NLCS Game 2 Preview: Dodgers vs. Braves Odds & Prediction
Dodgers vs. Braves Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -172 |
| Braves Odds | +160 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 17 |
| Time | 7:38 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
On Sunday evening, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves will battle in the National League Championship Series at Truist Park. Atlanta took care of business yesterday, securing a 3-2 victory in the series opener. In Game 2, the Dodgers will send Max Scherzer to the hill. He will be opposed by Ian Anderson. Oddsmakers are expecting the Dodgers to even-up the series, pricing Los Angeles as -172 road favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 2 of the NLCS.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-172)
After being acquired by the Dodgers at the trade deadline, Scherzer was nearly unhittable down the stretch of the regular season with a 1.98 ERA and a 1.95 FIP. In that span, he struck-out 33.6 percent of opposing hitters against a miniscule 3.0 percent walk-rate. On top of a sensational 0.82 WHIP, Scherzer allowed an incomprehensibly-low 3.0 percent barrel-rate over the final two months of the campaign. On the year, he ranked in the 71st percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, strikeout and walk percentage, and whiff-rate. In three postseason appearances this October, Scherzer has posted a 1.46 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 12 innings. Bettors should expect dominance from Scherzer on Sunday.
The Los Angeles lineup features big names such as Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Will Smith, A.J. Pollock, and Cody Bellinger. However, this group underperformed expectations by a wide margin this summer and were only slightly better than mediocre at the plate for the majority of the campaign. This inconsistency has carried over into the postseason. In seven playoff games, Los Angeles has been shutout twice, scored three runs or less five times, but also has two games with seven or more runs. Still, the Dodgers ranked seventh in OPS, eighth in ISO, second in walk rate, and 11th in strikeout percentage during the regular season against right-handed pitching. They are capable of doing damage this evening against Anderson.
After a grueling opening round against the Giants in the division series, the Dodgers bullpen is less rested than they would like for it to be as they prepare for Game 2 of the NLCS. A bullpen game to start the series against Atlanta did not help matters, as the Dodgers used eight relievers yesterday. Yet, only Tony Gonsolin tossed more than 16 pitches, so Manager Dave Roberts should have everyone available in this relief unit tonight. If Scherzer is able to get deep into the ballgame, Roberts may only need one or two relief arms to seal the deal on a win.
Atlanta Braves (+160)
Anderson was sensational as a rookie during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. However, he regressed significantly as a sophomore—posting a 3.58 ERA, 4.30 xERA, and a 4.12 FIP in 24 starts in 2021. He ranked below league average in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout and walk percentage, and chase rate. Yet, Anderson was at his best when he was pitching at home, delivering a 3.66 FIP anda 1.13 WHIP across 61.1 innings of work. After returning from a late-season injury, Anderson had a 3.62 ERA and a 5.67 FIP in his final six trips to the mound in the regular season. He held the Milwaukee Brewers scoreless over five innings in his only start of the division series, but will have a much tougher time keeping Los Angeles off of the scoreboard on Sunday.
Against right-handed pitching this year, Atlanta ranked sixth in OPS, fourth in ISO, 13th in walk rate, and 23rd in strikeout percentage. Yet, their high strikeout numbers make this offense overly-reliant on hitting home runs to produce runs. This is especially true in matchups against pitchers, such as Scherzer, who generate a lot of swings-and-misses. The Braves have no shortage of talent in this lineup, but they are going to need to hit the ball out of the ballpark if they want to stay competitive in this one. The Braves are unlikely to establish many, if any, rallies against Scherzer in Game 2.
Manager Brian Snitker does not trust many arms in his relief corps, evident by his extreme reliance on Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, and Will Smith in the division series. Unsurprisingly, Snitker used Matzek, Jackson, and Smith in the late innings yesterday in relief of Max Fried. As this series goes on, the lack of reliable options in Atlanta’s relief unit is going to become a problem.
Game 2 Pick
The Dodgers have the better starting pitcher, the better offense, and the better bullpen in this matchup. Scherzer is somewhat of a risk due to his unusual rest pattern after earning a save in Game 5 of the NLDS against the Giants. However, even if Scherzer is not at his best, Los Angeles has the offensive firepower to emerge victorious tonight. The price is a little heavy for most bettors, but the Dodgers on the money line is the smart play in Game 2.
PICK: Dodgers ML (-172)
Image Credit: Imagn