your cap on one player, you need a sense of confidence that your goalie will not only earn the win, but also has a shot at earning the shutout. The Blues have ripped off six wins in a row while scoring 3.33 goals per game during that streak. Contrast that to the Sabres, who somehow managed to beat the Habs two nights ago, but prior to that, the team lost fourteen games in a row dating back to late December. The one risk in paying up for Elliott, especially on DK where he is priced at 18.8% of the cap, is that the Sabres do not shoot the puck enough (22.8 SF/GP, 30th in NHL) to allow Elliott to return value unless he earns the SO. If you are unwilling to risk this much cap space for your goalie, select one of the cash game targets below, which are listed in the order of my preference.
Writer’s Note: If Elliott does not get the start tonight, pivot down to Jake Allen (STL – G), who is less expensive than Elliott, or roll with one of the selections below.
Other Goalies To Target (Cash Games) – Braden Holtby, Steve Mason, Semyon Varlamov, Ben Bishop
Other Goalies To Target (Tournaments) – Mike Smith, Petr Mrazek, Roberto Luongo
Forwards
Disclaimer – Alexander Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, John Tavares, Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek and Alexander Steen carry a high price tag and may also be used as you see fit.
Vladimir Tarasenko – St. Louis Blues – In your cash games tonight, make sure you load up on your Blues skaters. If you are playing on FD and you are limited to the number of skaters that you may roster per team, I see the argument for fading Elliott in order to stack Blues forwards and a defenseman. Of the team’s top six skaters tonight, I am most inclined to roster Tarasenko. The primary reason is that he gets you exposure to Jaden Schwartz and Paul Stastny on the team’s second even-strength line as well as to Schwartz and David Backes on the team’s top power-play unit. At $7.4K on FD and $6.8K on DK, you are paying for a goal scorer who will be skating on the NHL’s second-best power-play unit (per Neil Parker’s ranking system over at TheFakeHockey.com) that will attack the NHL’s worst penalty kill unit in the Sabres (according to Mr. Parker’s rankings). With at least one point in two straight games and in seven of his last ten, Tarasenko should have at least three shots on goal tonight (his average is 3.5 S/GP) and he is the best bet to put the puck in the back of the net tonight against the inept hockey team from Buffalo.
Nicklas Backstrom – Washington Capitals – As a top-five forward today, Backstrom skates into tonight’s game in Ottawa against a Senators team that is playing Jekyll & Hyde type of hockey now as indicated by their “sometimes there, sometimes not” offense that alternates each good offensive game. On the other hand, aside from a 1-0 OT loss, the Capitals have scored at least three goals per game in the last eight games. During that span, Backstrom has figured in twelve of those goals at a clip of three goals and 9 assists. With the top offensive target today being Backstrom’s linemate, Alex Ovechkin, grab exposure to Ovie with the centerman at a $2,400 discount. This game that should be one of the highest-paced matchups on the night, in which the Senators will go with backup goalie, Robin Lehner, while Craig Anderson in out with a hand injury.
Brayden Schenn – Philadelphia Flyers – The top value play of the night is the Flyers first line left wing, who skates with Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek, who also plays on the team’s first power-play unit alongside Giroux and Wayne Simmonds. At $4,800 on FD (and $4,800 on DK with C eligibility), Schenn should have no trouble returning value against the Islanders, who own the NHL’s worst penalty kill unit and have given up at least one goal to opposing PP units in seven (yes, seven) straight games. In fact, the Islanders have surrendered ten shorthanded goals during this time. Meanwhile, the Flyers have scored ten power play goals in their last ten games. In what should be a high-scoring game, paying below $5K for a piece of the Flyers is the right price as Schenn gets you exposure to the Flyers’ other top three forwards and the team’s top PP unit that should score a minimum of one goal tonight. In order to fit in your high-priced goaltender and a few superstar skaters, lock in Schenn, the top value play of the night.
Other Forwards To Target (Cash Games) – Jaden Schwartz, Paul Stastny, Nikita Kucherov, Nicklas Backstrom, Tyler Seguin (too cheap on FD), Tyler Johnson
Other Forwards To Target (Tournaments) – Evgeny Kuznetsov, Sean Bergenheim, Colin Wilson, Marcus Johansson
Defensemen
Disclaimer: Erik Karlsson and Shea Weber are elite fantasy defensemen and can be used with confidence.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Arizona Coyotes – It has been many months since I have had the chance to recommend “the hyphen”, but tonight, OEL and the Coyotes welcome in a Carolina Hurricanes team that is just 6-17-2-2 on the road and they are in the midst of a three game losing streak. During this streak, the Canes have given up an average of 3.67 GA/GP while the Coyotes, who have managed to win two in a row and three of their last four games, have averaged 3.33 GF/GP during the wins. Leading the offensive charge from the blueline is OEL, who has scored a goal in two straight games and has recorded at least one point in five of his last six games (3Gs, 2As). With an over/under set at 5.0 goals, the under is expected to hit, but if the Coyotes’ 9th best power play (according to Mr. Parker) is able to penetrate the solid penalty kill unit of the Hurricanes, Ekman-Larsson, who skates with Zbynek Michalek (during even strength) and with Keith Yandle (on the PP) and his gaudy 24:47 ATOI will have plenty of opportunity to create scoring chances.
Roman Josi – Nashville Predators – As of the publication of this article, the Vegas line for the Anaheim Ducks and Nashville Predators game has not been posted, but with Pekka Rinne, who has not played since mid-January, already confirmed to get the start between the pipes, look for the Preds to be favored on home ice. With at least one point in two straight games (1G, 2As) and in four of his last five games (2Gs, 4As), Josi has been playing as well as any defenseman in the league. With two wins in a row against the Leafs and Pens, the Preds are 13-9-2-3 on home ice and have averaged 4.25 goals per game on home ice without Rinne, look for Nashville to put up a 4-spot tonight against a Ducks team that has struggled to play any defensive hockey at all in giving up 4.67 goals per game over their last three. Look for Josi and his fellow blueliner and teammate, Shea Weber, to continue to rake up points for their team.
Other Defensemen To Target (Cash Games) – Mike Green, Alex Pietrangelo, Alexander Edler
Other Defensemen To Target (Tournaments) – Johnny Boychuk, Justin Faulk, Keith Yandle, Adam Clendening