2021 Northern Trust Odds & PGA Golf Betting Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2021-08-31 12:14:49

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting picks for the opening round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the 2021 Northern Trust. Here’s a closer look at golf odds across online sportsbooks.

Oh, Russell Henley. You, Georgia Bulldog, you… With the FedEx Cup Playoffs upon us, your humble narrator finds himself with a Wyndham hangover — and not because I enjoyed the tournament. Russell Henley led for three rounds and failed us on Sunday — needing only to score -2 on the weekend to secure a victory.

Right. The 2021 Northern Trust. The FedEx Cup is abound and kicks off this week at Liberty National Golf Club in my home state, NJ. 124 players will tee it up hoping to secure enough points to move on to the BMW Championship next week while winning some coin in the process. Can we rebound after a heart-wrenching Henley loss this week? Let’s break down the opening round of this year’s playoffs at the 2021 Northern Trust.

Northern Trust Golf Odds

At the time of this writing — evening of August 17th — BetMGM lists the following outright odds.

Louis Oosthuizen withdrew from the field this week due to his lingering neck injury — cutting the field down to 124. Oosty — 8th in FedEx Cup points — should still get through to the the BMW Championship given his packed schedule and success this season. Jon Rahm returns to the tour as an unsurprising favorite with Jordan Spieth and Collin Morikawa just behind the U.S. Open Champion.

The Northern Trust does feature a 36-hole cut to the top 70 players with ties. After the dust settles, the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings will move on to the BMW Championship and vie for the one of the 30 spots at the Tour Championship.

The field is absolutely loaded — featuring the best players in the world. Often, the playoffs feature superstar-level talent winning tournaments. As for tournaments at Liberty National, two players in this week’s field have won at the course — Patrick Reed in 2019 and Adam Scott in 2013. Let’s talk about Liberty National Golf Club.

Northern Trust Betting Preview

• Course: Liberty National Golf Club
• Date: August 19 -22
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,387
• Greens: Bentgrass

Not to perpetuate stereotypes about New Jersey, but Liberty National Golf Club was built on a toxic wasteland. No, literally, a toxic wasteland that used to be a World War I ammunition dump is the site of this week’s tournament. After being decontaminated and constructed, Liberty Park offers views of the Statue of Liberty on 15 holes. With plenty of sand, water hazards, and very, very tiny greens, Liberty National will test players precision with irons and skills around the green.

As per usual, SG: Approach is wildly important but SG: ARG (around the green) must be considered this week. Putting gets a slight downgrade given the relatively small size of the greens. The five most bogeyed holes by percentage are Par 4s between 450-500 yards… (duh). Further, the fairways at Liberty National are expansive but missing them will result in an extremely challenging scramble. A balanced test for golfers, the top players in SG: T2G will excel this week.

So, without further ado, here are a few players that will make my betting card this week.

Northern Trust Betting Picks

Justin Thomas +2800 (PointsBet)

Leading off, Justin Thomas is the first player on my card in the Northern Trust and potentially, my DFS lineups. Recently, Thomas continues a string of “meh” performances. One of the best approach players on the PGA Tour, the putter continues to feel Thomas each week. Most recently, Thomas put together extremely strong performances tee-to-green at both the WGC and Memorial tournaments, but lost 5 and 8 strokes putting respectively.

So, why? Well, Liberty National commands precise ball striking into extremely small greens. The impact of a hot putter is mitigated by play on approach and around the green. Over his last 36 rounds, Thomas is 5th in this week’s field in Approach and 17th in SG: ARG. Putting won’t be a big issue if Thomas is able to get the ball close with irons or wedges in hand. Also, despite a strong field, my ears will always perk up when Thomas is listed longer than 25/1. Similar to his win at the Players Championship, this feels like a price that I need to jump on for Thomas.

Risking 1 unit to Win 28 units

Patrick Reed +4500 (PointsBet)

The last winner at Liberty National Golf Club, Patrick Reed fits the grinder prototype requisite for success at this venue. A magician around the greens, Reed should be able to get up-and-down throughout the week.

Speaking of grinding golf courses, Reed was extremely bust over the last month or so. After a missed cut at The Open Championship, Reed flew home to play the 3M Open only to hop on a last-minute flight to Tokyo to represent the United States at the Olympics after Bryson DeChambeau withdrew due to COVID-19. Jet lag be damned as Reed then flew home to play the WGC-St. Jude Invitational. In the field last week at the Wyndham, Reed withdrew to likely rest before a busy few weeks. Currently ranked 22nd in FedEx Cup points and probably safe for the BMW Championship, Reed will look to improve his chances to secure another Tour Championship bid.

Seemingly always undervalued, I can’t pass on a 45/1 price tag for a proven playoff performer. I will add Captain America to the card for 3/4 of a unit.

Risking .75 units to Win 33.75 units

Sam Burns +6600 (BetMGM)

Did you know that Sam Burns is 10th in FedEx Cup points? I didn’t until about 30 minutes ago.

Burns most recently lost to Abraham Ancer at the WGC-St. Jude in a playoff after missing a birdie putt inside of Ancer’s made birdie putt. The line wasn’t enough, but the second place finish padded a very strong season from the young upstart who already claimed his first victory at Valspar. Ranked 15th in approach, Burns is developing into a well-rounded contender with a game fit for any course.

Another bright spot? Alright. Despite a 51st rank in SG: ARG over his last 36 rounds, Burns gained around the green in 6 of his last 8 starts. The recent performances mitigate the concern with his relatively unexciting rankings in many of the aforementioned statistics.

Finally, the price is right. At 66/1, we add a player with proven win equity to our card with the upside to win. Burns’ stock continues to rise and a trip to East Lake seems likely for the young star. Give me Sam for a 1/2 unit.

Risking .50 units to Win 33 units

Branden Grace +10000 (bet365)

Branden Grace sunk an incredible birdie putt on the 72nd hole of the Wyndham Championship to join a six-man playoff. Immediately following the incredible putt, Russell Henley missed a putt from a few feet to join the same… Why am I doing this to myself?

Anyway, Grace is in very good form ahead of the playoffs and features a very attractive price tag across most online betting sites. PointsBet and bet365 feature a 100/1 ticket price for a winner on tour this season (Puerto Rico Open). Despite a missed cut at The Open, Grace finished in the top 10 of his other previous three starts at the Wyndham, Memorial, and U.S. Open.

Ranking 4th in SG: ARG and 7th in putting, Grace ranks in the top ten (9th) in strokes gained on P4: 450-500 yards. With good form, Grace fits the profile of a golfer to make a move at Liberty National. Currently 42nd in points, Grace will surely be looking to improve his stock before teeing it up at the BMW Championship. With a 1/4 unit, Grace rounds out a 2.5 unit card.

Risking .25 units to Win 25 units

Thanks for reading. Good luck with all of your bets this week. We will be back next week to break down the BMW Championship and the 70-man field that remains standing after the dust settles this weekend.

Image Credit: Imagn