NHL Daily Plays: Thursday, January 29th
Happy Thursday, fellow NHL DFSers! Following Wednesday’s small three-game slate, the NHL gives us a typically busy slate on Thursday with eleven games from which we may select players for our lineups. A quick glance at the games hints that we have some fairly close matchups with no true huge Vegas favorite, so tonight will depend on how accurately you can select your goal scorers from a large slate of tight games.
As a public service announcement, in doing a survey of the pricing for these “Daily Plays,” as I am sure you all know, each daily site has the players priced rather differently. As such, some of the recommended bargain plays may not be bargain plays on, for example, Victiv or DraftDay.
Before we dig into today’s daily plays, let’s examine what the current Vegas lines are telling us. Any astute daily fantasy player must be in tune with Vegas lines and over/unders as “they” always know more than we do. Our job is to interpret what these numbers mean so that we can use them in populating a DFS lineup on your favorite site. In looking at the Vegas lines, the heavy favorites are the Oilers (-174 over the Sabres), the Leafs (-169 over the Coyotes), the Blues (-149 over the Predators), and the Lightning (-147 over the Wings). Of the twenty-two teams in action, only the Leafs are playing on back-to-back nights. This is good news as most top goaltenders should be in net today. That said, akin to NBA DFS, there will be times when we will make lineup decisions based off of which teams are the most rested.
Good luck! I will online for most of the day to answer questions in the comments section below or on Twitter @TheTonyM.
Goalies
Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalies listed below are starting prior to puck-drop.
Brian Elliott – St. Louis Blues – As of the writing of this piece, the Vegas moneyline for the Blues and Predators game in St. Louis is sitting at -149, which makes the Blues the third heaviest favorite on the evening. Despite an awful showing in the All-Star game this past weekend in which Elliott gave up six goals (yes, I am being facetious here) and one outing in which he was yanked after giving up three goals on ten shots to the Carolina Hurricanes on January 10, the Blues netminder has not lost a game in regulation in 2015 and has averaged 6.17 FDP per game since the new year. The Blues are playing in their first post-ASG game tonight and will be playing three games in four days, but the future does not matter this evening. We just know that Elliott is well-rested and should improve on his 1.86 GAA (fifth best in the NHL) and .930 SV% (tenth best) again a Predators team that is playing its second game in three nights and the first in a back-to-back and have historically struggled in St. Louis (4-11 in last 15 games and 2-5 in their last seven games in St. Louis). At $9.2K on FD, assuming the Blues get the “W”, Elliott is priced fairly assuming he is able to turn away 32 of the 34.4 shots that the Predators have averaged over their past six games in what should be an above average-paced game.
Other Goalies To Target (Cash Games) – Roberto Luongo, Frederick Andersen, Jonas Hiller
Other Goalies To Target (Tournaments) – Jhonas Enroth, Steve Mason, Ben Scrivens
Forwards
Disclaimer – Tyler Seguin, Phil Kessel, Max Pacioretty, Alexander Steen, Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry carry a high price tag and may also be used as you see fit.
Vladimir Tarasenko – St. Louis Blues – One of my new favorite past times has become trying to determine which St. Louis Blues line will blow up in any given night. With Coach Ken Hitchcock’s line shakeups a few weeks ago, Tarasenko is now skating on the right wing along with Patrik Berglund and Jori Lehtera on the “second line” as well as on the team’s second power play unit with old linemates Jaden Schwartz and Lehtera. The Blues went into the All-Star break having won two in a row and seven of their last eight games and during those wins, the team averaged a gaudy 4.25 goals per game. The play here has to do with attacking the NHL’s seventh-worst PK unit with the NHL’s top power play unit. With the under of 5.5 expected to hit, in what should be a 4-1 game, the Lehtera line with its combination of extreme power and speed matches up best with each of the Predators’ lines. You will want exposure to the Blues tonight and Tarasenko presents the best value as he is $1,100 less expensive than Steen, who is a solid play, but the extra cap space will be needed to spend at your other wing slots this evening.
Nazem Kadri – Toronto Maple Leafs – Following a lackluster performance last night in what was expected to be a high-scoring affair in New Jersey, the Leafs travel north and host the Arizona Coyotes, who dropped seven straight games (and eight of their last nine) heading into the All-Star break. Only the Buffalo Sabres have surrendered more goals per game (3.54 GA/GP) than the Coyotes (3.32 GA/GP). During their current losing streak, the ‘Yotes are giving up four goals per game and the Leafs first line should be the source of production. Kadri now centers the Leafs’ top line and skates with Leo Komarov and Phil Kessel and also plays at one point on the team’s first power play unit next to Cody Franson. Prior to being shut out last night, Kadri had recorded at least one point in two straight games, and at $5.2K on FD, he gives you a source of cheap exposure to Kessel, James van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak on the PP that will attack a bottom five penalty kill unit.
Benoit Pouliot – Edmonton Oilers – The top value play of the night is the Oilers’ first line left wing, who skates with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle, who also plays on the team’s first power play unit alongside Nugent-Hopkins and Anton Lander. At $4,800 on FD (and $4,700 on DK), Pouliot should have no trouble returning value against the worst team in the league. As the heaviest favorite on the night, the Oilers take on a Sabres team that has dropped twelve games in a row and scored just seventeen goals (1.42 per game) during the current losing streak. While the Oilers certainly do not present a high-powered offense, tonight they get to tee off against a team that is giving up the most goals per game (3.54 GA/GP), the most shots against per game (35.0 SA/GP) and have the worst penalty kill unit in the league. Prior to getting shut out two nights ago against the Wild, Pouliot had recorded at least one point in five of his prior six games for a total of seven points (6 Gs, 1 A) during that span. The left winger’s linemates are slightly more expensive than he is and this game is one that you should have exposure to given the expected high total. In order to fit in your high-priced goaltender and a few superstar skaters, lock in Pouliot, the top value play of the night.
Other Forwards To Target (Cash Games) – Jaden Schwartz, Bobby Ryan, Tyler Johnson, James van Riemsdyk, Johnny Gaudreau
Other Forwards To Target (Tournaments) – Matt Moulson, Tyler Bozak, Tyler Ennis, Jakob Silfverberg
Defensemen
Disclaimer: Erik Karlsson, Kevin Shattenkirk, Mark Giordano and Dustin Byfuglien are elite fantasy defensemen and can be used with confidence.
Torey Krug – Boston Bruins – The Bruins are +115 underdogs on the road on Long Island, but the early money appears headed towards the road team with the over of 5.5 goals expected to hit. The Isles are coming off a 4-1 win over their in-state rivals two nights ago and the Bruins are well-rested and were playing great hockey going into the break having won six of their last eight games. At $6,000 on FD, Krug is the seventh-most expensive defenseman, but he comes at a meaningful discount to my top-rated D-men tonight (Karlsson and Shattenkirk) and will be quarterbacking the Bruins’ second power play unit (that actually sees more ice time than its first PP unit) that gets to take a crack at the NHL’s second-worst penalty kill unit. In fact, the Islanders have given up a least one goal to opposing team’s power plays in four straight games for a total of six goals during those games. The Bruins should have no trouble recording at least one PP goal and Krug will be involved in the action.
Cody Franson – Toronto Maple Leafs – You will want at least some exposure to the Leafs tonight as they take on a team that has given up the second-most goals per game this season. The top D-man play on the night is Franson, who is just $3,300 on FD (but more expensive at $4.4K on DK). If you opt to stack other teams besides the Leafs at your forward slots, the cheapest exposure to the team’s first power play unit is Franson, who is paired with Nazem Kadri at the point (and with Korbinian Holzer on the first even strength unit). Prior to being shut out last night in a strange game against the Devils that the Leafs lost in a shootout, Franson had recorded one assist and two SOG in two straight games. The one concern when rostering Leafs on FD is that they are susceptible to earning minuses due to their poor goaltender, but against a team that is averaging just 2.23 G/GP (fifth-worst in the NHL), the risk is much lower, which immediately boosts Franson’s value.
Other Defensemen To Target (Cash Games) – Sami Vatanen, Victor Hedman, Aaron Ekblad, Dougie Hamilton
Other Defensemen To Target (Tournaments) – Keith Yandle, Ryan Suter, Justin Schultz, Johnny Boychuk