Packers vs. Lions Same Game Parlay Picks for Today

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-12-05 21:20:54

Detroit running back Gibbs

When was the last time a Thursday Night Football game felt more meaningful than the NFL’s offering this week? The Green Bay Packers (9-3) travel to Detroit to battle the NFC-leading Lions (11-1). The Lions continue to steamroll the competition, but a loss would be detrimental to their Super Bowl hopes. With the Eagles only 1 game behind, a loss to Green Bay puts Philadelphia in the driver’s seat if they beat the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Packers would pull closer to a potential division crown if they could beat the Lions on the road. The ramifications are plentiful on Thursday night.

Check out our Same Game Parlay Guide before we break down tonight’s game and build a same game parlay for Thursday night.

Packers vs. Lions Same Game Parlay Preview

Thursday night has the makings of a shootout with two of the best offenses in the NFL meeting in a dome. DraftKings Sportsbook posts the game total at 51.5 points with the Lions as 3-point home favorites. Per ScoresAndOdds, an abundance of betting action is on the over, and most of the betting action favors the Detroit side of the spread. A host of Lions injuries made the initial spread dip precipitously, but a correction has held the line at a field goal.

The Lions will miss Taylor Decker for the third consecutive week. Potentially taking a conservative approach, Detroit might want their stalwart left tackle healthy for the playoff run. The more alarming concern for the Lions is the rash of injuries on the defensive side of the football after their Week 13 battle with the Bears. Three defensive linemen — Josh Paschal, Levi Onwuzurike, and DJ Reader — will not play against the Packers. In response, the Lions signed Jonah Williams and Kwon Alexander to help plug gaping hole on the defensive side of the football. The Green Bay offense must take advantage of the bad fortune for the Lions’ defense.

The Packers do have their own injury problems. Jaire Alexander and LB Edgerrin Cooper will not play. The Lions’ explosive offense is likely to continue scoring points against a weakened defense. Romeo Doubs will miss another game with his concussion. Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks should be afforded a few more opportunities without Doubs involved in the passing offense. On a positive note, Josh Jacobs will suit up despite nagging injuries.

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The offenses are stellar. Normally, dome games feature higher totals, with the public loving to bet the over. With this matchup, I am not sure we can blame them. The offensive rankings for both teams are superlative. Here are a few facts about these offenses:

The Lions rank 1st in points per game (31.9). The Packers rank 8th (26.5).

The Packers rank 2nd in offensive yards per play. The Lions are tied for 3rd.

Detroit is tied for 1st in yards per pass attempt (8.7). Green Bay ranks 3rd (8.4).

The offenses are tied for 7th in yards per rush attempt. Detroit and Green Bay are 4th and 5th, respectively, in rushing yards per game.

In short, the offenses are explosive and very talented. The Packers have not beaten many great teams this season, with losses to the Eagles, Lions, and Vikings. Meanwhile, the Lions continue to streamroll their competition and, more notably, blow out the bad teams. The bad 2nd half against Chicago might have something to do with this betting spread being stuck at a field goal. When the teams met in Green Bay earlier this season, the Packers won 24-14 despite having a 24-6 lead with two minutes left.

Can the defenses hold up? The Packers’ strength on defense is their rush defense. They have allowed a measly 4.2 yards per rush attempt. Detroit’s strength is their passing defense, but this ranking might be less useful given the injuries on the Detroit side of the football. With so many concerns on the line, the Packers might opt to run the football with Jacobs.

However, the Lions have allowed the most receptions to wide receivers up to this point in this season (306 targets for 183 receptions). A big portion of that could be teams having to throw from behind throughout the season. However, the Lions have always tried to shut down the run at the expense of their passing defense. Green Bay should attack through their trio of receivers and solid tight end.

The Packers don’t allow much on the ground, but I am not so sure that matters against Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Gibbs appeared to be in hot water with a social media post that exposed code names for Lions’ offensive plays. That seems to have been handled internally, and Gibbs and Montgomery will likely be the focal point of the offense tonight. Both running backs have double-digit rushing touchdowns, with Gibbs being the more explosive of the two (6 yards per rush). The Packers do allow offense to flow through the running backs via receptions. Green Bay has allowed 59 catches for 503 yards through 12 games.

Gibbs is poised for a big game. The Packers’ passing attack is in line for a big game. Who won’t explode offensively on Thursday night? Let’s look through the DraftKings menu and build our same game parlay for Thursday Night Football.

Same Game Parlay Picks for Packers vs. Lions

Jahmyr Gibbs 60+ Rushing Yards
Jayden Reed 60+ Receiving Yards
Sam LaPorta Over 38.5 Receiving Yards

Jahmyr Gibbs 60+ Rushing Yards

Gibbs is the most dynamic player on the Lions’ offense. While Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to prove he is one of the top wide receivers in the NFL, Gibbs is always a threat to take one to the house. His per-carry average on the ground is phenomenal. On Thanksgiving, Gibbs’ streak of 11 straight games with a rush of 15 or more yards was broken. We shouldn’t be surprised if he breaks off a 20-yard run tonight.

The Lions might be un-phased by the Packers’ prowess against the run and continue to feed their dynamic duo. The Lions feature so many weapons on offense that it seems like somebody is always open or there is always an open lane somewhere in the defense. Defenses struggle to keep everything under wraps.

I think Gibbs gets here with no issue and don’t mind potentially laddering Gibbs in an indoor environment. He has exceeded 80 yards in 6 of his 12 games.

Jayden Reed 60+ Receiving Yards

We already alluded to the Lions’ high volume of receptions allowed to the wide receiver position. While his work is stagnant, Reed should see enough targets to take advantage of some holes in the secondary.

As mentioned previously, the Lions seem to sell out to stop the run and are content to allow receiving yards before tightening up in the scoring area. Jordan Love has three receivers to attack with, yet the volume is more consistent for Reed than Watson and Wicks.

Like Gibbs, Reed is a threat for a long reception on every passing play and could exceed this number with 1 catch. With 3-4 catches, I think Reed locks in our second leg.

Sam LaPorta Over 38.5 Receiving Yards

Finally, we get a bit risky with our final leg. LaPorta never has a consistent workload at the tight end position. However, he has 6 targets in 3 consecutive games. He brought in 3 catches in each of those games, with only 1 game above 60 yards.

The Packers, though, have allowed plenty of receptions and yardage to the tight end position. The Green Bay defense is tied for the 5th-highest reception total to tight ends, for a whopping 758 yards.

If LaPorta was ever going to shake free for a big catch, Green Bay might be just the defense. His prop gets us to a solid price with a bit more risk. Let’s hope LaPorta is featured in the offense early in tonight’s game.