NHL Daily Plays: Thursday, January 8th
Happy Thursday, fellow NHL DFSers! Following Wednesday’s small 4-game slate, the NHL gives us a typically busy slate on Thursday with ten games from which we may select players for our lineups. A quick glance at the games hints that we have some fairly lopsided matchups, so tonight will depend on how accurately you can select your goal scorers from a large slate of games.
As a public service announcement, in doing a survey of the pricing for these “Daily Plays,” as I am sure you all know, each daily site has the players priced rather differently. As such, some of the recommended bargain plays may not be bargain plays on, for example, Victiv or DraftDay.
Before we dig into today’s daily plays, let’s examine what the current Vegas lines are telling us. Any astute daily fantasy player must be in tune to Vegas lines and over/unders as “they” always know more than we do. Our job is to interpret what these numbers mean so that we can use them in populating a DFS lineup on your favorite site. In looking at the Vegas lines, the heavy favorites are the Hurricanes (-195 over the Sabres), the Bruins (-185 over the Devils), the Predators (-160 over the Stars), the Canucks (-163 over the Panthers), and the Blues (-155 over the Sharks). Of the twenty teams in action, the Capitals, Bruins and Rangers are playing on back-to-back nights. This is good news as most top goaltenders should be in net today. That said, akin to NBA DFS, there will be times when we will make lineup decisions based off of which teams are the most rested.
Good luck! I will online for most of the day to answer questions in the comments section below or on Twitter @TheTonyM.
Goalies
Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalies listed below are starting prior to puck-drop
Cam Ward – Carolina Hurricanes – As of the writing of this piece, the Vegas moneyline for the Hurricanes and Sabres game in Charlotte, NC is sitting at -195, which makes the Hurricanes the heaviest favorite on the evening. After a strong showing from mid-November until early December, the Sabres have been in a free fall having lost nine of their last ten games. During that span, the team scored just thirteen goals in those losses for an average of 1.44 goals per game. On the other hand, the Hurricanes are finally starting to look healthy, and while they do not score many goals themselves (1.92 G/GP), they are skating on home ice against a team that gives up the most goals per game (3.39 GA/GP) as well as the most shots against per game (35.3 SA/GP). The one concern over the last few weeks has been that the Sabres do not shoot the puck to justify rostering an opposing goalie against them unless we can be assured that he may be able to earn a SO. At $7,500, Ward is just the 24th most expensive netminder on the night and, assuming he earns a win, he just needs to stop about 24 shots in order to hit his value target. The play here has more to do with the ‘Canes overall chances of winning the game against a depleted team that looks as if has simply given up on its head coach.
Writer’s Note: If Ward is not confirmed prior to the times games lock, pivot over to another cash game target mentioned immediately below.
Other Goalies To Target (Cash Games) – Brian Elliott, Pekka Rinne, Corey Crawford
Other Goalies To Target (Tournaments) – Michael Hutchinson, Jonathan Quick, Craig Anderson
Forwards
Disclaimer – Tyler Seguin, Patrick Kane, Alexander Ovechkin, Rick Nash, Patrick Sharp and Claude Giroux carry a high price tag and may also be used as you see fit.
Bryan Little – Winnipeg Jets – With at least one point in seven straight games, the first line and first power play unit center, is underpriced at $5,200 on FD. In fact, during his last seven games, Little has scored three goals and helped on seven goals for a total of ten points, which translates to an average of 4.91 FDP per game over that span. At his current price point, Little needs just 3.08 FDP to reach value and with early sharp money riding the Jets at -118 on the road and the Coyotes having surrendered a total of 12 goals against over the past three games, grab exposure to at least one piece of the Jets’ top line.
Filip Forsberg – Nashville Predators – As the fourth heaviest favorite on the night, the Preds are on home ice against a Dallas Stars team that gave up a total of nine goals over the last two games. Moreover, the Stars are giving up the fourth most goals per game in the league (3.26 GA/GP) and the seventh most shots against per game (30.9 SA/GP). Contrast this to the Predators who are averaging the third most shots per game (32.3 S/GP) and the ninth most goals per game (2.95 G/GP). Rostering the Predators’ first line and first power play unit left wing gets you exposure to a high-paced offense against a struggling defensive team. With at least one point in three straight games and at least one point in five of his last six games, Forsberg should hit value in what the Nils model projects to be a 4-2 goal game in favor of the Predators. Lastly, consider that Forsberg and the four other skaters he sees ice time with (Mike Ribeiro, Craig Smith, Mike Fisher and Olli Jokinen) have accounted for 13 points over their last three games.
T.J. Oshie – St. Louis Blues – In order to squeeze in your superstar skaters tonight, you will need to find value plays. You also want exposure to the Blues/Sharks game. With points in six straight games (5 Gs, 6 As), Oshie, who skates with David Backes and Alexander Steen on the Blues’ first line and with Backes and Stastny on the team’s first power play unit get you exposure to a three other skaters who, between the four, accounted for four goals and six assists in a 7-2 romp of the Sharks in San Jose five nights ago. With the Blues having the last line switch at home, coach Ken Hitchcock should try to get his hottest line out on the ice while avoiding the Sharks’ top line. This should leave the Steen/Backes/Oshie line open to produce the most shots tonight against a team that has a middle of the pack penalty kill while the Blues have scored six power play goals in their last three games.
Other Forwards To Target (Cash Games) – Jakub Voracek, Vladimir Tarasenko, Colin Wilson, Blake Wheeler
Other Forwards To Target (Tournaments) – Evgeny Kuznetsov, Daniel Sedin, Kyle Turris
Defensemen
Disclaimer: Erik Karlsson, Shea Weber, Dustin Byfuglien and Kevin Shattenkirk are elite fantasy defensemen and can be used with confidence.
Roman Josi – Nashville Predators – As mentioned above, you want exposure to at least one Predators’ skater in what should be a high-event hockey game. If you want exposure to the team, but want to spend on other teams in your forward slots, your next best option is Josi, who is paired with superstar D-man, Shea Weber, on the team’s first even strength unit and first power play unit. At $5,200, Josi is an $800 discount to Weber, which is a meaningful amount on a busy slate. With at least one point in seven of his last nine games (4 Gs, 6 As), Josi has been out-producing his defensive pairmate on a per game basis over the Predators’ last ten games and is the better value at his current price tag.
Torey Krug – Boston Bruins – As the second heaviest favorite on the night, the Bruins are at home hosting the New Jersey Devils, who are coming off an easy 4-1 win over the hapless Buffalo Sabres two nights ago and will be playing a far superior defensive team tonight. The Bruins have yet to find their identity this season and have dropped three straight games, but they should right the ship against the Devils who have historically struggled in the TD Garden (1-7 in their last eight games in Boston and 3-13 in the teams’ last 16 games). The one constant for the Bs this season has been Krug, who has averaged 3.66 FDP over his last five games, which included one -1 FDP game. With points in five of his last seven games, at $5.3K, Krug should be good for at least one helper, a few shots and a +1, which is more than enough to hit value.
Other Defensemen To Target (Cash Games) – Brent Burns, Duncan Keith, Drew Doughty
Other Defensemen To Target (Tournaments) – John Carlson, Keith Yandle, Justin Faulk