Off The Mark - EPL Daily Plays: Saturday, September 29th
We have another week of Premier League contests this week with some fantastic games on Saturday with five of the top six in play, 2 of them at home, 1 of them on the road and 2 more playing each other. Moreover, there are two other matches with big favorites and one matchup that is more of a pickem.
This week the focus should be on trying to fit as many Manchester City, Tottenham and Arsenal players on your teams as these three are big favorites. We should also have some value available from teams such as Everton and Wolverhampton. The Chelsea-Liverpool match should be an intriguing one as well with the teams playing for a second time in a week after a thrilling 2-1 Chelsea victory in the EFL cup in midweek.
This week’s builds will be tough to do as there will surely be goals, so picking the right cash plays will be difficult as there are multiple key players that are capable of multiple goals in advantageous circumstances and if the games go as the oddsmakers believe they will, then we can expect a very high scoring day where your success will rely heavily on choosing the correct goal scorer. For this reason, this article will be difficult to get right as the chance of lots of goals being scored is high, but the chances at picking the correct goal scorer are low.
This article will highlight the best cash options to pick from, following that, I will provide the best tournament selections as well as a couple of goalkeepers to consider in your matches.
Cash Plays
Joao Moutinho, Wolverhampton, Midfield, $6,300 DK, $8,000 FD – Wolverhampton play against Southampton this week in what should be a game where the Wolves control the flow of play and get a run where they get several opportunities and chances. The biggest chance creator for the Wolves is Joao Moutinho who leads the team in crosses with 36 on the season. He also scored a game last match against Manchester United and had an assist earlier in the season against Manchester City. Look for Moutinho to get some crosses and finish close to double digit scoring in just floor points. I would also consider some Wolves players for tournaments, but nobody stands out to be called out specifically, but you can take any of the front four to fit into your lineup.
Gylfi Sigurdsson, Everton, Midfield, $7,800 DK, $9,000 FD – With a semi-monopoly on set pieces, and with Everton being a big favorite this weekend in their matchup at home versus Fulham, I expect that Sigurdsson will have plenty of opportunities to whip in crosses from free kicks or from corners. If you decide to go elsewhere for Everton, then Lucas Digne has been getting his fair share of these plays and that has been giving him a strong floor as well, but Sigurdsson has a higher ceiling as he has the higher potential to score goals.
Leroy Sane, Manchester City, Midfield/Forward, $8,700 DK, $8,000 FD – If Benjamin Mendy doesn’t get a start Saturday, then Sane should have the priority for set pieces and will end up with a good amount of crosses off of corners and open play. Sane did also score a goal last time out, and with City being a huge favorite against Brighton at home, I expect that Sane has plenty of opportunities to deliver for his owners, he’s not the cheapest option for City’s attack, but he’s going to be the highest floor player. Sterling, Bruno Silva, David Silva, and Gundogan all are cheaper and provide similar upside, but lower floor levels which makes Sane perfectly suited for cash and the others are more for tournaments.
Ben Chilwell, Leicester City, Defender, $4,700 DK, $5,500 FD – Chilwell gets a high cross number for Leicester on a regular basis, this match is unique this week in that Leicester are actually an underdog, but their opponent isn’t that big of a favorite as Newcastle are just favored at home. This match is practically a pickem with home field advantage being the decider. This does mean that Chilwell will get his opportunities, and he’s the cheapest high floor cash play on the slate. The risk is that Leicester are in fact on the road and Newcastle are a better team at home than they are normally given credit for.
Jose Holebas, Watford, Defender, $5,300 DK, $6,500 FD – Holebas is another player who takes all the set pieces for his team, and Watford are consistently one of the teams that gets a lot of cross opportunities through set pieces or open play. Holebas does have double digit crosses in 3 of his last four matches and four of his first six matches for the season. For this match, Watford are underdogs to Arsenal on the road, so while I don’t expect him to get 15+ DK points (unless he scores), he does have potential again for double digit crosses. The other side of this match, Arsenal’s game plan is predicated on passing the ball through the middle and penetrating through quick passes this limits the high floor options on DraftKings and therefore, even though Arsenal are the favorites, I can’t recommend any of their players as a solid cash option given their current play style.
Kieran Trippier, Tottenham, Defender, $6,600 DK, $6,500 FD – With Christian Eriksen out this week, Trippier will be getting the bulk of the service and will get the priority on crosses and high floor options this week. Tottenham are playing on the road to Huddersfield, but the Spurs should get the majority of the possession and if Trippier gets the start then he will reap the benefits of the weak opponent. Son and possibly Danny Rose may eat into that floor, but I believe that Trippier will be the obvious cash play in this game.
Willian, Chelsea, Midfielder, $8,000 DK, $9,500 FD – For the late game, it’s hard to predict how a matchup between two strong teams will play out. Lucky for us, these two just played as Chelsea beat Liverpool on the road on Wednesday. Unlucky for us, there was some squad rotation, but the lessons learned is that Chelsea still played a high possession game even without Jorginho, that resulted in Fabregas getting a lot of touches, and with Willian being a high crossing winger. Without Pedro this week, Willian will probably get the start once more, if Pedro does indeed start, then Willian might go to the bench, though Pedro may still miss one more week before he is fully healthy. If we’re being honest though, Chelsea right now is turning into Hazard’s team and he’s been rampaging through opponents and scoring goals left and right. His floor is not very high as he doesn’t cross very much, but he’s a guarantee to be aggressive in looking for his shot which does give him a decent floor.
Tournament Plays
Harry Kane, Tottenham, Forward, $9,900 DK, $12,000 FD – Without Eriksen, there will be concern over whether Kane will get the opportunities that would give him a chance at goal scoring. Kane should still get service with Son on the wing and Lucas Moura probably moving back to an attacking midfield position instead of a spot as a second striker. Moura moving back should allow Kane more room to move and increase his opportunities and chances to score goals this weekend.
Sergio Aguero, Manchester City, Forward, $10,300 DK, $12,500 FD – Aguero might be the highest owned superstar as he’s had a goal or assist in his last three matches and this week against Brighton, he should have plenty of opportunities. The risk with Aguero is that there are many other options on his team that limit his opportunities as well as the fact that he can get subbed off for Jesus at 60 minutes.
P. E. Aubameyang, Arsenal, Forward, $8,400 DK, $11,000 FD – For salary savings and still targeting a big favorite, PEA is a good choice. Arsenal are at home against Watford, and between Aubameyang and Lacazette, Arsenal have two solid attacking players that can score multiple goals. Aubameyang is my pick this week as he’s been appearing to be more active in recent weeks, despite both players delivering results, I think this week PEA gets a goal or two to put Arsenal in the winning column once again.
Roberto Firmino, Liverpool, Forward, $7,100 DK, $11,000 FD – Klopp is likely to field his #1 lineup this week after resting a few players on Wednesday against Chelsea. Three points here are vital for the Reds if they wish to challenge for the title. A win at Stamford Bridge will go a long way towards that. Firmino is the cheapest of the three Liverpool forwards. Salah has been looking bleak lately, and while he scored last week, and could have had another, there is still something off this season. Mane has been playing well, but only scored 3.5 DK points last weekend, and against Chelsea didn’t really perform well. Sturridge gave Chelsea some trouble, and he likely won’t start this one but will make way for Firmino who should get a lot of service from Liverpool’s front line. Firmino is also very cheap for his potential which allows you to build a lineup with more variety and potential.
Joselu, Newcastle, Forward, $5,600 DK, $7,500 FD – Joselu makes for an interesting selection for Newcastle. The Magpies are at home and should get some opportunities. Joselu is cheap on both FD and DK and should get 2-3 good chances on goal Saturday. Newcastle are yet to win at home, but their first three matches came against Chelsea, Tottenham, and Arsenal. This will be their first winnable match at home, and if they hope to stay in the EPL next season, then they need all three points. Their starting striker should reap the benefits of that determination, and Joselu, I expect, will get the start.
Eden Hazard, Chelsea, Midfielder/Forward, $9,100 DK, $11,500 FD – Google ‘Hazard goal vs Liverpool EFL cup’, watch the YouTube video, then come back and put Hazard in your tournament lineup. The Belgian is possessed this season and he is obsessed with scoring goals. He’s taking more shots, and converting at a higher rate. It’s as if the increased role in the Belgium squad over the summer opened his eyes to how good he can be if he takes his chances and tries to score goals rather than lay the ball to a teammate. Hazard will continue his attacking mentality and Chelsea fans will reap the rewards. I think if you roster him in your lineups, you will also benefit.
Goalkeepers
Kepa Arrizabalaga, Chelsea, GK, $4,700 DK, $5,500 FD – Kepa is very cheap on DK for his potential in this game. He’s playing at home against a team that likes to shoot the ball. Chelsea should have the possession advantage this week, but that doesn’t mean that Salah and company won’t get some shots off. There is a small likelihood that this match ends in a clean sheet for him, but with a win and 2-3 saves he can approach double digits and at $4.7K on DK, that should be good enough at 2x.
Jordan Pickford, Everton, GK, $5,200 DK, $5,0000 FD – Pickford is an excellent goalkeeper who is playing at home against Fulham. They are big favorites to win, but his price tag isn’t as high as those of Arsenal, City and Tottenham’s keepers. I expect he’s a good bet for a win and a clean sheet and maybe even a save or two. On the flip side, if you don’t take him, Mitrovic might be in a good position to differentiate from the crowd and he’d be a sneaky play.