Off The Mark - EPL Daily Plays: November 3rd
Welcome to another week of EPL contests. Off the Mark will break down the top plays to consider for contests on DraftKings and FanDuel with a focus on high floor players (cash game plays) and high ceiling players (tournament plays) and a focused look at goalies. This week’s contests have just five matches on Saturday that are part of the main contest on DK, this means that DK decided not to include the extra-late contest between Wolves and Tottenham in their big slate instead opting to put them on their own individual showdown contest. FanDuel on the other hand included the matchup in their main slate. Either way, the matches that we have at our disposal are some fun ones with two top six sides, but they are facing each other with Liverpool visiting Arsenal in the late contest. So let’s have a look at our top cash plays
Cash Plays
Jose Holebas, Watford, Defender, $6,400 DK, $5,500 FD – one of the premier cash plays this season is Holebas, and he still leads the league in crosses despite missing matches all month, he hasn’t played for Watford since October 6th. He’s bound to record double digit crosses and get several chances created and a high likelihood of an assist or more. He’s easily one of the top cash options on both sites, and one of the more consistent producers when he does start.
Gylfi Sigurdsson, Everton, Midfield/Forward, $9,600 DK, $10,000 FD – Moving upwards in price, Gylfi is one of the main facilitators for the Everton Football Club and one of the top players on the team. His abilities are maximized when the team is favored as they are in this week’s matchup against Brighton. Siggy has four goals in his last four games including a brace against Fulham. Even when he doesn’t score goals, he produces in other ways such as chances created, crosses, and shots.
Mohamed Salah, Liverpool, Midfield/Forward, $10,500 DK, $12,000 FD – The marquee matchup this weekend is the one between Liverpool and Arsenal. Salah provides the high floor and upside we look for in both tournaments and cash contests. I expect that Salah will continue his surge of goal scoring and shot taking that he has experienced in recent weeks. He was taking corners last week without Milner, but he was splitting them with Trent Alexander-Arnold. Liverpool are on the road this week, so there is some hesitation in stacking this team, but I think that Salah has a big game ahead of him this weekend.
Robbie Brady, Burnley, Midfield, $5,200 DK, $5,500 FD – He’s back! Brady was a mainstay in my articles last season until he got injured. Burnley have struggled so far this season, and part of it is adjustments the team is making on the fly, and they’ll have to make another one with Brady back. I don’t think he’ll take full responsibility for free kicks from JBG but he’s going to at least split the responsibility. At his price tag of just $5.2K I think he’s perfect for a cheap salary saver. If he ever does take full ownership of free kicks and averages close to 10 crosses a game, then expect his price to sky rocket and be up near the $8K range.
Ben Chilwell, Leicester, Defender, $5,600 DK, $5,500 FD – Another crossing full back is Chilwell. Leicester will be tough to gauge this week as the team suffered a horrific event last weekend as the owner’s helicopter crashed as it was leaving the stadium, killing all on board including the team’s owner. The news came out that the team will be flying to Thailand immediately after the game to attend the owner’s funeral. The players have spoken about being heartbroken and about this week being the toughest week of their life after the death of an owner that the players expressed admiration for. What makes Chilwell a viable option is his responsibilities on the squad. He’s a crossing full back who stands on some corners and free kicks. If the team were playing anybody but Cardiff I would have avoided them completely, but they will have a chance to focus on football on Saturday and I think the team will shine for their departed owner.
Matt Ritchie, Newcastle, Midfield, $6,400 DK, $8,000 FD – Ritchie is another crossing midfield player. He has 32 crosses in his last four matches, a streak that started against Leicester on September 29th. Ritchie and his team are at home against Watford, and the game is expected to be low scoring, but I suspect that both teams will opt for a fast paced matchup looking to exploit the opponent defense. Ritchie should shine in that scenario.
Victor Camarasa, Cardiff, Midfield, $4,900 DK, 7,500 FD – If Leicester are indeed going to be distraught this week and might suffer from a setback, then Camarasa should have his feet on the ball a whole bunch. I Expect that the Cardiff midfielder will get double digit crosses, and create some chances for his teammates throughout the evening. Moreover, his price tag is perfect for a punt play especially in a week where there are a lot of 6-8K options throughout the slate.
Gerard Deulofeu, Watford, Midfield/Forward, $5,900 DK, $8,000 FD – Deulofeu was written up a couple of weeks ago, but I was one week off as he scored a goal last weekend. The reason he wasn’t written up is because I couldn’t be sure of his role on the team, but last week he started as an attacking midfielder behind Isaac Success. In that role he had a lot of touches in the final third and was consistently part of the attack, he was rewarded with a goal in the 19th minute as Watford dispatched Huddersfield 3-0. This week I expect more of the same, some attacking and some shots, but he’s more of a tournament play than a cash play, but I can see him fitting in some cash lineups as well because of his price tag.
Tournament Plays
Sadio Mane, Liverpool, Midfield/Forward, $9,300 DK, $10,500 FD – Salah, Mane, and Firmino are the three forwards for Liverpool. Many will target Salah, but you can’ target both. The game with Arsenal should feature some goals as both teams really want to get all 3 points, and they have both shown their reluctance to park the bus in big matchups. This of course all points to Mane being a good tournament play with similar upside to Salah, but $1200 cheaper on DK, and $1500 cheaper on FanDuel. Don’t overthink it, put Mane in some tournament lineups so you don’t regret it.
Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang, Arsenal, Forward, $7,700 DK, $11,500 FD – Speaking of cheap prices, PEA is absurdly cheap for a player of his skill level at home in a potential high scoring matchup. He’s also been on fire recently with five goals in his last three matches. Of course, taking Lacazette is also an option this week as they both have potential to score, but I think many people will focus on Liverpool and ignore Arsenal. And with this being the late match, you will have to keep your eye open to make adjustments as necessary.
Marko Arnautovic, West Ham, Forward, $8,300 DK, $11,000 FD – I haven’t mentioned West Ham so far this article, but they’re in a good spot at home against a Burnley side that has allowed 10 goals in their last three matches, but two of those matches were against Manchester City and Chelsea. The team is currently third from bottom in goals conceded so that should translate for opportunities for West Ham. Unfortunately, West Ham isn’t very good at scoring goals as they are scoring goals at less than a goal a game with 9 goals in 10 matches. Does Arnautovic come through this week? Or will it be Chicharito? Or Felipe Anderson? I like Anderson for cash games a little, but his price tag is higher than I’d pay for him right now. Either way, West Ham is likely to score just a single goal or maybe even none.
Josh Murphy, Cardiff, Midfield, $7,200 DK, $6,000 FD – With Cardiff’s goal scoring odds up in this match because of the aforementioned tragedy with Leicester, Murphy comes in as a potential tournament buster. He scored goals against Fulham and Burnley and had 11 total shots in those two matches. He will fire away when given a chance, and I expect that he’ll have some chances this weekend against a Leicester defense that has allowed 11 goals in their last six games.
Jamie Vardy, Leicester, Forward, $8,500 DK, $11,000 FD – There is something to be said for Narrative Street. Vardy is for sure the kind of guy who can psych himself up for a cause, and this weekend I can see him wanting to score a goal for his owner and come through strong for his team before they take off for Thailand. The team will lean on Vardy in this one and for tournaments, I can see several top lineups leaning on him to advance to the top of the leaderboard.
Gerard Deulofeu, Watford, Midfield/Forward, $5,900 DK, $8,000 FD – Deulofeu was written up a couple of weeks ago, but I was one week off as he scored a goal last weekend. The reason he wasn’t written up is because I couldn’t be sure of his role on the team, but last week he started as an attacking midfielder behind Isaac Success. In that role he had a lot of touches in the final third and was consistently part of the attack, he was rewarded with a goal in the 19th minute as Watford dispatched Huddersfield 3-0. This week I expect more of the same, some attacking and some shots, but he’s more of a tournament play than a cash play, but I can see him fitting in some cash lineups as well because of his price tag.
Goalkeepers
Bernd Leno, Arsenal, $4,400 DK, $4,500 FD – Arsenal are at home and in a match that is expected to be face paced. It also may end up being a high scoring affair so there is risk involved. But anytime you consider that a team should take plenty of shots, the opposing goalkeeper should be in play. In this case, Leno might get close to 4-5 saves and concede 1-2 goals ending in a net positive, and if Arsenal end up with a W because of their home field advantage, then Leno gets more points from that win bonus.
Martin Dubravka, Newcastle, $4,800 DK, $5,500 FD – Another home keeper that is cheaper than $5K in Dubravka should do well. Against Watford he may not see that many shots, but he will get the advantage of being at home. If he can walk away with a win and some saves then he’s in a great spot to get 8+ points on DK and more than pay for his salary costs.