NHL DFS Slate Summary: Monday December 5th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NHL DFS Slate Summary. In this article, we’ll concentrate on the key elements of DFS success while delivering analysis on the upcoming slate of NHL slate of games for DraftKings and FanDuel. We’ll discuss today’s NHL DFS player projections, player correlations and NHL stacking, injuries to monitor, NHL starting lineups, differentiation tactics using NHL projected ownership, and recommendations on ways to create lineup diversity if entering multiple lineups using LineupHQ.
There are six games on the main slate tonight, which is a solid number and one of my favorite types of slates to target. The game of the night from a pure hockey standpoint is undoubtably the Golden Knights and Bruins, but it might not be quite as desirable from a DFS perspective. The Flames come in at by far the biggest favorite at -330 and should be pretty chalky given their reasonable price tags. The only potential issue is that their production can often get spread throughout the lineup, at times limiting the upside of individual skaters. After that, many will look towards the big guns of McDavid, MacKinnon, and Draisaitl. It’s borderline impossible to play them all unless you want to play $3k players in the other five skater slots, but picking and choosing which studs to prioritize could be the key to unlocking the slate.
Note: Since I’m going with both MacKinnon and McDavid (which might appear quite obvious to many), I’ll include a few extra skaters today and make all of the write-ups a bit shorter.
It appears Connor McDavid has turned the NHL 23 setting to “Easy” again and is making the rest of the league look silly on a nightly basis. He has four consecutive multi-point games and a total of 11 points during that span. He’ll be at home where he is averaging two points per game (26 in 13 games). He’ll face Washington for the second time this season. In the first matchup he had a pair of points. Are you noticing a trend? All of this points towards another multi-point game on Monday.
Nathan MacKinnon performances lately look like chopped liver compared to McDavid, but a filet mignon compared to just about everyone else in the NHL. The SOG volume has been outstanding over his last six games where he’s averaging 7.0 shots per game. He’ll face a Flyers team who have lost 12 of their last 13 games (yikes) and are known to let in goals in bunches. Load up MacKinnon with confidence tonight.
It seems to be like Zibanejad is having a bit of a ho-hum season, at least compared to some of the other superstars. But his stats don’t really support that notion with 28 points in 26 games. I think the missing piece for fantasy has been the upside with just one multi-point game in his last eleven games. But the consistency has been a major plus with points in ten of those eleven appearances. The SOG volume is also back up after a temporary dip with SOG totals of 4, 5, 4, and 4 over his last four games. The matchup with St. Louis isn’t one to stay away from, and I think Zibanejad could go comparatively underowned tonight.
Bo Horvat is a great contrarian play tonight in large field tournaments. His game logs paint the perfect GPP target as he’s often a boom-or-bust selection. In his last ten games, he has eight games of less than 15 fantasy points. But in the two he did eclipse 15+ points, he had 30+ points. So while someone like Zibanjejad above lives in the 15-20 point range most nights, Horvat is the opposite and could be just what your lineup needs to separate itself from the field.
Top Skater Values (Pts/$)
With most people trying to prioritize jamming in the big guns with value plays, there’s merit to going with more of a balanced build tonight and hoping that the chalky value busts and the studs don’t kill you. That being said, here are a few of my favorite values:
The number of injuries to forwards currently sustained by the Avalanche is borderline ridiculous with Landeskog, Nichushkin, Rodridgues, and Lehkonen all currently unavailable. The latest beneficiary appears to be Alex Newhook, who will be centering the second line and on the first power play unit. Newhook has shown plenty of flashes in the past, so there is enough skill to match the opportunity. At a minimum price on DK, he’s a near lock for cash games and can be considered in tournaments if you’re not wanting to fade the chalk.
Mangiapane has one of my favorite names to say in the NHL, so it’s a real bummer there aren’t currently any live NHL shows. He doesn’t play on the first line at even strength or the number one power play, which would seem like a pair of non-starters for fantasy. But Mangiapane receives good usage for his price tag and is likely to see 17+ minutes if the game stays competitive. He’s heating up and has a pair of multi-point games over his last three, including his first multi-goal game of the season in his last time out against the Capitals.
Top Goalie Projections
Of all the teams on the slate, I’m targeting… the Golden Knights? The team with a Top 5 offense in the NHL? That’s how confident I am in Ullmark and the team in front of him. Ullmark has put himself firmly into the Vezina Trophy discussion with a superb start to the year. The numbers are sparking anywhere (14-1-0, 1.93 GAA, .936 SV%), but are nearly flawless at home (9-0-0, 1.61 GAA, .946 SV%). On a normal night, the primary risk with him is potentially not seeing enough shot volume to give him a ceiling, but that should be less of an issue against Vegas.
Other Options: Alexandar Georgiev, Sam Montembeault (GPPs/Value)
Top Stack Projections
With the shuffling of the Colorado lines, I think one gets much easier to recommend as the Oilers have their stud forwards loaded up on a single line. McDavid and Draisaitl are the obvious selections, but don’t forget to include Zach Hyman. Many might scoff at the elevated price tag, but he’s getting the full power play usage in the absence of Evander Kane, which has raised his floor and ceiling significantly. I’ll admit, I’m batting about .250 in trying to pick between Evan Bouchard and Tyson Barrie on any given night, so just flip a coin. They seem to alternate PP usage depending on who took the last shift and who has the freshest legs. Good luck and just play whoever between the two that I don’t.
Other Options: COL1/2/PP1, CGY2/PP1 (Value), WSH1/PP1 (GPPs)
Image Credit: Imagn
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NHL DFS Slate Summary. In this article, we’ll concentrate on the key elements of DFS success while delivering analysis on the upcoming slate of NHL slate of games for DraftKings and FanDuel. We’ll discuss today’s NHL player projections, player correlations and NHL stacking, injuries to monitor, NHL starting lineup news and notes, differentiation tactics using NHL projected ownership, and recommendations on ways to create lineup diversity if entering multiple lineups using LineupHQ.