Noto’s NFL Positional Breakdown & Expert Plays: Divisional Round
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Slate Updates
This is where I will provide updates if we have any big injury news or if I have additional thoughts on the slate.
Divisional Round
While I didn’t have a great week of DFS, it was still a great week thanks to the Jaguars pulling off one of the biggest comebacks in NFL history. Many turned the game off or fell asleep at halftime and I honestly can’t blame them. If I wasn’t watching the game with friends, I might have done the same. From four picks in the first half to four touchdowns in the last 32 minutes, it was quite the performance from Trevor Lawrence. Even if this magical run ends this week, it was a great season to be a Jaguars fan.
We are down to the final eight teams in the NFL playoffs. The Chiefs and Eagles are coming off of a bye, while the other six teams all battled their way out of the wildcard round. Much like last week, there are plenty of slates to choose from. DraftKings decided to have the four-game slate as their main slate, while FanDuel decided to roll out two big two-game slates. You can still play the two-gamers on DraftKings or the four-gamer on FanDuel, but I’m letting you know which slates have the biggest prize pools on each site.
For the purposes of this article, I will approach it from the perspective of the four-game slate.
Quarterback
Tier 1 (Expert Plays)
Patrick Mahomes: $8,000 DraftKings / $9,200 FanDuel
It’s hard to go wrong with any of the expensive quarterbacks this week, but the matchup and game environment for Mahomes is too good for me to pass up. The Chiefs had the eighth highest pass rate during the regular season and are facing a Jaguars defense that is 30th in DVOA against the pass and 11th in DVOA against the run. In other words, we have a team that wants to throw the ball that is facing a team that is much better equipped to stop the run than the pass. Even if the Chiefs get out to an early lead, they aren’t going to take their foot off the gas like the Chargers did in the wildcard round. Mahomes has plenty of playoff experience, he offers rushing upside, and the Chiefs have the highest team total of the slate.
Tier 2
Jalen Hurts: $7,600 DraftKings / $9,000 FanDuel
We haven’t seen a lot of Hurts recently because he was injured in Week 15. He ended up playing in the season finale against the Giants, but that was a strange game all around. New York rested starters and the Eagles didn’t play with much urgency. In the four games before getting injured, Hurts rattled off 40, 30, 37, and 33 fantasy points (DK scoring). He was officially taken off the injury report this week, which bodes well for his rushing upside. The Eagles should have plenty of success on the ground, as the Giants are dead last in DVOA against the run and have allowed the 10th most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season.