NHL Thursday: Goalie Picks for DraftStreet

by landsharkhockey Last Updated 2012-02-02 17:49:48

The first step to compiling a winning NHL roster on Draftstreet is to pick a winner in net. With 3 points on the table for a win and 2 more for a shutout, it should be obvious that selecting the man with the best chance of earning a W is a good place to start. Draftstreet weighs saves more heavily than most other daily sites, which is a good thing, so keep in mind you’ll want to favor goalies who see a lot of shots (and tend to stop them).

There are eight games on the schedule for tonight, which means about half the league is in play. The problem, as always, is forecasting who will be starting in net, so I’m working off of best guess at the time of writing this. Always circle back and get confirmation before game time, in case you need to make a last-minute swap. Fortunately, Draftstreet offers a fantastic mass-editing tool, so you can make replacements quickly across all of your rosters for the day. Today, I’ll walk through the process of making a solid choice for your goaltender tonight.

Goalies at First Glance

At first glance, one early favorite pops out. Boston, perhaps the best team in the NHL, gets a shot at Carolina (one of the worst) at home tonight. Regardless of who starts for the Bruins (Thomas/Rask), you’re looking at a highly favorable matchup, but at a significant cost. Both goalies rank among the most expensive on Draftstreet this season, because they deliver close to 9 FPPG on average.

There’s a Titan matchup late tonight between Detroit and Vancouver. Both teams have just 2 losses in the last 10 games and are playing at the top of their game. On most nights, Howard, Luongo, and Schneider are worth a look. Tonight, I’ll probably steer clear of these options, as it’s a complete coin flip, and all of these men will break the bank for your salary cap.

Checking the Trendy Goalies

The next thing to consider is who is hot and cold in terms of wins/losses and goals allowed. I’ll primarily consider team records over the past 10 games, but a glance at the overall standings also help to paint the picture. Of the sixteen teams in action tonight, here are the ones with a target on their back:

1. Edmonton – 3-5-2
2. Colorado – 3-6-1
3. Minnesota – 3-6-1
4. Winnepeg – 3-6-1
5. Carolina – 4-4-2
6. Montreal – 4-4-2
7. Dallas – 4-5-1

All six of these teams are struggling to win right now, and have struggled for most of the season. Only Minnesota is currently in a playoff position (8th in the West). Of these crews, Carolina, Colorado and Edmonton have allowed the most goals. Minnesota, Winnepeg, and Dallas are among the worst in the league for goals scored and have struggled big time in recent games to put the puck in the net. All told, all seven of these teams are worth betting against tonight.

On the positive side, these teams are at the top of their game right now:

1. Nashville – 9-1
2. Detroit – 8-2-0
3. Vancouver – 7-2-1
4. New Jersey – 6-3-1
5. Chicago – 5-2-3
6. San Jose – 5-3-2

Not surprisingly, all six of these teams are in playoff spots right now and for the most part do just fine in both goals for and goals against on the season.

Consider the Matchups

Now, I can return to the matchups and see which ones make sense for tonight. I’ve already eliminated the Detroit / Vancouver option. It’s equally tough to predict the outcome of the Minnesota / Colorado contest, with both teams playing so poorly. Here are most favorable matchups, as I see it, paying no mind to salary yet:

1. Boston (Thomas – $23k) / Carolina – see above
2. Nashville (Rinne – $26k) / Philadelphia – while Philly isn’t a particularly easy opponent, you can’t ignore the run that Rinne and the Preds are on right now. He’s won 9 straight games with a 1.56 GAA over that stretch. Hard to bet against that right now.
3. Chicago (Crawford – $14k) / Edmonton – one of the top teams in the league against a struggling Edmonton squad with little protection on defense
4. New Jersey (Brodeur – $12k) / Montreal – Favorable, based on trends
5. San Jose (Niemi – $19.5k) / Dallas – Another favorable matchup. Niemi and the Sharks are coming off a big shutout win.

BUDGET YOUR SELECTION

The final step is the hardest. Now that you have a handful of solid options from which to choose, you need to now weigh your selection against the cap hit for each player. I’m not inclined to spend a full quarter of my cap on one position, so I’ll shy away from Rinne, and most likely Thomas. Too bad, because they’re both likely to earn some points tonight. That leaves me with three decent choices. I really like Niemi coming off that shutout, and his salary is fair. It’s tough to ignore the value that Crawford, and especially Brodeur, offer tonight. Depending on how the rest of my roster shapes up, I may move these guys in and out. Since I tend to play a few rosters each night, I’ll most likely insert each of them at some point. For my first roster, I’ll pencil in Crawford, as he offers a great price and a great mathup tonight.

Final answer (for now): Corey Crawford vs. Edmonton @ $14k.

Fortunately, if I see later today that Emery is getting the nod, I won’t need to juggle my lineup too much, as he is also value-priced at $15k.

My Roster For Tonight

Now that you know who’s in net, here’s how the rest of my roster is shaping up. I’m piling up on Bruins, Hawks and Lightning, based on favorable matchups.