Noto’s NFL Positional Breakdown & Expert Plays: Week 18
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Slate Updates
This section will be updated through lineup lock. I expect to have quite a few updates in this Wild West Week 18.
Week 18
It’s hard to believe we have already reached the final week of the season. While I am excited to watch some playoff football, the season went by far too fast. Before we know it, the Super Bowl will be in the rearview mirror and we won’t have football for another seven months. While I’ve had a slightly profitable season of DFS, I sure feel like I left a lot on the field. I had some good and bad breaks along the way, but ultimately never broke through and took down a tournament. Building between one and three lineups each week does hurt my chances of winning GPPs, but I’ve found that it has been my sweet spot in NFL over the years.
As for this week, we can essentially throw target shares, snap shares, and matchups out the window. This week boils down to motivation and information. There are teams that need to win, there are teams that need to lose, there are teams that are resting starters that will still try to win, and there are teams that have nothing to play for and the absence of a first-round pick in the upcoming draft. Knowing the motivation of each team is critical to success in DFS this week. And don’t get me wrong, this doesn’t mean we should only be targeting players on teams that are in must-win mode. There are a lot of backups on dusty teams that are getting the opportunity to shine in Week 18.
My final note before we get into the positions is that this week is tough to predict ownership. Generally, we can lean on the top projection models around the industry and get an idea of which players will be popular, but Week 18 is truly a different animal. For starters, projections are all based on assumptions and each model is going to have different assumptions about who plays and how each team is going to attack their game. Due to these factors, I do not worry about ownership in Week 18. This includes cash games, small-field tournaments, and large-field tournaments.
Cheers to the end of the regular season and cheers to ending on a high note.
Quarterback
Tier 1 (Expert Plays)
Geno Smith: $6,000 DraftKings / $7,300 FanDuel
Russell Wilson: $5,400 DraftKings / $6,900 FanDuel
I’ll get to the expensive quarterbacks here in a minute, but they all have question marks. I personally prefer saving at the position and spending up elsewhere. I haven’t had a great track record with Geno this season, but the Seahawks need a win and some help to make the playoffs. They are playing at home against the Rams, who gave up 31 points to the Chargers last week. The Rams have been very beatable through the air this season and obviously don’t have Aaron Donald to put pressure on the opposing quarterback. Geno has been quiet over his last three games, but he should have his top two receiving options in a must-win game at home.
You know it’s a wild week when I have “Mr. Unlimited” aka the mile-high-stepper aka the man that bases his diet to eliminate having to go to the bathroom. Yes, Wilson is a strange dude. However, the Broncos fired Nate Hackett and the very next game, Wilson score three touchdowns and had his third best fantasy outing of the season. A matchup against the Chargers is enticing, especially since Los Angeles will have nothing to play for if the Bengals beat the Ravens in the early set of games (very likely based on the current spread). You know Wilson is going to have a big game to end the season so the critics won’t have as much to say in the offseason.