NHL DFS Slate Summary: Saturday, February 17th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NHL DFS Slate Summary. In this article, we’ll concentrate on the key elements of DFS success while delivering analysis on the upcoming slate of NHL games for DraftKings and FanDuel. We’ll discuss today’s NHL DFS player projections, player correlations and NHL stacking, NHL starting lineups, differentiation tactics using NHL projected ownership, and recommendations on ways to create lineup diversity if entering multiple lineups using LineupHQ.
NHL DFS Picks: Slate Summary for Saturday, February 17th
Today’s Games
Slate Overview
I see some unfamiliar faces around here… Ohhh, it’s all of you NBA degenerates trying to scratch your DFS itch with some puck. Welcome. There’s punch and other refreshments in the lobby, and don’t forget your name tag. But seriously, before I go any further, the most important thing you can do is join the RG NHL Discord channel. People are extremely helpful in not only answering questions, but also posting any updates to lines or player statuses.
The NHL opted for an abundance of games throughout the day rather than loading up the primetime hours. I can’t say it’s a bad strategy, although it does leave a much smaller slate for us. Instead, there are only six games for us to parse through. One team (and really one player) stands head and shoulders above the rest. The Maple Leafs should reach levels of chalk we rarely see in NHL DFS. For the NBA players who rarely play NHL, it’s extremely rare for a player to eclipse 40%+ ownership due to the volatile nature of the sport. I think we’ll see that for a skater or two tonight.
After Toronto’s implied team total of 4.3, the drop-off is significant, with several teams making up the second tier. Columbus (3.5) is the second team (gross), and then there is a slew of teams in the 3.1 to 3.3 range. Outside of Toronto, I expect ownership to be evenly distributed across many of the other teams. That means the slate will likely depend on how these secondary stacks (and your goalie) perform.
From an injury standpoint, the biggest news as of this morning is that Toronto’s John Tavares will miss tonight’s game. That opens up a slot in the top 6 to Max Domi and also a valuable power play slot, likely to either Domi or Tyler Bertuzzi.
Let’s break it all down.
Top Skaters
Auston Matthews
DraftKings $9,500
Remember that mystery player who’s going to be absurdly owned? Surprise! It’s Auston Matthews. Even those who don’t follow hockey closely know about Matthews and his scoring prowess, so I don’t think this will be a surprise to anyone.
Let’s discuss the case for fading him before we get to the good stuff. First (and the most obvious reason) is ownership. As I mentioned before, he’ll touch crazy levels given the matchup and small slate. Second is that Anaheim goalies do have a tendency to pull ridiculous games right out of their… pads. In fact, the only other time these two teams met, Lukas Dostal had 55 saves and allowed just two goals.
All right, now for the lengthy list of pros as to why Matthews is an excellent play. He’s coming off a hat trick in his last game, which he’s a threat to have again tonight. He’ll also be at home where he’s even more lethal and should have favorable matchups throughout. His goalscoring prop is a ridiculous -150 at most sportsbooks, which is as high as we’ll see this year.
The talent is great, but the matchup is what puts Matthews in a league of his own tonight. The Ducks take the most penalties in the NHL, and they lead by a wide margin. Their penalty kill ranks in the bottom third of the league. Toronto’s power play meanwhile is fourth in the NHL at 26%+. That’s a devastating combo that could lead to multiple power-play goals for the Maple Leafs and specifically Matthews. In thinking about what price I would pay for AM34 tonight, I think the number I settled on was close to $11,000. That makes him a relative bargain at under $10,000.