Off The Mark - EPL Daily Plays: Saturday, October 19th
We’re back from the international break, and aside from England beating Spain and Germany failing to win once again in the Nations League, nothing interesting really happened in the international break, but there are some player injury updates to consider when building your lineups for Saturday’s big EPL contests.
Speaking of the EPL contests, we have a 7 match slate on Saturday with some very interesting opportunities to take advantage of. Saturday’s slate has four heavy favorites, with three of those teams being Manchester City, Liverpool, and Tottenham, while Wolves are the fourth team on that list. The remaining three matches should offer some intriguing options as well. There will be some tough decisions for cash games, but I think tournaments will be straight forward. So, let’s get into the actual plays.
Injury Report?
First, let’s talk about the injury situation
Kevin De Bruyne, Manchester City – KDB may finally be back. Unfortunately, we have no idea if he’ll play a full 90 or come off the bench? Or start, then come off at 55 minutes? City travel to Shakhtar Donetsk on Tuesday, so presumably they won’t want to stress KDB too much in his return, so I predict a truncated run in both matches. He will likely take over set piece duties and open play crosses for City, so that hurts all other City options in cash games (unless you think they score 4+ goals, then loading up on Sterling and Aguero should be a way to go)
Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane, Liverpool – Salah came off injured late in the Egypt match against eSwatini, and he is still being monitored. He may still start, though Klopp didn’t give an indication one way or another. Mane is also being monitored, and we know even less about his situation. If neither of them go, then Shaqiri gets really interesting, especially with Milner also potentially being out. Unfortunately, this is the late game, so some gamesmanship will be key here to maximize potential while not sacrificing salary.
Ryan Fraser, Bournemouth – We care about Fraser as he’s a typical cash game target. He may be missing out for the Cherries as they go against Southampton. If he doesn’t go? Read on to find out!
Jose Holebas, Watford – Not an injury, but Holebas is out for yellow card accumulation. I’m honestly surprised it took him 8 games to get 5 yellows, I suspect that his next suspension will happen at a quicker pace.
Cash Plays
Ok, so we figured out who’s an if, and who’s a maybe. How about players we should roster?
Gerard Deulofeu, Watford, $5,500 DK, $7,000 FD – For his career Deulofeu has been a winger who is comfortable with either foot who likes to cross the ball. Last season he was in Spain where he played with Barcelona, but spent the second half of the season on loan at Vicrage road where he scored once in seven appearances. But most importantly is that he did cross the ball last season. In fact, for his career, Deulofeu has averaged over six crosses per 90 minutes. Without Holebas in this game and with Watford being favored, I expect that he’ll get double digit crosses and be a steal at his price tag.
Raheem Sterling, Manchester City, $9,800 DK, $11,500 FD – City could run riot in this one and score 4-5 matches. I expect that Sterling will play a role in those goals and could even pop himself a couple of assists. With KDB back, nobody really is safe from a floor standpoint, but with City, we know that the floor is goal scoring, and Sterling has been doing a lot of that this season with four goals in the EPL so far, and 2 with England in the Nations League, I think that Sterling can continue this run this weekend.
Sergio Aguero, Manchester City, $10,600 DK, $13,000 FD – Aguero is the league leader in shots taken, with 38 total shots taken so far this season. He also has 5 goals scored, second only to Eden Hazard. I think that Aguero will get himself a brace on Saturday, and probably finish the day with 5+ shots.
Aleksandar Mitrovic, Fulham, $6,800 DK, $9,000 FD – It’s hard to look away from Mitrovic, even if they are underdogs. The good news is that they are underdogs to Cardiff who are not a major threat to anybody. It’s rare that Cardiff are favorites, but I think that this will end up being a fairly even match, and Mitrovic has proven the ability to take shots, with 34 taken so far this season, and five goals scored, joint 2nd place in the league.
Junior Stanislas, Bournemouth, $6,600 DK, $6,500 FD – Stanislas should be taking over for Fraser if Fraser has to sit out this one. I like what Stanislas brings to this team from free kicks, and set pieces. He crosses from open play and he can also take penalties for this team (as he did against Crystal Palace off the bench earlier this month). Stanislas has the floor and ceiling upside you want in a cash play.
Matt Ritchie, Newcastle, $6,000 DK, $7,500 FD – Ritchie has been a cash play for the Toons in recent weeks with his dominance on corners. He does share some work with Shelvey, but Shelvey is more of a punt tournament option as Shelvey has as much potential to finish the game with 2 goals from 40 yards as he does to go out in 35 minutes for a red card. Ritchie has been solid recently though with 13 crosses in his last two games against Manchester United and Leicester. I expect that he’ll get 5-10 crosses again this week.
Kieran Trippier, Tottenham, $7,100 DK, $7,000 FD – Trippier is a solid full back who likes to bomb forward. It remains to be seen if he’ll continue to do that with Eriksen back from his abdominal injury. However, looking at matches prior to Eriksen’s injury, Trippier was recording double digit crosses in those as well, so it stands to reason that he’ll continue that output with Eriksen back from injury. The only hangup here is his price tag as he restricts your options elsewhere. If you want to go away from Trippier, then a look at Trent Alexander-Arnold from the late game should be on your radar (and maybe Mendy in tournaments, if he gets the start)
Victor Camarasa, Cardiff, $4,900 DK, $7,000 FD – Camarasa took over set pieces about two matches ago, and in the home contest with Burnley, he ended up with 15 crosses, including 9 corners, and took two free kicks. In a home matchup where they are favored, I suspect that Cardiff will be looking to cement their first win of the season, and that may end up relying on players like Camarasa pulling through for them. Either way, even without a goal, I suspect that Camrasa will more than pay off his salary which is very generous on both major sites.
Tournament Plays
Harry Kane, Tottenham, $10,100 DK, $12,500 FD – The Zig this week is Manchester City. Everybody is going to wonder which combination of City players to roster, and likely the majority will settle on Aguero as their mainstay. What that leaves us is the Zag, which would be Harry Kane who is getting slightly ignored. It’s that I think he’ll be under 5% owned, but his ownership level will likely be much lower than the main City targets.
Danny Ings, Southampton, $5,800 DK, $9,500 FD – Ings has been great this season for the Saints. And while Southampton haven’t been a good team, Ings is still getting his shots with three goals on 24 shots for them this season. Bournemouth have been a middle of the table team in terms of defense, so Ings shouldn’t have trouble in this one.
Mohamed Salah, Liverpool, $10,400 DK, $10,000 FD – He’s got the Q next to his name, he’s in the late game, and he hasn’t been lighting it up when it counts the most for his club this season. Despite all that, Salah is still the second highest priced player in DraftKings, but he’s down in 9th on FanDuel. He’s obviously a better option on FanDuel because of this, but he’s going to go overlooked on DraftKings. The potential of him not starting will keep some from rostering him. If he doesn’t end up starting, a pivot to Shaqiri, or Firmino (or Mane if HE starts) would be perfect. One potential game plan is going into the final match with Salah in a midfield spot, and somebody like Robertson/TAA in the utility spot, then swap out for a combo of any 2 forward players.
Felipe Anderson, West Ham, $6,400 DK, $8,000 FD – West Ham are a solid team at home who are able to control the pace. Their play has improved every week, and with their matchup this week against Tottenham, they’ll be overlooked, but that shouldn’t be the case. Anderson has been a solid attacking playmaker. He ended up with solid returns in the matchup with Manchester United a couple of weeks before the international break, and then the last match he was superb with six chances created and 12 crosses on the road to Brighton. Of course, Tottenham may limit some of his possession of the ball, but he’ll still get chances and that makes him an ideal GPP candidate.
Callum Wilson, Bournemouth, $6,900 DK, $10,500 FD – Southampton have been a terrible team this season and because of that, Bournemouth’s attack is in play. They rely on Wilson and King to score goals for them, and so far this season the pair have combined for 7 goals. King has a late fitness test, and is $200 cheaper than Wilson. I think if King misses out, most people will look elsewhere leaving Wilson as a great attacking threat for this Cherries squad. As an added bonus, Bournemouth are second in goal scoring at home this season, and Southampton have given up the league’s most big chances so far this season.
Lucas Moura, Tottenham, $6,500 DK, $9,000 FD and Riyad Mahrez, Manchester City, $8,800 DK, $8,000 FD- For tournaments, sometimes you have to go off the beaten path for a team that is heavily favored. Everybody wants shares of City and Tottenham. Everybody will look for the usual suspects. Kane and Son have done well this season for Tottenham, and with the return of Eriksen, opportunities are divided up even further. For City, KDB’s return could spell a bench role for Mahrez, or if KDB comes off the bench, then Mahrez will be overlooked in favor of Aguero and Sterling. These two are at different price tags, but they will have opportunities to score this week for teams that are vastly superior and in tournaments, they’ll give you a chance to shoot up the leaderboards.
Goalkeepers
Goalkeepers this week will depend on how much savings you can muster up in other positions. If you can find a cheap defender in your lineup such as Bertrand ($4,400 DK), you can spend up a little in GK provided you get a cheap utility player. So if you do spend up, who do you go with? The big favorites are all in play here, Alisson (Liverpool), Ederson (Man City), and to a lesser extent *Hugo Lloris (Tottenham) can all come away with a win and clean sheet. I trust the first two more than I do the third. However, for expensive keepers, my choice may end up being Rui Patricio ($5,300 DK, $5,500 FD) as he can get some saves as well, and Watford are not a bad team so they will threaten as well.
For value keepers, the best bet I believe with be Lukasz Fabianski who comes in at just $4.1K on DK and $4.5K on FD. Fabianski and West Ham have an outside chance to win against Tottenham, and as home keeper who is still an underdog, he’ll still get some chances to record saves and he’s proven in the past to be a very solid keeper capable of withstanding the pressure.