Off The Mark - EPL Daily Plays: Saturday, October 6th
Another EPL slate is upon us! This week we have just six contests, which gives us a typical contest in which there are two top six sides vying for wins. Both of them are at home. There are then four other matches with sides that are evenly matched with the small exception of Burnley hosting Huddersfield.
Because of these matchups, some prices have been inflated for this week’s contests, as players like Gudmundsson is priced as the third highest player on the slate, and for good reason. But we’ll get to him later. Outside of that, there are some good matchups and some different lineup construction strategies to consider this week. This article should set you up for success this week whether you build a cash lineup or tournament lineup. This article will be structured to go through cash options, then will consider tournament players and finally will give you the best goalkeeper options for this week.
Cash Options
Johann Berg-Gudmundsson, Midfielder/Forward, Burnley, $9,100 DK, $7,500 FD – There is something to be said for being the best crossing attacking mid on a team that is favored at home. Burnley are in a unique position of being the third biggest favorite on the slate, and that is solely due to their opponent. Huddersfield haven’t been a fantasy stats factory this season so far, as they’ve been able to limit opponents crosses, to just a single player (like Mendy when playing Manchester City). The biggest takeaway from watching Huddersfield though is that they are not good at limiting their opponents from doing what they like to do. So that means that JBG will have free reign to float around the midfield and leak to the wings and deliver crosses as he’s been apt to do. I expect that he’ll finish with double digit crosses and get close to 10 DK points without a goal or assist. Is he worth the price tag? He has a good chance to score or record an assist, so I’d say he’ll finish close to 20DK points with 3-4 chances created which makes him a cash play in FD as well.
Jose Holebas, Defender, Watford, $6,700 DK, $6,000 FD – The league leader in crosses so far this season has double digit crosses in five of his first seven matches, and I don’t think he’ll slow down anytime soon. Holebas has been crossing the heck out of the ball, and he’s playing at home this week which means the team will get more possession, and that means more crosses. 15+ crosses is not out of the question and approaching 20DK points seems like a real possibility once again.
Kieran Trippier, Defender, Tottenham, $7,400 DK, $7,000 FD – Without Eriksen, Trippier will take over a lot of the setpiece duties as he has been doing. Eriksen will miss out once again, and with Tottenham being the biggest favorite on the slate, they’ll probably utilize their full backs quite a bit. Trippier is in a great spot, but his price tag is extremely high making him a very tough sell, especially if you go with Holebas as one of your defenders.
Gylfi Sigurdsson, Midfielder/Forward, Everton, $8,900 DK, $9,500 FD – If you go away from expensive defenders you might be able to fill up on upper tier midfielders and forwards. Sigurdsson should be in consideration in that situation regardless. What sigurdsson brings to the table is crosses, attacking returns and a high floor. Everton are playing on the road against Leicester in what should be an even matchup that has some goals. A 2-2 outcome isn’t out of reach and siggy candeliver returns in that scenario.
Ben Chilwell, Defender, Leicester, $5,400 DK, $5,500 FD – what I like about Leicester is that they like to attack and go out to the wings. Chilwell provides that wing attack. He can deliver crosses and create chances. If I had to go down in defender he would be my second defensive option after one of trippier or holebas.
Marcus Rashford, Forward, Manchester United, $8,500 DK, $8,500 FD – the reports of the death of Manchester United are exaggerated. While Mourinho has been self destructing himself, United have been able to not completely suck. Of course their loss last week to West Ham wasn’t pretty but they played recently well against Valencia and Rashford was a productive part of that team. I expect that ownership on Rashford will be low on Saturday since it is a late game and he is pricey. But he was all over the place against Valencia and would be in a good spot to deliver this week against Newcastle.
James Maddison, Midfielder, Leicester, $8,500 DK, $8,500 FD – while Chilwell will deliver the crosses for Leicester, Maddison plays the Hazard role for this team and spends a lot of time looking for openings in the defense. Maddison is a solid attacking midfielder who provides a solid floor from a variety of stats. Last week Maddison finished 16.8 points off of 9 crosses, an assist, a shot, a tackle won and an interception. He also had 5 chances created, all these together give him a solid floor on both DK and FD.
Andros Townsend, Midfielder/Forward, Crystal Palace, $6,700 DK, $6,500 FD – Zaha is one of my favorite players in the Premier League, part of that is how important he is to this Crystal Palace squad in that the team is completely different when he is on there, and much better in their overall performance. However, for cash games, Townsend is probably the best bet for crosses and set pieces. What Townsend lacks however is the upside that Zaha provides. The team has struggled to score goals so far this season as they have just five goals this season and have been held scoreless in all their home games so far this season and part of the problem is the lack of a bonafide striker. Perhaps Sorloth starts and that gives the team more offensive options.
Tournament Options
Harry Kane, Forward, Tottenham, $11,100 DK, $13,000 FD – The biggest odds of a goalscorer this week are for Harry Kane. If you plat FPL you’ll have noticed that he’s been picked up by a lot of managers making him one of the most transferred in players this week. Kane does provide a solid floor of shots and will likely score a goal or two, and so if you’re in a tournament, you have two options, follow the herd or hope he fails to score in a juicy matchup with Cardiff and you end up ahead of 60% of the competition.
Paul Pogba, Midfielder, Manchester United, $7,900 DK, $9,000 FD – Most people will go for Lukaku, Rashford, or Martial (if he starts in place of Alexis) for United, but for the second biggest favorite team on the slate, Pogba provides plenty of upside as the most talented player on the squad. Pogba also lines up in the deep midfield so most people don’t roster him, but his potential is there. Biggest risk is if you do believe that United are tanking to get Mourinho fired, then Pogba is likely leading that charge, but I don’t buy into that. Pogba has had several good games where he’s attacking more and more. I think he gets a goal this week and rewards his owners.
Ryan Fraser, Midfielder, Bournemouth, $8,000 DK, $8,000 FD – Fraser created 4 chances for his teammates last weekend and sent seven crosses in. He hasn’t scored in a couple of weeks but he has two goal upside and with him being on the road against Watford he will be underowned for his potential. Fraser at home is a solid cash option, but in this case, he’s on the road and while he could be used as a cash play, he is likely a tournament only option. His price is reasonable enough that most will venture away from him and look elsewhere, which is ideal for tournaments.
Raul Jimenez, Forward, Wolverhampton, $7,300 DK, $9,500 FD – Wolves are in 9th place in the league, but suffer from a lack of goal scoring having scored just 8 goals so far this season. Jimenez has come close several times and has potential every week. He has the fifth most shots on the season at 22, with 10 of them being on target. Being on the road against Palace, there is concern that the match will be a low scoring game, but both these teams are capable of scoring goals, they just have not delivered so far. Maybe this week is where we see returns.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Forward, $4,600 DK, $7,500 FD – Everton are away this week which puts them as not as likely to score goals this week, but for his price on DK, Calvert-Lewin should be in serious consideration. Rostering him should allow for a studs/scrubs lineup without sacrificing potential too much. DCL does get subbed off around 60 minutes so if he doesn’t get a goal then he loses out on points and has a floor of 2-3 points.
Erik Lamela, Midfielder/Forward, $7,200 DK, $7,500 FD – Getting exposure to Tottenham might be key to this slate as they could end up with 3-5 goals Saturday, and Lamela may be the player to allow for more than Kane exposure. Lamela is a capable goal scorer and a solid attacking player. Don’t expect a floor of higher than 5 points, but a ceiling of 20 points is in play.
Goalkeepers
Wayne Hennessey, Crystal Palace, $4,800 DK, $5,500 FD – With lots of even matchups, it’s tough to pick a goalkeeper as most matches could go either way. In this case, Palace and Wolves are two teams that don’t score a lot of goals, and while that may change this week, this is the game with the lowest total, and with Hennessey being the underdog and at home, he’s my choice for goalkeeper if I’m not spending top dollar.
Hugo Lloris, Tottenham, $6,000 DK, $4,000 FD – If you’re going to spend top dollar, then Lloris is your pick. A clean sheet and win bonus seem inevitable, and Lloris has a chance at coming away with 10 guaranteed points. Risk is there however as you can’t recover from a goal conceded through saves. But if you’re spending up, this is the play to go with.