NHL Daily Plays: Thursday, October 9th
Happy Thursday, fellow NHL DFSers! Day 2 is upon us. It is great to be back writing my weekly NHL Daily Plays piece every Thursday from now until April. With the start of every new professional sports season, we see more and more excitement in our industry. This has never been truer than over the past week in anticipation of the start of the NHL season.
I have the honor of digging in to the first full slate of the 2014-2015 NHL season after a wonderful Opening Night. Following Wednesday’s 4-game slate, the NHL is once again back in full force tonight with 24 teams in action with a few matchups that deserve our attention.
As a public service announcement, in doing a survey of the pricing for these “Daily Plays,” as I am sure you all know, each daily site has the players priced rather differently. As such, some of the recommended bargain plays may not be bargain plays on, for example, FantasyAces.
Before we dig into today’s daily plays, let’s examine what the current Vegas lines are telling us. Any astute daily fantasy player must be in tune to Vegas lines and over/unders as “they” always know more than we do. Our job is to interpret what these numbers mean so that we can use them in populating a DFS lineup on your favorite site. In looking at the Vegas lines, the heavy favorites are the Lightning (-179 over the Panthers), the Blues (-150 over the Rangers), the Oilers (-139 over the Flames), and the Coyotes (-139 over the Jets). As of this writing, three lines have not been posted (Ducks at Penguins, Canadiens at Capitals, and Bruins at Red Wings). Of the twenty-four teams in action, the Flyers, Canadiens, Bruins, and Flames are playing on back-to-back nights and each of them had to travel with the Bruins flying the furthest. Akin to NBA DFS, there will be times when we will make lineup decisions based off of which teams are the most rested.
Good luck! I will online for most of the day to answer questions in the comments section below or on Twitter @TheTonyM.
Goalies
Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalie listed below is starting prior to puck-drop
Sergei Bobrovsky – Columbus Blue Jackets – In the lottery of “who gets to face the Buffalo Sabres tonight”, Sergei Bobrovsky wins. While Vegas only has the Blue Jackets as a -123 moneyline favorite to open, Bobrovsky is my number one goalie this evening. The Sabres were dead last or second to last in each of the most important offensive statistics last season, and while they went on a free agency binge in the offseason, it may take a few weeks before the team’s chemistry has time to gel. Of the top 5 most expensive goalies on FanDuel tonight, Bob has the best matchup on paper. Arguably, Ben Bishop is a bargain at a $500 discount to Bobrovsky. And while the Blue Jackets have a handful of injuries to its skaters, the difference for me over Bishop is that the Sabres should shoot the puck more at home than the Panthers will on the road in Tampa, thus leading to more saves for Bobrovsky. Do not over think this one: start the goalie for the team who needs him the most against the Sabres who scored 35 fewer goals than any other team in the NHL last season. Other goalies I like tonight that are likely to be get the win are Ben Bishop, Mike Smith and Ben Scrivens.
Forwards
Disclaimer – Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, Zach Parise and Evgeni Malkin carry a high price tag and may also be used as you see fit.
Patric Hornqvist – Pittsburgh Penguins – My first “value” skater of the year has to be the least expensive player that should experience the “Crosby Effect”. The Penguins’ first even strength line and first power play line looks to consist of Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby and Patric Hornqvist. Word out of training camp was that Hornqvist was to play with Evgeni Malkin so pay attention to the line combinations prior to lineup lock at 7pm EST. The RW was acquired from the Nashville Predators in a trade that shipped James Neal out of Pittsburgh after coming off a career year in which he registered 22 goals and 31 assists in 76 games on a team that lacked the firepower as compared to the Penguins. Regardless of which superstar Hornqvist skates with in the season opener, grab him at a value compared to Kunitz, Crosby and Malkin.
Tyler Johnson – Tampa Bay Lightning – The theme of the day seems to be to grab skaters who play alongside superstars in order to get exposure to the production of those superstars at a fraction of the price. Next up is a Calder Trophy nominee following his rookie season in which the winger notched 24 goals and 26 assists to go along with 181 SOG. Johnson should skate on the Lightning’s first line with Steven Stamkos and Ondrej Palat and with Alex Killorn and Vladislav Namestnikov on the team’s second power play unit. While the winger (who is center eligible only on FD) will not skate with Palat and Stamkos on a power play line, he is $1,600 cheaper than Palat and gets you exposure to Stamkos while allowing you to spend the savings elsewhere. A solid stack for cash games, due to the Florida Panthers’ inept defensive play, would be this first line. An extra kicker is that Johnson should be in near midseason form as he spent time playing with Team USA in the World Championships.
Vladimir Tarasenko – St. Louis Blues – You may think this is an odd call as the Blues are facing Henrik Lundqvist. However, the Blues should start off the season hot as they did last year, especially on home ice. The team continued to build in the off-season and Tarasenko will start off skating with the newly-signed, Paul Stastny, and Alexander Steen on the Blues second even strength line and will also see time on the team’s first power play unit with Stastny and David Backes (with Steen and Kevin Shattenkirk at the points). Vegas has the Blues at -150 ML favorites to open with the O/U set at 5.5 goals, which is normal early in the season. While the O/U itself does not give us much information of where the game ultimately ends up, I want exposure to the Blues’ offensive attack, and while Tarasenko is not the cheapest forward at $6,400, he does skate with solid linemates and even better ones on the power play unit. The difference for me in this game is that because the Blues are on home ice, they will get the last line changes which should allow coach, Ken Hitchcock, to find the right matchups for his skaters.
Other skaters I like tonight are T.J. Oshie, Patrik Berglund, Paul Stastny, Jordan Eberle, Shane Doan, and Ryan Callahan.
Defensemen
Disclaimer: Shea Weber, Erik Karlsson, P.K. Subban and Duncan Keith are elite fantasy defensemen and can be used with confidence.
Kevin Shattenkirk – St. Louis Blues – As discussed above, the Blues have a strong matchup on home ice against the Rangers. In daily fantasy hockey, when choosing your defensemen, in an ideal world, you want to select D-men who see plenty of ice time, power play time and are offensive-minded. It is a bonus when a skater that ticks each of these boxes also comes with a cheaper price tag as compared to similarly situated defensemen. In comes Kevin Shattenkirk, who is paired with Jay Bouwmeester on the Blues’ second defensive unit and with Alexander Steen on the team’s first power play unit. At $5,000 on FD, Shattenkirk is more expensive than a mid-range defensemen, but he is also cheaper than Shea the league’s other premiere offensive-minded defenseman such as P.K. Subban, Shea Weber and Kris Letang.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Arizona Coyotes – The first Coyotes skater that I will recommend tonight is not a value play at $5,100, but he fits the mold of targeting offensive defensemen in DFS. You will need to find some savings at your other defense slot or at wing slot tonight in order to roster the man I affectionately like to call “the hyphen” Coming off a season in which “the hyphen” scored 15 goals and 29 assists, including 8 power play goals, OEL is paired with * Zbynek Michalek* as well as with Keith Yandle on the team’s first power play unit. The Coyotes find themselves in a good spot tonight on home ice first the time as the “Arizona” Coyotes as -139 ML favorites against the Winnipeg Jets, who open the season on a southwest to west coast road trip. Not only were the Jets a slightly worse than mediocre team last season, but they have historically struggled against the Coyotes in Arizona where they are 1-8-1 in their last 10 games. The Coyotes open style of play should allow them to put plenty of shots on Ondrej Pavelec, who posted a 22-26-7 record along with a 3.01 GAA and .901 SV%, which were both the worst numbers he has posted in the three years the team has been back in Manitoba. Other defensemen I like tonight are Justin Schultz, Keith Yandle, Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk, Paul Martin and Christian Ehrhoff.