NHL Daily Plays: Thursday, March 12th
Happy Thursday, fellow NHL DFSers! Following Wednesday’s typically small 3-game slate, the NHL gives us a typically busy slate on Thursday with eleven games from which we may select players for our lineups. A quick glance at the games hints that we have some large favorites (and a few games with no Vegas lines posted yet), so tonight will depend on how accurately you can select your goal scorers from a large slate of expected blowouts and a few high-tempo matchups.
As a public service announcement, in doing a survey of the pricing for these “Daily Plays,” as I am sure you all know, each daily site has the players priced rather differently. As such, some of the recommended bargain plays may not be bargain plays on, for example, Victiv or DraftDay.
Before we dig into today’s daily plays, let’s examine what the current Vegas lines are telling us. Any astute daily fantasy player must be in tune to Vegas lines and over/unders as “they” always know more than we do. Our job is to interpret what these numbers mean so that we can use them in populating a DFS lineup on your favorite site. In looking at the Vegas lines, the heavy favorites are the Penguins (-346 home against the Oilers), the Blackhawks (-226 at the Coyotes), the Red Wings (-209 home against the Blue Jackets), and the Blues (-197 home against the Flyers). Of the twenty-two teams in action, no team is playing on back-to-back nights. This is good news as most top goaltenders should be in net today. That said, similar to NBA DFS, there will be times when we will make lineup decisions based off of which teams are the most rested.
Good luck! I will online for most of the day to answer questions in the comments section below or on Twitter @TheTonyM.
Goalies
Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalies listed below are starting prior to puck-drop
Marc-Andre Fleury – Pittsburgh Penguins; Jimmy Howard – Detroit Red Wings – The top play for goalie is a close call tonight as you have three, possibly four, net minders who deserve this spot. Typically, you should start your roster building process by slotting in your goalie and then working on your forwards and defensemen. Today, depending on how much cap space you have left, you can go with either Fleury or Howard. Fleury has the best matchup of the two as his Penguins are the biggest Vegas favorite on the board, but his price tag is higher than Howard’s. While the Penguins should get the win and the all-important points for Fleury, he comes with a risk of not hitting value against the Oilers, who are averaging the fourth fewest shots per game (27.8), have dropped five straight games and have scored just an average of 2.00 goals per game during the losing streak. Comparably, the Red Wings are the third largest Vegas favorites on the night and face the Blue Jackets, who have lost eight of their last ten games and are averaging just 28.6 shots per game (7th fewest in the NHL). With a depressed price compared to Fleury, this below average shot total from Columbus is less worrisome from an expected point per dollar perspective. Ultimately, depending on your cap space left over, roll out either Fleury or Howard with confidence. With the amount of value skaters in play tonight, the recommended play, if using just one goalie and not splitting your cash game lineups, is Fleury.
Other Goalies To Target (Cash Games) – Carey Price, Brian Elliott, Corey Crawford
Other Goalies To Target (Tournaments) – Cory Schneider, Tuukka Rask, Cam Ward, Dan Ellis
Forwards
Disclaimer – Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Max Pacioretty, Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin carry a high price tag and may also be used as you see fit.
Jaden Schwartz – St. Louis Blues – With at least one point in four straight games, at $7.4K on FD, Schwartz is a must play in cash games as his Blues play host to the Philadelphia Flyers as the third heaviest Vegas favorite on the night. Sitting just behind Jamie Benn in my LW ranks, Schwartz has the better chance to put a puck in the net against a Flyers team that has dropped three straight and gave up an average of 3.33 goals per game during the losing streak and have given up the 7th most goals per game over the course of the season (2.79 GA/GP). Moreover, with just five total goals during that same span, the potential negative effects of the dreadful minuses on FD is limited given the Flyers’ recent offensive struggle. St. Louis should have no trouble putting a minimum of four pucks in the net tonight against the Flyers and whichever netminder they start and the Blues should have their way on the power play against the third worst PK unit (76.5% kill rate). With the offensive clinic that the Blues should put on tonight, you will want a piece of their top power play unit and “second” line.
Justin Abdelkader – Detroit Red Wings – As the second heaviest favorite on the night, the Wings host the Blue Jackets in what should be a high-event hockey game that should have both lines of the home team scoring goals. If you want exposure to the NHL’s seventh highest goal-scoring team (2.91 G/GP) and cannot afford their skaters who are priced in the $7K range, look to the team’s second line left wing in Abdelkader, who skates with Henrik Zetterberg and Erik Cole, and has recorded at least one point in four of his last five games for a total of four goals and one assist. Abdelkader and his second power play unit linemates (Zetterberg and Cole) will also get crucial PP time against the sixth worst penalty kill team (79.3%) that has given up shorthanded goals in five straight games for a total of nine shorthanded goals during that span. The Wings’ first line will score at least one goal, but the team’s second line will score the most and record the most points with its LW leading the way.
Patric Hornqvist – Pittsburgh Penguins – If you are playing in cash games, there are three primary teams that you want exposure too tonight – Blues, Wings and Penguins. Sitting at $7.5K on FD (and $8.3K on DK), the Penguins first line and first power play unit right wing will provide you with relatively cheap exposure to a high-powered offense that should put up a minimum of four goals tonight against the Oilers, who have given up the second most goals per game in the NHL (3.31 GA/GP) and own the league’s fourth worst power play unit (77.6%). Of course, Hornqvist’s price on DK is more prohibitive than it is on FD, but keep in mind that he comes at a $2K discount to his linemate (Sidney Crosby) and a $1.2K discount to the team’s second line center (Malkin). After a slow early to mid-February, Hornqvist has come alive with nine points in his last eight games and he will have a chance (with Crosby and Chris Kunitz) against the Oilers and their recent pitiful PK unit that has surrendered four shorthanded goals in their last two games. In a game that the Pens should thoroughly dominate, you must have exposure here.
Other Forwards To Target (Cash Games) – Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Vladimir Tarasenko, Henrik Zetterberg, David Perron, Brendan Gallagher
Other Forwards To Target (Tournaments) – Kris Versteeg, Jori Lehtera, Tomas Tatar, Filip Forsberg, Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, Tyler Johnson
Defensemen
Disclaimer: Kris Letang, Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns and P.K. Subban are elite fantasy defensemen and can be used with confidence.
Alex Pietrangelo – St. Louis Blues – It has been a while since I have had a chance to write up a defenseman on the Blues as much of their offense runs through their forwards and most of their goals usually have two forwards on the assists. However, over the past week and a half, Pietrangelo has been pushing the puck up ice and has been involved in the Blues’ recent offense resurgence. While Kevin Shattenkirk has been skating with the team, he still needs time to get his leg strength back, and Pietrangelo has been the team’s top D-man as he anchors the team’s first power play (NHL’s 3rd best PP%) with Alexander Steen and will host a Flyers’ PK unit that has given up three short-handed goals over its past three games. Pietrangelo is poised to continue his two game point streak against a Flyers team that has dropped three straight and has given up an average of 3.33 goals per game during that span.
Dougie Hamilton – Boston Bruins – Priced at $400 less than teammate, Torey Krug, on FD (but $400 more on DK), Hamilton has a total of five assists over his last four games and will face a Lightning team that, despite its recent success, has shown vulnerability to opposing defensemen with the ability to run an offense. In what should be an up-tempo game between two teams in that are each averaging thirty shots per game, Hamilton should record at least one assist (and possibly a power play assist) as the Bruins have been white hot on the PP having scored five PPGs over their past three matchups. While the Lightning have a top ten penalty kill unit on the season and have been skating well over the last week, they have given up two power play goals over their last two games. In what may be a tight scoring game, the Bruins should win 3-2 (or 4-2 on an ENG) and Hamilton and the team’s first line should lead the scoring.
Other Defensemen To Target (Cash Games) – Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Justin Faulk, Niklas Kronwall
Other Defensemen To Target (Tournaments) – Marek Zidlicky, Anton Stralman, Roman Josi, Torey Krug, Ryan Murphy