NHL Thanksgiving: Projecting Points and DraftStreet Lineup

by landsharkhockey Last Updated 2011-11-29 19:31:14

Hope you enjoyed the Thanksgiving festivities and a night off from NHL action. We’re now roughly 1/4 of the way through the NHL season, so it seems like an opportune time to step back and look at what’s gone down so far. If we project the current paces out over the course of the season, we would certainly see some surprising results. Since there’s little chance of it playing out that way, I’ll break down which trends we can expect to continue, and which ones can be chalked up to a short-term situation. Consider this advice as you jump back into 13 games worth of NHL action on Draftstreet tonight.

First off, if the current paces played out as they are, point totals among the leaders would be somewhat in line with the last couple seasons, with just a couple of players topping 100 points. Phil Kessel would earn the scoring title with about 116 points, which would be the highest Art Ross total in 5 years. Of course, the likelihood of that happening is very slim.
The more surprising stat is in the goal department. At the current pace, we would see an astounding 14 players hit the 40 goal plateau. That’s unheard of in the past decade. Last year, just 5 players hit that mark. While it’s expected for snipers like Stamkos and Giroux to keep up that pace, it seems like a stretch for the likes of Ryan Smyth, Joffrey Lupul, and Kris Versteeg to continue their scoring frenzy. So, looking at the current leader board, let’s break down the players who you can count on to keep up the good work, and those whom we should congratulate on a fine start and call it even. (Current goal / point pace in parenthesis).

Solid Bets

These are the early front runners that you should continue to bank on when setting your roster on Draftstreet:

Phil Kessel (TOR – 64 goals / 116 points)

Despite his streaky history, you can’t argue with 16 goals in 19 games. The Leafs sold the farm to acquire his shot a couple years back, hoping this day would come. He won’t be the last guy picked at this year’s All Star Game, but he probably won’t be the first either. He won’t reach 64 goals, but 50 are a solid bet. He’s reasonably priced on Draftstreet for what he’s been doing so far.

Claude Giroux (PHI – 44 goals / 104 points)

I’m still picking this guy to ultimately win the scoring title this season. Pure magic. I believe he’ll top his current pace and hit 50 goals.

James Neal (PIT – 48 goals / 84 points)

There are some theories that suggest the return of Crosby will hold him back, as he’ll have to give up the sweet spot on the power play. Rubbish. First off, how likely is it that Crosby/Staal/Malkin will stay healthy for long? Neal will be counted on all season as a go-to guy on the Penguin power play. 40 goals and 80 points are a sure thing this year.

Steven Stamkos (TB – 44 goals / 76 points)

I believe he will ultimately blow away these projected totals. Stamkos is top 3 in terms of pure talent in the league. He could easily reach 90 points.

Daniel Sedin (VAN – 24 goals / 96 points)

Goal scoring is obviously down for Daniel. Even brother Henrik as more on the season. Don’t expect that to last. He will crush his current pace of 24 goals and should have a fair shot at the century mark in points once more.

End of the Line

The leaderboard is littered with new names over past seasons. Here are a few that are playing over their heads right now and should see a correction downward:

Joffrey Lupul (TOR – 40 goals / 100 points)

Lupul as been waiting for this opportunity since he was drafted 7th overall in 2002. While he will no doubt set career highs in all major categories, it’s unrealistic to think he double his previous high of 50 points when it’s all said and done. 40 goals is a stretch, but possible. 35 is the more likely scenario. 100 points is just silly to consider. At $13.6k, he’s probably a bit overvalued on Draftstreet at this point.

Kris Versteeg (FLA – 44 goals / 100 points)

Seriously? You have to love what’s going on with the Panthers right now, but this is the Panthers. Can it really last? Is Kris Versteeg really a 40 goal / 100 point player? No. He is not. Ride him while the wave lasts, but don’t expect that 13k cap hit to stay that high come January.

Jason Pominville (BUF – 32 goals / 92 points)

Aside from a point a game season in 2007-08, Pominville has been a steady 60 point guy, pretty much for the past decade. Why should we believe that this is the year he flirts with 90 points? He’s topped 30 goals once before, so you can look for that to happen, but the point pace will correct itself.

Ryan Smyth (EDM – 44 goals / 80 points)

When the Oilers brought Smyth back home this summer, there was all kinds of press using the words “veteran presence” and “steady influence”. I don’t recall reading “Rocket Richard” or “Art Ross contender” in any those articles. And with good reason. The first quarter has been a dream for the feisty winger, but dreams rarely last a full season. His injury history alone is enough to bet that 80 points are just not possible. Few players in NHL history have recorded their first 40 goals season at age 36. Don’t expect it to happen here.

Time for a Recovery

While some players have bolted out to a fantastic start, there are plenty of fantasy studs that have stumbled out of the gate. Here are a few that appear nowhere near the leaderboard, but should sneak their way back in by season’s end:

Alex Ovechkin (WAS – 28 goals / 60 points)

No doubt, there’s something wrong with #8 at this point. However, it’s completely unrealistic to think he could play a full slate of games and finish under 30 goals and 60 points. The problem right now is that he’s still priced like an elite forward. If we see a downward correction on his Draftstreet cap hit, get him back in your lineup and hope you catch the return to greatness at the right moment.

Corey Perry (ANA – 28 goals / 56 points)

Hey, has anyone seen Perry? (sorry for the Phineas and Ferb reference there). Did all that hardware go to his head last season? Can he really go from tops in the league to 28 goals and a -32 rating? Seems highly unlikely. After seeing his point totals rise in each of his first 6 seasons, it’s not shocking that a set back may occur at some point; however, this is too much. He’ll be back in the mix by Spring for sure.

Ilya Kovalchuk (NJ – 16 goals / 44 points)

Sure, he hasn’t come close to living up to that contract since signing with the Devils. But I can’t picture a season where Kovalchuk finishes with 16 goals. It defies reason. He’s shown some glimmers of hope since returning from injury with 2 goals in 3 games. He’s actually a pretty good bargain right now on Draftstreet, coming in around 12k.

Henrik Zetterberg (DET – 16 goals / 36 points)

Of the guys who can’t blame their results on injury, Zetterberg may be the hardest to explain away. How can a guy this talented finish the season under 40 points. If you’re looking for signs of life, he recorded his first multi-point game of the season against Anaheim last weekend. While a return to the elite level is unreasonable at this point, you should expect a dramatic rebound soon from Hank.

Tonight’s Lineup on Draftstreet

So many choices, particularly in net. I like Fleury, Enroth, and perhaps Halak (if he starts). Safest bet looks like whomever is playing the Isles. That falls to Brodeur tonight.

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About the Writer: ‘Chewy’ aka Gary Wilson, operates LandShark Hockey, and has been helping others dominate Fantasy Hockey Leagues for almost 20 years now. Landshark Hockey provides fantasy hockey fans with daily news, updates, and draft strategy including the LandShark Hockey War Room for Daily Fantasy Hockey Lineup Help.