Noto's NFL DFS Core Plays: Week 3
Week 2 Recap
Week 2 was a lot better than Week 1. The core plays were solid and my overview of the slate was fairly on point other than neglecting to roster Derrick Henry. I only made one lineup on FanDuel and it ended up finishing 23rd in the OG Listener League. Speaking of, if you play on FanDuel each week, you should enter this $7 single-entry tournament and compete against myself, headchopper, and beermakersfan. The NFL OG landing page has this week’s contest, as well as the season-long leaderboard. FanDuel was kind enough to add $10,000 in prizes and only your top 10 scores count, so if you didn’t enter the first two weeks, you have plenty of time to make up ground.
Now, let’s get into what everyone came here for — to see my mistakes from Week 2. I essentially swapped off of the nuts on DraftKings about 10 minutes before lock. I prefer to build one main lineup a week and enter it into single-entry tournaments. Anyway, I got a little too concerned about ownership. You won’t believe how bad this swap ended I being. I took out Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase, and Noah Fant and swapped in Nick Chubb, Terrace Marshall, and Noah Fant. Most projection systems had this trio projected within five points and I was lured into the ownership discount. I knew I was destined for failure after the first Browns touchdown was a fullback dive and then I had to watch Kupp score a few minutes later.
What could have been a top 2-3% lineup in tournaments ended up falling a few points shy of the cash line. Now, I am a constant tinkerer and have many many profitable swaps in my many years of DFS. We only tend to remember the bad swaps and it will be a while before I forget this one. My mistake wasn’t to make a swap, it was to swap off what I thought was the better lineup just to get lower aggregate ownership. Anyway, I hope a lot of you had a good Week 2 and it was certainly better than Week 1 for yours truly.
Dare I say we are… trending?
Week 3 Breakdown
I appreciate you reading this each week. I am a big fan of each and every one of you. Don’t forget, my DMs on Twitter and Discord are always open. If you have a question on roster construction, contest selection, or a 2v2 that I can get wrong, feel free to reach out. I love talking to RG members throughout the week. There doesn’t appear to be an obvious roster construction, so there’s nothing we need to pivot away from in tournaments. Play the best plays, build correlation into your tournament lineups, and don’t get too cute. Sounds easy enough, right?