NHL Daily Plays: Thursday, January 1st
Happy New Years! A day after the first qualifier to the first live finale for an NHL event in DFS history, we are treated with a special afternoon on hockey. Yes, New Year’s Day 2015 marks the 7th anniversary of the first Winter Classic game, which was played in 2008 in Orchard Park, New York and featured the Buffalo Sabres hosting the visiting Pittsburgh Penguins. As you just read that sentence, you may have done some mental math in your head, but yes, the 2013 Winter Classic was not played due to the NHL lockout. Today’s contest is at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. and the Washington Capitals are hosting the Chicago Blackhawks.
Today’s piece will be abbreviated as there are just two games and the start of the second game is a full nine hours after the start of the first game. As of the publication of this article, only Corey Crawford has been confirmed in net for the Blackhawks. Braden Holtby should get the start in net for the Capitals. With both the Los Angeles Kings and the Vancouver Canucks having the day off last night, both of their top netminders (Jonathan Quick and Ryan Miller) should be in goal for their respective team.
The early Vegas lines have the Blackhawks as -122 moneyline favorites and the Canucks as -125 moneyline favorites on home ice against the visiting Kings and both games have an over/under currently set at 5 goals. The danger in playing today, especially on FanDuel, is that you are almost forced to choose one of the goalies in the 1 p.m. Eastern lock game unless you want to take a risk and start Miller in the 10 p.m. Eastern start game. On sites with late swap (e.g., DK), grab Miller and if he sits, pivot to Eddie Lack and upgrade a skater in this game. For those of you playing cash games, stick with one of the two goalies playing in the Winter Classic.
The later strategy may be the way to go as the Winter Classic games have historically been low-scoring affairs as the ice conditions in the outdoor rink have been suboptimal from a professional hockey aspect. Yes, the games are fantastic to watch for those of us who grew up playing pond hockey, but the ice outside will never been perfect. There are bumps on the hard ice (if it is cold) or the ice may be too soft and wet (if it is too warm) and this causes the puck to be unpredictable. In fact, aside from the 2009 Winter Classic held at Wrigley Field, which had a score of 6-4, the other five games had an average of 3.6 goals per game scored with the contests in 2008 and 2014 finishing in a shootout. Early money looks as if the Winter Classic will once again hit the under or push. So, you may be better off opting for Crawford or Holtby on FD.
Goalies
Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalies listed below are starting prior to puck-drop
For those of you playing it safe, roll out Corey Crawford in your cash games. He will be vying for his third win in a row and at $8,600 on FD, he is just $400 more than his counterpart, $1,200 less than Quick, and $300 more than Miller. Both the Capitals and the Blackhawks play league average paced hockey, but the difference is that the Blackhawks are averaging the most shots per game in the league and are giving up the fewest goals per game in the league while scoring the third most goals per game. Contrast this to the Capitals who are giving up the 10th fewest shots per game, but are averaging the 14th most shots per game. What this indicates is that Crawford is in a good spot to earn the all-important win and should see enough shots, even on choppy ice, from an excited home team that will justify paying his price tag.
Other Goalies To Target (Cash Games) – Ryan Miller
Other Goalies To Target (Tournaments) –Braden Holtby, Jonathan Quick
Forwards
The way to attack the Winter Classic game is to grab a piece of each of the top two lines for the Blackhawks (Brandon Saad-Jonathan Toews-Marian Hossa, Kris Versteeg-Brad Richards-Patrick Kane). If you are playing the role of a contrarian, grab a piece of the Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and Jay Beagle line. With the last line change as the home team, Ovie could be a dangerous GPP play. In the late game, Radim Vrbata is the top skater play given his price tag. In looking at each team’s power play, you want to attack the Capitals’ PK unit ( 7th worst) with the Blackhawks’ top PP unit of Andrew Shaw, Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. Meanwhile, the Canucks’ are the least vulnerable team on the PK (4th best), which leaves your Kings’ skaters as GPP plays.
My list of top forwards to target today, with (FD) price taken into consideration:
Patrick Kane
Jonathan Toews
Radim Vrbata
Patrick Sharp
Marian Hossa
Daniel Sedin
Marian Gaborik
Tyler Toffoli
Jeff Carter
Nicklas Backstrom
Kris Versteeg
Henrik Sedin
Defensemen
Filling your defensemen slots today will be interesting. Here, you can grab your usual Blackhawks (Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook) and know that they may register one point each but should get most of their fantasy production from shots, PIMs or +/-. Alternatively, you can grab Alexander Edler or Drew Doughty in a game that is likely to have at least one more goal than the Winter Classic matchup. In setting early lineups, roster construction seems to be forcing me to grab two “value” defensemen (Edler, $3,900, or Yannick Weber, $3,300) so that I can get more exposure to the top forwards on the slate.
My list of top defensemen to target today, with (FD) price taken into consideration:
Duncan Keith
Drew Doughty
Brent Seabrook
Alexander Edler
Alec Martinez
John Carlson
Yannick Weber
Tim Erixon
Good luck today and play carefully!