Off The Mark - EPL Daily Plays: December 8th

Forwards

High Priced Options

Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang, Arsenal, $9,300 DK, $12,500 FD – In a week like this, there are only two top six teams that are playing in advantageous matchups. For Arsenal, their matchup with Huddersfield is a great opportunity to continue their resurgence back into the top four where they can fight for a spot in the Champions League after missing out for the last couple of years. Over the last few matches, PEA has come through for this team, and between him and Lacazette, the two are options you could consider for your matches this weekend.

Anthony Martial, Manchester United, $9,000 DK, $12,000 FD – The other top six team with an easy matchup is Manchester United. United play against Fulham this weekend at home, and without a win in their last four matches, will rely on players like Martial to come through. They’ve scored 4 goals in their last two matches but failed to walk away with a W, this matchup should get them three much needed points as they currently sit in 8th place in the table. Martial was subbed off last match with an undisclosed injury, so he may not get to play in this one, but if he does start then I like his chances to come through with some fantasy production, in his last two starts he has a goal, 4 shots, 3 shots on target, and 4 chances created.

Value Options

Florin Andone, Brighton and Hove Albion, $5,300 DK, $7,500 FD – If you want to go for value, then Andone will be one of the ones that all eyes will target. He has two goals in his last two matches and has the potential to score once more as Brighton play against Burnley. Burnley have conceded 32 goals this season, and while close to half of those goals came against top six teams (14), they are still a defense that isn’t keeping goals out this season putting Andone as a solid play.

Lucas Perez, West Ham, $4,800 DK, $6,500 FD – He’s getting the start for the injured Arnautovic against Crystal Palace. Perez has potential for a multi-goal match and has two goals in his last match against Cardiff. Palace aren’t as porous as Cardiff, but Perez is priced cheaply and would allow you flexibility in your lineup builds if you roster him.

Midfielders

High Priced Options

Manchester City – This is Manchester City by committee. It’s tough to know which of their players will come through. Mahrez came up big in the midweek with a solid performance, and in this match against Chelsea he could shine through again. Sterling has been having a great season and Sane has been extra productive. Chelsea have been leaky in the back lately with multiple goals allowed against Tottenham and Wolves. Most of the City options will be expensive, and they’re all viable for tournaments. For cash options I’d consider Mahrez or Sterling.

Robert Snodgrass, West Ham, $7,200 DK, $8,000 FD – Going the cheap route will get you Snodgrass as a solid play in the midfield. West Ham is once again a target here as they go against Palace at home. While Palace hasn’t been a pushover defensive team, the West Ham options are cheaper than their projected output, and with some injuries on the team, I expect some players to step up a bit.

Value Options

Wilfried Zaha, Crystal Palace, $6,500 DK, 9,500 FD – Zaha is extremely cheap for what he can provide. Even if he is on the road, Zaha has been a major part of the Palace offense for the last few years. I expect that Zaha will continue to be that valuable to his team this week as Palace looks to get a win this week. Zaha didn’t get a lot of shots last match, but he did create 4 chances which could have translated to an assist or two. His price has gone down, which makes this a perfect time to pounce.

Nathan Redmond, Southampton, $5,700 DK, $7,000 FD – I don’t normally like to take Southampton players, and you’ll notice that they don’t get many shoutouts in my articles. But Redmond is in a good spot this week and without a lot of good value options in the midfield, I had to go somewhere. He had 15 crosses in his last three matches, to go with six shots and six chances created. And while he hasn’t surpassed double digits on DK in his last three matchups, his potential is there, and the matchup this week is much better than his last three (FUL, vsMUN, TOT). A matchup in Cardiff might give him a chance to score a goal for the first time this season.

Defenders

High Priced Options

Ashley Young, Manchester United, $5,600 DK, $6,000 FD – For United, there aren’t a lot of cash options in the midfield or forward positions, and with Martial potentially injured, and the team playing an almost must win against Fulham, the fullbacks should be pushing forward to get crosses in. This obviously increases the floor for players like Young and gives us exposure to the second biggest favorite on the slate (Arsenal being the first)

Cedric Soares, Southampton, $5,200 DK, $4,500 FD – It’s a Christmas miracle, I’m recommending two Southampton players in one article. It’s just that Soares has been real good so far this season. In his last four he’s had 19 crosses, and in a solid matchup he can come close to a double digit match on DK if he can deliver an assist or get a goal (as he did in two of his last four).

Value Options

James Tomkins, Crystal Palace, $3,300 DK, $5,500 FD – When it comes to value defenders, I like central defenders that go up for corners and free kicks and get a lot of chances to get on the end of a set piece. Tomkins has seven chances from corners through headers, with five of them coming in the last four matches. In this week’s matchup with West Ham, he’ll have some opportunities to get up on those crosses. But since he’s on the road, he’ll also draw some defensive stats including clearances, interceptions, and maybe some tackles. For his price at $3.3K on DK you can easily afford the risk.

Callum Chambers, Fulham, $3,300 DK, $5,500 FD – Another player to go after with some little risk is Chambers, who also has potential to come through big. Chambers fills up the stat sheet with interceptions, tackles, and even shots. This matchup with United means that they are vulnerable. The former Arsenal defender has been playing a more advanced role in his last couple of matches, which shows in his heat map. Again, his price tag is very cheap and while he’s not going to come through with a goal or assist, he’s still going to get some fantasy value close to 3x which is great for his price.

Goalkeepers

Kepa Arrizabalaga, Chelsea, $4,200 DK, $5,500 FD – The ultimate GPP and high risk/high reward play in DFS is taking a goalkeeper against Manchester City. Kepa isn’t a normal keeper though. He’s a solid player with a team that has solid ambitions to stop City from scoring. I don’t think he comes away with a clean sheet, but I can see that he is going to face a lot of shots, and he’s talented enough to get saves on plenty of these shots. Of course, this is a risky proposition, but he’s at home which means that Chelsea are in the best possible position to play City this season.

Lucasz Fabianski, West Ham, $5,000 DK, $5,000 FD – If you’re not a fan of high risk with your goalkeeper, then Fabianski is the choice. Palace doesn’t score much, as they have just 11 goals in 15 matches, averaging less than a goal a game. Fabianski is a solid keeper and playing at home and not extremely expensive, I can see him keeping a clean sheet with a couple of saves and maybe even the win.

About the Author

  • Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza)

  • At the intersection of sports and mathematics you’ll find Hesh Hambazaza as a staunch believer that numbers really can explain everything. Along with working as a RotoGrinders editor, Hambazaza contributes to RotoGrinders in Soccer coverage as well as a contributor to RotoAcademy highlighting Vegas as a useful tool. When he’s not devoting countless hours to DFS a week, Hambazaza can be found working as a father, husband and electrical engineer on various NASA projects.

Comments

  • Volkster6

    Ham I love your article and read it frequently… that said I wonder if you changed it a bit or perhaps added to it for us Premium users?

    For example often the top players (Red Coat, Pew Pew Pew, Feattheturtle, and Saramek – - to name a few) game stack more often than not and find major success.

    Is there a key stat (besides goals and assists) that we can focus our research on when it comes to game stacking? Do you have an opinion on game stacking? My research lately has pointed it more towards a QB/WR correlation type thing with M/F and I’m curious to have your thoughts on it.

    Thanks again and keep up the great work! Adone and Perez were great calls but never materialized. Both were relatively low owned. And you needed Young to min cash today for sure!

    Thanks

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