NHL Daily Plays: Thursday, January 15th
Happy Thursday, fellow NHL Grinders! Following Wednesday’s small four-game slate, the NHL gives us a typically busy slate on Thursday with ten games from which we may select players for our lineups. A quick glance at the games hints that we have some fairly lopsided matchups, so tonight will depend on how accurately you can select your goal scorers from a large slate of games.
As a public service announcement, in doing a survey of the pricing for these “Daily Plays,” as I am sure you all know, each daily site has the players priced rather differently. As such, some of the recommended bargain plays may not be bargain plays on, for example, Victiv or DraftDay.
Before we dig into today’s daily plays, let’s examine what the current Vegas lines are telling us. Any astute daily fantasy player must be in tune with Vegas lines and over/unders as “they” always know more than we do. Our job is to interpret what these numbers mean so that we can use them in populating a DFS lineup on your favorite site. In looking at the Vegas lines, the heavy favorites are the Lightning (-279 over the Oilers), the Sharks (-185 over the Leafs), the Blues (-160 over the Wings), the Wild (-155 over the Sabres), and the Panthers (-135 over the Avalanche). Of the twenty teams in action, the Canadiens and Leafs are playing on back-to-back nights. This is good news as most top goaltenders should be in net today. That said, akin to NBA DFS, there will be times when we will make lineup decisions based off of which teams are the most rested.
Good luck! I will online for most of the day to answer questions in the comments section below or on Twitter @TheTonyM.
Goalies
Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalies listed below are starting prior to puck-drop
Ben Bishop – Tampa Bay Lightning – As of the writing of this piece, the Vegas moneyline for the Lightning and Oilers game in Tampa is sitting at -279, which makes the Lightning the heaviest favorite on the evening. Bishop is not typically a goalie that you want to pay up for in your cash games due to his shaky start to 2015 in which he has had two negative fantasy point games and has given up fifteen goals on 121 shots over six starts. However, Bishop and the Lightning are on home ice and are facing an Oilers team that is just 2-11-5 on the road and scored only four goals over the last their last two straight losses. The one concern over the last few weeks has been that the Oilers do not shoot the puck enough (27.5 S/GP, 5th worst) to justify rostering an opposing goalie against them unless we can be assured that he may be able to earn a SO, which is a strong possibility this evening. At $9,000, Bishop is just the eighth-most expensive netminder on the night and, assuming he earns a win, he just needs to stop about 24 shots in order to hit his value target. The play here has more to do with the Lightning’s overall chances of winning the game against a team that simply cannot score any goals, even with a low expected save total. It is a tough day to pick a goalie for your cash games, but at a similar price point as Brian Elliott, who has a tougher matchup against the Red Wings, the top goalie target on the day is Bishop.
Writer’s Note: If Bishop is not confirmed prior to the times games lock, pivot over to another cash game target mentioned immediately below.
Other Goalies To Target (Cash Games) – Brian Elliott, Roberto Luongo
Other Goalies To Target (Tournaments) – Joni Ortio, Craig Anderson, Antti Niemi, Jhonas Enroth
Forwards
Disclaimer – Steven Stamkos, Joe Pavelski, Claude Giroux, Logan Couture and Tyler Seguin carry a high price tag and may also be used as you see fit.
Ryan Callahan – Tampa Bay Lighting – As the heaviest favorite on the night, look for the Lightning skaters, especially the team’s first line consisting of Ondrej Palat, Steven Stamkos and Callahan, to be highly-owned in cash games. Roster construction may force you to come off the more expensive Stamkos to the under-priced Callahan, but it is critical that you have exposure to the team that is projected to score the most goals. The Bolts are going up against the Oilers, who are giving up the second most goals per game in the NHL at a clip of 3.32 GA/GP and have surrendered an average of four GA/GP over their last two losses. At $5,800, Callahan, who has at least one point in three straight games (2 Gs, 1 A), is $2,800 less expensive than Stamkos and $1,000 cheaper than Palat. With a target score of 3.41 tonight, Callahan should tally at least one helper and 3 shots on goal to go along with a +2, which is more than sufficient to pay off his modest price tag.
Writer’s Note: Tampa Bay Lightning beat writer (@erlendssonTBO) just tweeted out that Callahan will be skating on the team’s second line tonight with Cedric Paquette and Val Filppula with Callahan also shifting to the 2nd power play with Brett Connolly and Alex Killorn. This shift in lines boosts the value of Nikita Kucherov, who will be skating with Ondrej Palat and Steven Stamkos. At $600 cheaper than Callahan, insert Kucherov into your cash game lineups. Kucherov also should be seeing time on the first PP unit at the point. With this news, Callahan becomes a contrarian tournament play.
Aleksander Barkov – Florida Panthers – The top near-minimum priced play of the night is the Panthers’ first line and first power play unit center, who skates with Jonathan Huberdeau and Brad Boyes. At $3,300 on FD, Barkov needs just under 2.0 FDP to hit value, which he should do with ease against a Colorado Avalanche team that has dropped two straight games and then continue on a long road trip after facing the Panthers. The Avalanche are giving up the ninth-most goals per game (2.82 GA/GP) and the second-most shots against per game (34.5 SA/GP) while the Panthers have averaged 3.2 G/GP over their last ten games, which is almost a full goal per game over their season average. With points in two straight games and in four of his last five games, Barkov is averaging 2.42 FDP per game over that span, which .42 points over his target threshold. In what should be a high-event matchup, Barkov will earn his production from at least one assist, a few shots on goal and a +1. In order to fit in your high-priced goaltender and a few superstar skaters, lock in Barkov, the top value play of the night.
David Backes – St. Louis Blues – With at least two points in four straight games, the Blues’ first-line center and first power play unit left wing is underpriced at $7,200 on FD. In fact, during his last four games, Backes has scored six goals and helped on four goals for a total of ten points, which translates to an average of 9.68 FDP per game over that span. At his current price point, Backes needs just 4.24 FDP to reach value and with the team’s top line typically having more room to operate on home ice, grab exposure to at least one piece of the Blues’ top line. This Blues exposure, along with the Lightning, will be highly-owned, so this feels like a cash game play and a GPP fade for the big DK live event qualifier.
Other Forwards To Target (Cash Games) – Zach Parise, Jakub Voracek, Nikita Kucherov, Blake Wheeler, Max Pacioretty
Other Forwards To Target (Tournaments) – Johnny Gaudreau, Justin Fontaine, Sean Monahan, Nino Niederreiter, Brad Boyes
Defensemen
Disclaimer: Brent Burns, Dustin Byfuglien, Mark Giordano, Erik Karlsson and Kevin Shattenkirk are elite fantasy defensemen and can be used with confidence.
Torey Krug – Boston Bruins – As a -124 moneyline favorite over the New York Rangers this evening, the Bruins may have finally found their identity in 2015 having won four straight games with an average of 3.25 goals per game during that span. The Rangers are playing equally well, having also won four of five games this month, but the Bs are a different team at the TD Garden where they are 14-6-4. Moreover, the Rangers have historically struggled in Boston and are 0-4 in their last four meetings with the Bruins in Boston. The two teams also play tight defensive hockey, as indicated by the fact that the under is 9-2-3 in the teams’ last fourteen games. With an O/U set at 5.0 goals, look for a final score of 3-2 in favor of the home team with Krug (and a now healthy) Zdeno Chara quarterbacking the offense from the blue line. Even with Chara’s presence, Krug has taken over the offensive role that pushes the team up ice. With points in five of his last seven games, at $5.6K, Krug should be good for at least one helper, a few shots and a +1, which is more than enough to hit value.
Anton Stralman – Tampa Bay Lightning – With superstar defenseman, Victor Hedman once again on the shelf with an injury that is expected to keep him out until after the NHL All-Star break, Stralman, who filled in nicely for Hedman earlier this season, has been once again asked to lead the Lightning’s offensive push up ice. The first even strength and first power play unit D-man, who is paired with Matt Carle (during even strength time) as well as Nikita Kucherov on the power play, has recorded just six assists since December 31st. But with Hedman out, he is seeing upwards of 23:30 minutes of ice time per game. In a game on home ice against an awful Edmonton Oilers team in which the Lightning should put up at least four goals, grab Stralman and cheap exposure to the Lightning for just $3,600 on FD and $3,100 on DK.
Other Defensemen To Target (Cash Games) – Keith Yandle, Jason Garrison, Alex Pietrangelo
Other Defensemen To Target (Tournaments) – Alexander Edler, Cody Franson, Andrei Markov