NHL Daily Plays: Thursday, October 16th
Happy Thursday, fellow NHL DFSers! I have come to love Thursdays from October through April over the past few years as I know that it is the day when I get a chance to share my thoughts on a large platform about the daily fantasy sports landscape. Thank you very much to all of the readers who have said such nice things to me. It really is a pleasure to cover the NHL for you.
Enough fawning, let’s dig in. Following Wednesday’s strange three game slate (um, was that really Jonas Hiller?), the NHL has a shorter than usual slate on Thursday with just seven games from which we may select players for our lineups. A quick glance at the matchups hints that while we do not have our 11 or 12 game slate, we have seven solid games. Plus, we do not have to deal with the Sabres, Flames or Oilers. Early in the season, playing these teams has become much like starting opposing bats when they visit Coors Field.
As a public service announcement, in doing a survey of the pricing for these “Daily Plays,” as I am sure you all know, each daily site has the players priced rather differently. As such, some of the recommended bargain plays may not be bargain plays on, for example, FantasyAces or Victiv.
Before we dig into today’s daily plays, let’s examine what the current Vegas lines are telling us. Any astute daily fantasy player must be in tune to Vegas lines and over/unders as “they” always know more than we do. Our job is to interpret what these numbers mean so that we can use them in populating a DFS lineup on your favorite site. In looking at the Vegas lines, the heavy favorites are the Penguins (-169 over the Stars), the Kings (-133 over the Blues) and the Canadiens (-121 over the Bruins). Of the fourteen teams in action, only the Bruins are playing on back-to-back nights and the Bruins had to travel 560 miles northeast overnight. Akin to NBA DFS, there will be times when we will make lineup decisions based off of which teams are the most rested.
Good luck! I will online for most of the day to answer questions in the comments section below or on Twitter at TheTonyM.
Goalies
Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalie listed below is starting prior to puck-drop.
Henrik Lundqvist – New York Rangers – As of the writing of this article, the Vegas line for the Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Rangers game has yet to be posted. This game is the tail of one team that made an impressive Stanley Cup run last season but has started off cold and another team that has yet to win a game. Sure, the Rangers are in the middle of a three game losing streak, but there are signs that the team is poised to earn a “W” tonight. The most obvious sign is that the Hurricanes have historically struggled in Madison Square Garden where they are 0-6 in the last six games at MSG and are 1-11 in the last 12 games at the Garden. Moreover, the ‘Canes are banged up and will likely be without John-Michael Liles, Eric Staal, Andrej Sekera and Jeff Skinner. Sure, Lundqvist has struggled this season and looks to be a shell of his former self, but his save percentage and goals against average do not mean much against a team that is giving up the 6th most goals per game in the NHL in this young season. King Henrik will get healthy tonight. Other goalies I like tonight that are likely to be get the win are Corey Schneider, Carey Price, Jonathan Quick and Antti Niemi.
Forwards
Disclaimer – Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin, Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Evgeni Malkin carry a high price tag and may also be used as you see fit.
Rick Nash – New York Rangers – As noted above in the Lundqvist discussion, the Rangers should get healthy tonight against a struggling and dinged-up Carolina Hurricanes team that owns the second to worst penalty kill unit in the NHL. We all know that we cannot put much stock into small sample sizes, but when a team has had such bad numbers this early on and is on the road against a team with all of its pieces intact, a smart DFS owner will target the heart. In comes Rick Nash, who has been the lone bright spot for the Rangers through four games. The right winger, who has seven total points (6 G, 1 A and 13 SOG), skates on the team’s first line with Anthony Duclair and Martin St. Louis and with Duclair and Ryan Malone on the team’s first power play unit. Look for Nash to lead the attack tonight for the Rangers and should have a multi-point game.
Brock Nelson – New York Islanders – If you have not done so already, it is time that you, as a member of the loyal NHL DFS family, starts respecting the high-flying ‘gulp’ New York Islanders who have the second most total goals (behind the Ducks), the second most goals per game (behind just the Penguins), the second most power play goals (behind the Lightning), and the second best power play unit (behind the Penguins). Notice that I did not write “second to last” there. Yes, the Islanders are 3-0 and host a San Jose Sharks team who is also 3-0, but is coming off a game where they gave up five goals against the Capitals (with all five goals coming in the second two periods) and are in the midst of an Atlantic Coast road trip. In what should be a fun, high-scoring game, Nelson is a superb value at just $3,700 on FD, a price that is criminally low. The second line left winger and first power play unit winger (who skates with John Tavares and Kyle Okposo on that PP line), already has four goals (two PPGs) and three assists on the season and finds himself in a game that will be fast-paced. At his low price, Nelson should easily surpass value.
Patric Hornqvist – Pittsburgh Penguins – This piece now feels a tad dirty with a recommendation that you start a forward on the Pittsburgh Penguins, but you cannot ignore the production from the team’s first line that consists of Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby and Hornqvist. In your cash games, you need exposure to one of the top two Penguins lines, and when they skate on home ice, you want to target the team’s first line as they will get the last line changes which should allow coach, Mike Johnston, to find the right matchups for his skaters. Not that you need a reason to start a Penguins’ forward, but consider that Hornqvist comes with a $2,700 discount to Crosby and a $500 discount to Kunitz. The winger has two Gs and two As early on in the season to go along with a +3 and 13 SOGs. The offseason trade addition to the Penguins also skates with Kunitz and Crosby on the team’s first PP unit, which is the best in the NHL. The Pens tend to play loose and while the visiting Dallas Stars finally came alive two nights ago, expect the over of 5.5 to hit in this game with at least two goals coming from this top line.
Other forwards that I like tonight: Anthony Duclair, Cory Conacher, Michael Cammalleri, Pascal Dupuis, Tanner Pearson, Brandon Sutter.
Defensemen
Disclaimer: Erik Karlsson, P.K. Subban, Kris Letang and Brent Burns are elite fantasy defensemen and can be used with confidence.
Ryan McDonagh – New York Rangers – As discussed above, the Rangers will control their game against the Hurricanes tonight. McDonagh, who is paired with Dan Girardi as the team’s first even strength defensive unit and with Martin St. Louis on the team’s first PP unit, has yet to log a point this season and has a -3 rating, but he does have nine SOG. The D-man. As I noted last week, in daily fantasy hockey, when choosing your defensemen, in an ideal world, you want to select D-men who see plenty of ice time, power play time and are offensive-minded. It is a bonus when a skater that ticks each of these boxes also comes with a cheaper price tag as compared to similarly situated defensemen. McDonagh is poised to be one of the top two-way defensemen in the NHL and should find his form as the Rangers find their scoring touch.
Johnny Boychuk – New York Islanders – At just $4,200 on FD (but more expensive at $5,200 on DK), Boychuk comes at a “value discount” compared to other defensemen in his price range such as John Carlson, Erik Johnson and Dougie Hamilton. The defenseman, who came over to the Islanders from the Bruins a few days before the season due to salary cap limitations, has been stellar through three games on the Island. Boychuk, who is paired with Nick Leddy on the team’s first defensive unit and with Frans Nielsen on the team’s first PP unit, which has scored on 41.67% of its PP opportunities, has six points (two Gs and four As) and carries a +4 rating. While the D-man has not had to shoot the puck much this season, he has averaged 22 ATOI (average time on ice) per game and has clearly been involved in the Islanders’ offensive attack. In what should an up-tempo game, Boychuk should hit value whether it be a helper or goal on the power play.
Extra Defensive Play and Advanced Statistical Note
Each week, I will try to cover some thoughts and notes that I have been taking as I try to develop a method to predict goal scoring in the NHL. Today’s slate was a tough one to attack. Typically, there are three or four games that stand out either from a Vegas line or matchup perspective. Today was slightly different as most of the games on the 7-game slate look fairly evenly balanced. In trying to determine the players I wanted to attack, I had to follow a different train of thought today. Now bear with me as I develop this statistic and how it correlates to actually predicting goal scoring. As discussed below, I am interested in studying the pace of a hockey game. If you play NBA daily fantasy sports, next to a player’s minutes which are directly correlated to how much he can produce, the most relevant statistic is how many times a team touches the basketball. In hockey, it’s no different; if a team shoots more, changes are there are missed shots off the boards or glass or there are rebounds. This creates more shots and scoring opportunities. The thought here is that if there are more shots per game, theoretically, a team should score more goals if that team’s shooting percentage stays relatively constant within a few standard deviation points. Stepping back, if a team shoots the puck more, then their opponent has the ability to shoot the puck more, which creates more scoring opportunities. Thus, if a team (or teams) plays at a high pace and the puck is actually going towards the goal, a DFS player can expect more fantasy points in that game. Obviously, if a high pace NHL team (meaning a team has over 6.0 TG/G (total goals per game)) and they play another high pace team, there will be more goals in that game compared to two teams who play at 5.5 TG/G pace. My goal is to determine how relevant a team who shoots the puck more than other teams and plays in games where more goals are scored is to predicting goals in any given game before they happen. I just need a name to call all of this. I do not believe no one has thought about this, but I cannot say that I have come across it yet.
Damon Severson – New Jersey Devils – The Devils travel down the 95S into D.C. to take on a Capitals team that came back to tie the San Jose Sharks in the third period before eventually succumbing in a shootout two nights ago. In a pure GPP or salary cap relief play of the night, take a shot with the young Severson, who logged his first NHL goal and assist against the Florida Panthers this past Saturday. The D-man finds himself in a wonderful spot as he is paired with Andy Greene on the Devils’ second defensive unit and with Marek Zidlicky on the team’s first power play unit. While the Devils have just the 11th best PP in the league, the team has scored the 4th most total goals and have the 12th most total goals per game a 6.33 TG/G, which is a statistic that I like to compare to a team’s pace in basketball. Meanwhile, the Capitals play at a “pace” of 6.00 TG/G. With the O/U set at 5.5 in this game, given each teams’ goal scoring (or goal surrendering) ability, make sure you grab some exposure to the Devils’ offense at a cheap price in Severson.
Other defensemen I like tonight are Marek Zidlicky, John Carlson, Alex Pietrangelo, Paul Martin and Christian Ehrhoff.