Noto and STL's Monkey Knife Fight PGA Strategy: Valspar Championship
Hey, Grinders! Welcome to our newest PGA strategy discussion for Monkey Knife Fight!
MKF has golf contests posted for the first round of the Valspar Championship, and this site offers all sorts of different games where you play against the house. Let’s get to some thoughts for this event!
STLCardinals84’s Favorite Picks
In case you haven’t noticed, Dan Back and I are currently on a roll on our Monday/Wednesday SiriusXM broadcasts. We’ve hit on FIVE consecutive MKF picks, and let’s keep that train rolling.
I really love the 2/3 “Over/Under” selection for Round 1 of this tournament.
Jon Rahm UNDER 4.5 birdies or better – Rahm has all the talent in the world, but he just seems to come unhinged in the big moments. That included quite the meltdown on the back nine on Sunday at TPC Sawgrass, including a very questionable decision on the 11th hole where the conversation between Rahm and his caddie initially got posted but then got wiped from Twitter. I question his motivation level heading into this week. This is not an easy course, and I feel comfortable with four birdies or less here.
Webb Simpson UNDER 17.5 pars or better – This one is pretty straight forward. The OVER would require Simpson to have a bogey-free round, and that’s a tough ask on this golf course. This feels like a free square. I like free squares.
Dustin Johnson UNDER 69.5 total strokes – In this day and age, there are only two golfers that I think could absolutely dominate a golf tournament if they bring their “A” game. One is Rory McIlroy, and the other is DJ. Johnson finally broke through at Sawgrass for a fifth-place finish with four straight sub-70 rounds last week, and we could be headed for a hot stretch from him as we head deeper into spring. While we haven’t seen him here at the Valspar in several years, he is still a class golfer in a relatively weak field. I’ll take my chances on him getting to two-under par or better on this par 71 layout.
I am pretty confident that we can at least hit with two of those, especially with the Simpson prop feeling like an easy win.
Notorious’ Favorite Picks
Going after the big paydays on Monkey Knife Fight are always fun, so I’ve cooked up my favorite 4/4 Over/Under or the first round:
Dustin Johnson UNDER 69.5 total strokes – We haven’t seen DJ at this event in quite some time. In fact, the last time he played it, he ended up missing the cut. However, he’s a much better golfer now than he was back then and the stats back it up. I didn’t include a single driving statistic in my model this week and he still grades out as number one in my stat model. He has gained 23 strokes tee to green over his last two events alone. Keep in mind that this is a Par 71 with four par fives. A tidy two-under round will get the job done for DJ in round one.
Webb Simpson UNDER 17.5 pars or better – I don’t care if you are the best golfer in the world, expecting a bogey-free round is a bit of a pipe dream, especially on a tree-lined course that features a lot of trouble. I mean, most golfers will be happy to avoid making a bogey in the ‘Snake Pit’ and that’s only a three-hole stretch. I love Webb this week, but will gladly bet on him making at least one bogey in the first round.
Jon Rahm UNDER 4.5 birdies or better – Rahm fell apart on Sunday at The PLAYERS Championship and got into it with his caddie on the par five when he hit his approach shot into the water rather than laying up (which his caddie recommended). I’m not exactly sure where his head is at heading into this week and it doesn’t help that he has trouble keeping his driver in his bag. This is not a course that you can overpower. While five birdies is certainly possible, I’ll take the slight under here.
Henrik Stenson UNDER 4.5 birdies or better – The Swede hasn’t been in his best of form recently, but he has flashed some life in his last two events. When in form, he’s one of the best long iron players in the world. With that said, five birdies on this course is tough to do, especially if you aren’t hitting the fairway off the tee. This pick is more about the course than it is about the player. I’m expecting tough conditions on Thursday, so I’ll take the under.
I did the picks before looking at STL’s and it looks like we agree on all three of his selections. This could be very good or very bad. Let’s hope for the former.