NHL Daily Plays: Thursday, October 23rd
Happy Thursday, fellow NHL DFSers! This is my favorite day of the week as it means that I have finished studying hard to present this article to you. Once again, thank you very much for the wonderfully kind words and feedback last week.
Following Wednesday’s three-game slate (with one game having been cancelled), the NHL has a shorter than usual slate on Thursday with just eight games from which we may select players for our lineups. A quick glance at the matchups hints that while we do not have our 11 or 12 game slate, we have eight solid games, well, maybe just seven if we eliminate the Kings vs Sabres. My apologies to the one Sabres’ fan that reads this.
As a public service announcement, in doing a survey of the pricing for these “Daily Plays,” as I am sure you all know, each daily site has the players priced rather differently. As such, some of the recommended bargain plays may not be bargain plays on, for example, FantasyAces or DraftDay.
Before we dig into today’s daily plays, let’s examine what the current Vegas lines are telling us. Any astute daily fantasy player must be in tune to Vegas lines and over/unders as “they” always know more than we do. Our job is to interpret what these numbers mean so that we can use them in populating a DFS lineup on your favorite site. In looking at the Vegas lines, the heavy favorites are the Kings (-342 over the Sabres), the Wild (-178 over the Coyotes), the Sharks (-172 over the Blue Jackets), the Blues (-170 over the Canucks), and the Bruins (-166 over the Islanders). Of the sixteen teams in action, only the Penguins and Sabres are playing on back-to-back nights with the Sabres taking a short bus ride to Los Angeles from Anaheim. Akin to NBA DFS, there will be times when we will make lineup decisions based off of which teams are the most rested.
Good luck! I will online for most of the day to answer questions in the comments section below or on Twitter @TheTonyM.
Goalies
Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalie listed below is starting prior to puck-drop
Jonathan Quick – Los Angeles Kings – As of the writing of this article, the Vegas moneyline for the Los Angeles Kings skating on home ice against the Buffalo Sabres was the highest we have seen thus far in the season. Sitting at -342 as of the time of the publication of this article, with an over/under of 5 goals, the Kings won the “who gets to throttle the Sabres” lottery of the night. At $10,200 on FD and $9,200 on DK, Quick is the most expensive goalie of the night, but on FD, he is a near must play in your cash games since the site weights the win so heavily. Do not make this decision difficult as Quick is 3-1 with a .951 SV% and a 1.86 GAA and faces the team that has scored the fewest goals this season with just 8 goals in 6 games. Interestingly enough, Quick has faced the most shots (tied with Jhonas Enroth), but he has the most saves in the league. With this statistic, Quick not only has a great floor, but he has a high ceiling as the Sabres do shoot the puck and the Kings freely give up shots.
Tuukka Rask – Boston Bruins – This suggestion is a DraftKings-only play as Rask is significantly cheaper than Quick at just $7,900. The Bruins open as -166 ML favorites at the Garden against the New York Islanders, a solid offensive team that has scored the third most goals thus far, but has historically struggled in Boston (4-10 over their last 14 games). Rask is a better GPP play tonight as he will be less-owned than the similarly-priced netminders in the low $8K range on DK as well as Jake Allen, who will be highly-owned and is significantly cheaper than Quick and Rask on FD and DK. The Bruins showed sparks of opening up their offense against the Sharks two nights ago and have also shown the ability to play either quickly or slowly as the pace of the game and their opponent has dictated. The Islanders tend to play a quick game, but look for the Bruins to slow down the Isles’ speedy forwards, which will minimize their scoring opportunities.
Other goalies I like tonight that are likely to be get the win are Antti Niemi, Darcy Kuemper, and Jake Allen.
Forwards
Disclaimer – Sidney Crosby, Henrik Zetterberg, Patrick Kane, Zach Parise, Chris Kunitz, Patrick Sharp, Joe Pavelski and Evgeni Malkin carry a high price tag and may also be used as you see fit.
Tanner Pearson – Los Angeles Kings – As noted above in the Quick discussion, the Kings should continue to dominate tonight against a hapless Buffalo Sabres team that has surrendered the sixth most goals in the league this season. We all know that we cannot put much stock into small sample sizes, but when a team has had such bad numbers this early on and is on the road against a team with an efficient shooters, a smart DFS owner will target the throat. In comes Tanner Pearson, who continues to be underpriced on both FD ($4,900) and DK ($3,900). The left winger, who has seven total points (5 G, 2 A, +7 and 9 SOG), skates on the team’s second line with Jeff Carter and Tyler Toffoli and with Jarret Stoll and Justin Williams on the team’s second power play unit. Ideally, Pearson would see time with the Kings’ first PP unit, but when you can roster a high-quality shooter on a great team that is facing a poor defensive squad, roster him and utilize your savings elsewhere.
Jaden Schwartz – St. Louis Blues – As I noted in the DFS NHL Primer, the key to being able to afford superstar skaters and goaltenders is to roster inexpensive players that have experienced an increase in their role on the team. With an upper body injury to Paul Stastny, coach Ken Hitchcock had to do some line shuffling. Schwartz may play on the Blues’ “third line” with Chris Porter and Vladimir Tarasenko, but he also skates with David Backes and Tarasenko on the team’s first power play unit, which, as a team, is the second best in the NHL. At $6,600 on FD and $6,800 on DK, Schwartz is underpriced compared to his production this season and his increased role on the Blues. With 4 Gs (with two being PPGs) and 3 As in just five games, Schwartz and the Blues should skate up in pace tonight against the Canucks who are averaging 2.20 TG/G more than the home team. Moreover, the Canucks tend to play more open hockey on the road than at home and the Blues’ size and speed compared to the Canucks should give the Blues more firepower in the high-pace game.
Jason Pominville – Minnesota Wild – The Minnesota Wild open as -178 ML favorites tonight on home ice against the on-again, off-again Arizona Coyotes, who have dropped two straight games to the Blues and Predators and are now facing one of toughest teams in the NHL in a get-away-game. While the Wild play the slowest-paced game in the league (3.50 TG/G), the Coyotes play the fastest-paced game in the league (7.60 TG/G). However, if you examine the total shots for per game (Wild at 37.8 SF/G, Coyotes at 31.8) and the total shots against per game (Wild at 22.0 SA/G, Coyotes at 28.4 SA/G), these figures tell a different story. Taken together, it is clear that the Wild play just as a quick of a high-event game pace as the Coyotes, with the statistics leaning heavily towards the Wild being the much more efficient and, thus, productive, team. At $6,000 on FD, Pominville presents a nice value at the wing slot, which you will want to use on your goalie (Quick) or a superstar center. The winger skates with Zach Parise and Mikael Granlund on the Wild’s first even strength line and with Ryan Suter at the point on the team’s first power play unit. While Pominville has just two points on the season, you are paying for the skater’s possible role on the Wild and the Wild’s overpowering matchup against the Coyotes. Look for Pominville to hit value with at least a goal, an assist and a few shots on goal as Parise and company coast to victory.
Other forwards that I like tonight are Mikko Koivu, Tyler Toffoli, Tommy Wingels, Jiri Hudler and Mason Raymond.
Defensemen
Disclaimer: Mark Giordano, Duncan Keith, Kris Letang and Brent Burns are elite fantasy defensemen and can be used with confidence.
T.J. Brodie – Calgary Flames – Fresh off a contract extension (5 years, $23M), the Flames’ defenseman has 7 points (3 G, 4 A) in 8 games this season and sees ice time with superstar, Mark Giordano, on the team’s first defensive unit as well as its first power play unit. Rostering any Calgary Flames skater (or goalie) may make your stomach churn, but they have provided decent results and tonight should be no exception against the dinged-up Carolina Hurricanes. Vegas has opened up the books with the Flames as -150 ML favorites, which should be no surprise as the Hurricanes have yet to win a game this season and have scored the fourth fewest goals while giving up the 15th most goals. The Canes actually play a slightly higher-paced game than the Flames, which should benefit the speedy Flames. One item to note is that Brodie is just $4,300 on FD, which is a value compared to D-men who have less extensive roles on their respective teams and he should be in line to record at least an assist, a +2 and shoot a few pucks on goal (when he averages 2.125 SOG/G). However, his price tag on DK of $5,000 is more prohibitive and I am more inclined to spend $500 less on the skater discussed below.
Drew Doughty – Los Angeles Kings – At just $4,500 on DK (but more expensive at $5,400 on FD), Doughty comes at a “value discount” compared to other defensemen in his price range such as Torey Krug, Mark Giordano, Johnny Boychuck, Roman Josi and Niklas Kronwall. The defenseman may have just 2 assists through the Kings first six games, but he has registered 11 shots on goal and has averaged a gaudy 27:07 minutes of ice time per game, which is just under 3 minutes shy of half the contest. With Slayva Voynov’s indefinite suspension from the NHL, Doughty will be asked to increase his offensive production as his fellow defenseman, Jacob Muzzin, will play the more defensive role of the pair. In what should an up-tempo game, Doughty should hit value whether it be a helper or goal on the power play.
Other defensemen I like tonight are Ryan Suter, Torey Krug, Alex Pietrangelo, Jared Spurgeon and Christian Ehrhoff.
Advanced Statistical Note – Part II
In my task to create a statistic that accurately projects offensive production at both a team level as well as a skater level, I found myself playing with the total goals per game (TG/G) numbers and the total shots per game (S/G) numbers for each team since last week. Specifically, I focused on TG/G and S/G both for and against a team as well as the interaction of those figures. As previously discussed in this column, I am interested in studying the pace of a hockey game. I started to sprinkle the thought process this week, but my though is that if a team shoots more, chances are there are missed shots off the boards or glass or there are rebounds, which necessarily creates more shots and scoring opportunities. The thought here is that if there are more shots per game, theoretically, a team should score more goals if that team’s shooting percentage stays relatively constant within a few standard deviation points.
While the TG/G statistic is helpful when understanding how a team plays as compared to its opponent on any given night, I want to add in both the shots per game (SP/G) and shots against per game (SA/G) numbers, which should present a better understanding of high-event hockey. At the end of the day, if a team does not shoot the puck, there will be no goals scored (yes, there are exceptions). So, while it is helpful to understand how much a team controls the puck, puck movement without shots towards the net is less important than shots at the net and the resulting goals. After all, as I have previously mentioned, the more scoring chances there are, the more goals that are likely to occur. The way to apply this theory is to create a statistic (let’s call in “Nils” for now), that measures the type of hockey game that is likely to result in higher scoring than another game. In high-event or pressured games, if two teams are continually pressing the puck towards the other team’s net rather than simply keeping the puck in the neutral zone or on the boards, a team’s shooting percentage goes up as it is easier to score in front of the net than it is from the circles or points.
My problem now is that I need to determine how to weight the TG/G per team and SF/G and SA/G statistics. Since I have been tracking these numbers, my Nils predictions loosely indicate that a team that has a higher than average TG/G ratio and higher than average SF/G ratio play at a quicker pace and are more likely to finish on the “over” side of a Vegas O/U. Of course, this is just part of the story as we need to understand how the TGA/G (total goals against per game) and SA/G interact with the positive iterations of these statistics. Until next week, Nils will remain a work in progress.