Noto/STL's Monkey Knife Fight U.S. Open Strategy

Hey, Grinders! Welcome to our latest PGA strategy discussion for Monkey Knife Fight. This week we’ve got the third major of the season, the U.S. Open, and we’re here to break down the top props.

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STLCardinals84’s Strategy

This article will give you golfers that we are high on in our props, and a few to shy away from. The key is finding value in the props — you are not forced to place money down on something you aren’t comfortable with, putting the user in control. Never forget that!

General Item To Target in Props – This is a little different, but you will notice that MKF has an “over/under 70.5 total strokes” listed for a lot of golfers. I’m inclined to take the OVER almost everywhere this is listed. A golfer could shoot an even par 71 and still go over that total, and even par is a great score at a U.S. Open. The last time the U.S. Open was played here, even par was the winning score for the tournament. I expect slightly better scoring this time around, but the overall props are still giving too much benefit to lower scoring. Look for the “OVERS” here.

Golfer To Target in Props – Hideki Matsuyama – The Japanese star has been steady and consistent with his ball striking this year, and all it takes is one good putting week for him to be in the mix for a major championship. With Pebble Beach boasting small greens, that should mitigate the problem that bad putters face. Matsuyama will hit plenty of fairways, and that should help him earn a few more birdie looks than most of the golfers in the field. I’ll take him head-to-head against almost all of the other golfers that DRAFT has put him up against in the Rapid Fire matchups.

Golfer To Fade in Props – Rickie Fowler – A lot of people keep trying to make Fowler a thing in majors. He’s bound to win one soon! However, we simply have never seen him be able to put four consistent rounds together, and he seems to always fade whenever he is in the mix. While we only have to worry about one day with these MKF props, I’m just not high on Fowler right now. His 2019 statistics are slightly above average at best, and that’s not going to get it done on perhaps the most difficult setup the golfers will see all year. I’ll pass.

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Notorious’ Strategy

Golfer #1 To Target in Props – Matt Kuchar – I might be in the minority here, but I expect Thursday to have better scoring conditions than most. The weather is basically perfect (other than it being a little chilly) and I expect the USGA to tread lightly with the course. They have already said that they want to keep the greens at a decent speed and reports say you can get decent lies in the rough with a little luck. There are few better on tour at avoiding bogeys than Mr. Sketchers himself and he has three of them to work with for this prop bet. He had one blip on the radar at the Memorial, but bounced back with a top five finish at the RBC Canadian Open. He fits the mold of golfer that I’m looking for, as slow and steady just might win the race this week.

Golfer #2 To Target in Props – Hideki Matsuyama – Hideki has gained strokes on approach and around the green in each of his last 10 events on tour. Those are two of the key statistics that I’m looking for this week. I would take Matsuyama over Tiger in round one straight up, and the other pairings you will find him with are with golfers that are a step below Tiger. Matsuyama is a fine play on the MKF setup on Thursday.

Golfer To Fade in Props – Tiger Woods – I love Tiger and will be playing a ton of him in DFS this week. However, he is a notoriously slow starter. His scoring typically gets better by round when you compare it to the rest of the field. The first tee shot is always a roller coaster when it comes to the big cat and there are so many tournaments where he racks up a few bogeys on his front nine on Thursday. Wait for the weekend to deploy the Big Cat.

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