Noto/STL's Monkey Knife Fight PGA Championship Strategy

Hey, Grinders! Welcome to our latest PGA strategy discussion for Monkey Knife Fight. This week we’ve got the second major of the season, the PGA Championship, and we’re here to break down the top props.

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STLCardinals84’s Strategy

This article will give you golfers that we are high on in our props, and a few to shy away from. The key is finding value in the props — you are not forced to place money down on something you aren’t comfortable with, putting the user in control. Never forget that!

Golfer #1 To Target in Props – Dustin Johnson – I will take him head-to-head against any other golfer in Round 1 on MKF, and I’ve seen an O/U of 69.5 on some of his over/under props. He plays in the afternoon when temperatures are expected to warm a bit, and his game should translate nicely to Bethpage Black. This is a long course that requires plenty of distance off the tee, and I’ve seen some props that have him paired with the likes of Jordan Spieth or Ian Poulter. DJ should be an easy target here, and I think he can go at least a couple strokes under par.

Golfer #2 To Target in Props – Tommy Fleetwood – MKF is a nice spot to get some action on Tommy Fleetwood. He’s a steady, consistent golfer that shouldn’t be rattled by the cooler conditions on Thursday morning. He’s a solid H2H target against some of the opponents I have seen him up against, and I expect him to play a steady round. If you can get on board with the 14.5 pars or better, I really like that one. Fleetwood won’t beat himself.

Golfer To Fade in Props – Jordan Spieth – MKF has Spieth listed in a ton of props this week, from 4.5 birdies or better in some of the over/under props to head-to-head matches against elite players in this field. Spieth is a public figure and a well-known name, but the fact of the matter is that his game has been in worse shape than a lot of the restaurants Gordon Ramsay visited on the “Kitchen Nightmares” series. Spieth doesn’t have a single top 20 finish so far this calendar year, and his last top eight finish dates back more than a year now. He might regain his form some day, but this long, demanding course isn’t the spot to bank on it.

Notorious’ Strategy

MKF prop bets are always fun, especially if you can predict the scoring conditions of the tournament. Based on all of the player interviews, we are expecting a U.S. Open type of setup this week for the PGA Championship. We can use the challenging conditions to our advantage with these prop bets. As STL mentioned above, they constantly change the pairings, so we are going to focus on players that we like and dislike based on some of the props that are out there.

(Props May No Longer Be Available)

Target Dustin Johnson – The total stroke prop that I continue to see is over/under 69.5 strokes. He’s my pick to win this tournament for a number of reasons. He rates out number one in my model in short-term, long-term form, and putting on poa annua greens. He’s also incredibly long off the tee and he might be the best U.S. Open type of golfer in the world. I’ll take the under on the 69.5 strokes for Thursday’s round, but I’m more interested in any of the head-to-head props out there. He’s currently matched up against Ian Poulter, so hammer that prop as much as possible.

Fade Jordan Spieth – We all love Jason Rouslin (the third cohost of Drive for Show, DFS for Dough), but we don’t have to follow him by blindly playing Spieth every week. He’s been in terrible form for over a year and now arrives at a course that requires length and accuracy off the tee. This rough is extremely penal and Spieth is one of the worst in the field off the tee. I have a hard time seeing him making more than 4.5 birdies or more than 14.5 pars or better. I will take the under on both props and will take any elite golfer that he’s paired up against head-to-head.

Fade Kevin Kisner – While he was joking, I heard an interview where Kisner said he was already planning to fly out on Friday night. He knows he doesn’t have the length to compete here. His game is much more suited for courses like Colonial and Harbour Town. While he does have a great short game, he’s going to scramble for par on many of the holes. I’m seeing the same 4.5 birdies and 14.5 pars that we have for Spieth and once again, I’ll take the under for Kisner.

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

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  • whosurkuya

    Great job on the MKF props both of you. Signed up, got my bonus, followed your props suggestions and won some money. That chip in bird at 15 for DJ was money

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