NHL Daily Plays: Thursday, November 20th
Happy Thursday, fellow NHL DFSers! I hope you were all able to profitably enjoy the two big tournaments two days ago. Keep up the great work getting money in the NHL DFS ecosystem.
Following Wednesday’s typically slow 2-game slate, the NHL gives us the usually busy slate on Thursday with 11 games from which we may select players for our lineups. A quick glance at the matchups hints that we have some fairly lopsided matchups so tonight will depend on how accurately you can select your goal scorers from a large slate of games.
As a public service announcement, in doing a survey of the pricing for these “Daily Plays,” as I am sure you all know, each daily site has the players priced rather differently. As such, some of the recommended bargain plays may not be bargain plays on, for example, FantasyAces or DraftDay.
Before we dig into today’s daily plays, let’s examine what the current Vegas lines are telling us. Any astute daily fantasy player must be in tune to Vegas lines and over/unders as “they” always know more than we do. Our job is to interpret what these numbers mean so that we can use them in populating a DFS lineup on your favorite site. In looking at the Vegas lines, the heavy favorites are the Kings (-203 over the Hurricanes), the Sharks (-185 over the Panthers), the Stars (-155 over the Coyotes), the Blackhawks (-145 over the Flames), and the Lightning (-137 over the Leafs). Of the twenty-two teams in action, the Flyers and Canucks are playing on back-to-back nights. The Canucks travelled from Edmonton to Vancouver and the Flyers took a bus ride down the 95 from New York back home to Philadelphia. Akin to NBA DFS, there will be times when we will make lineup decisions based off of which teams are the most rested.
Good luck! I will online for most of the day to answer questions in the comments section below or on Twitter @TheTonyM.
Goalies
Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalies listed below are starting prior to puck-drop
Jonathan Quick – Los Angeles Kings – As of the writing of this article, the Vegas moneyline for the Los Angeles Kings skating on home ice against the Carolina Hurricanes was the highest of the night. With a ML sitting at -203 with an over/under of 5.0 goals, the Kings should take this game with ease over a team that is fresh off a surprising 6-4 win over the Dallas Stars, but had lost three in a row prior to that and scored just 2 goals over that span. On the other hand, the Kings started to pick their game back up to where they were during the first month of the season with two straight wins with one of the coming against the Ducks. Undefeated in regulation time in his last six games, Quick has quietly looked superb this season with a 2.04 GAA and a .938 SV%. The word “quietly” is appropriate even for a superstar goaltender as the Kings’ offense has overshadowed Quick thus far. Rostering Quick will not come cheaply ($10,800 on FD and $8,900 on DK), but he should be able to pay off his price tag with a win as well as if the Hurricanes can match their season average of 29.2 shots per 60 minutes. Also consider that even if the Hurricanes can get shots off against a Kings team that owns the sixth best FenwickFor60, the Hurricanes are shooting just 7.07% (seventh worst in the NHL) and they also do not control the puck as seen by their NHL-average FenwickAgainst60.
Other goalies I like tonight that are likely to be get the win are Petr Mrazek, Antti Niemi, and Kari Lehtonen.
Forwards
Disclaimer – Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Alexander Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, Logan Couture, Phil Kessel, and Jakub Voracek carry a high price tag and may also be used as you see fit.
Cody Eakin – Dallas Stars – When news came out Tuesday morning that Eakin skated with Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn on the Stars’ first even strength line, the NHL DFS world suddenly took notice. The Eakin news was just slightly overshadowed by news that Blake Comeau would be skating with Sidney Crosby. Tonight, the Stars play host to an Arizona Coyotes team that is just 4-5-1 on the road and are playing the first game of a three game road trip that will take them out to California from Texas after this game. Professional NHL teams tend not to “look ahead,” but Vegas has the Stars as heavy favorites this evening. What’s important in this game is not whether the Stars win (they are 1-5-4 at home), but whether they score. Much of their scoring is concentrated with their first line and 1st power play unit. In comes Eakin, who is just $4,500 on FD and $4,100 on DK and will give you exposure to Seguin and Benn. On a night where you will want to pay for your goalie, Eakin is a must start value play. What is interesting is that FD now has Eakin listed as a right wing and DK has him listed as a center. He was listed as a center on Tuesday.
Joe Thornton – San Jose Sharks – The Florida Panthers head to the Shark Tank tonight for the third game of their California road trip in which they split their prior two games (a win over the Ducks and a loss to the Kings). Meanwhile, the Sharks need to pick their head of the sand after losing to the Buffalo Sabres two nights ago in Buffalo. Now back on home ice, the Sharks are the second heaviest Vegas favorite of the night. With an over/under of 5.5 goals, you will want shares to at least one Shark skater tonight. (Side note: try not to roster Troy Grosenick who is priced at $20,000 on FD.) As the fifth best puck possession team in the league with a FenwickFor60 of 43.48, the Sharks face a Panthers team that is the 7th worst puck possession team. And while the Panthers have played an excellent brand of defensive-minded hockey, the Sharks will be looking to avenge a 7 game road trip where they lost 4 games. At $6,500 on FD and $5,300 on DK, Thornton gives you exposure to the team’s first even strength line and first power play unit at a significant discount compared to linemates, Patrick Marleau and Joe Pavelski. With at least one point in seven straight games and 19 points on the season (7 goals, 12 assists), Thornton is a value forward that should be on your roster tonight.
Nino Niederreiter – Minnesota Wild – After a 4-3 win over the Winnipeg Jets two nights ago, the Wild face off against the Philadelphia Flyers, who are laying on back-to-back nights with their first line center, Claude Giroux, back in action. With three straight wins, Vegas has the Wild as -123 moneyline favorites against a Flyers team that has the second worst penalty kill in the NHL. While the Wild do not have a great power play unit, the team has scored three power play goals in their past three games. This recent success is due to Niederreiter who has two of those power play goals and skates with Justin Fontaine and Charlie Coyle on the team’s second PP unit and with Mikael Granlund and Fontaine on the team’s second even strength line. With eight goals and two assists on the season, Niederreiter and his linemates should have the most success against the Flyers in Philadelphia as head coach, Craig Berube, will likely match his top line against Minnesota’s “Parise” line which would leave the Wild’s depth lines free to shoot the puck in what should be a high-event game. Moreover, with fresher legs having not played a division rival the night before, look for the Wild (3rd best FenwickFor60) to control the puck against a league average puck possession team.
Other forwards that I like tonight are Logan Couture, Ondrej Palat, Mikael Granlund, Ryan Callahan, Brayden Schenn, Taylor Beck, and Jonathan Drouin.
Defensemen
Disclaimer: Mark Giordano, Shea Weber, Erik Karlsson and P.K. Subban are elite fantasy defensemen and can be used with confidence.
Cody Franson – Toronto Maple Leafs – At just $3,700 on FD (and comparably more expensive at $5,400 on DK), Franson feels like a must play on Thursday. Despite scoring at least one point in eight straight games (2 goals, 8 assists), Franson is priced as just the 49th most expensive defenseman on FD. Contrast that to being the 16th most expensive defenseman on DK. When two DFS sites price a first even strength defenseman and first power play unit defenseman so differently, an analyst’s eyebrow raises. The pricing differential has to do with the downside of potential minuses on FD, but the disparity should not be that vast. That said, with the highest over/under of the night at 6.0 total goals, the Leafs and Lightning should also be the “highest event” game as both the Lightning and Leafs are in the top five in the NHL in total goals for per game. Rostering Franson gives you exposure to what should be a high-scoring game.
Jake Muzzin – Los Angeles Kings – Once a minimum-priced play, the D-man has been skating with Drew Doughty on the Kings’ first even strength defensive pairing and with Doughty on the team’s first power play unit. With three points in his last two games, Muzzin now has 8 points on the season (1 goal, 7 assists) and has looked excellent over his last six games after starting the season late due to an upper-body injury. In fact, Muzzin has scored at least one point in five of his last six games, which points account for all of his season total. Moreover, Muzzin is now averaging 23:46 minutes of ice time per game and that average has been boosted by two minutes since November 2, which is a sign that the D-man is finally healthy. As the heaviest favorite of the night, Muzzin provides you with first line and first power play exposure against a league average penalty kill team in the Hurricanes.
Other defensemen I like tonight are Ryan Suter, Alexander Edler, Roman Josi, Sami Vatanen, and Mike Green.