NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Packers-Raiders DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Raiders vs. Packers on Monday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
The 1-3 Raiders play host to the 2-2 Packers tonight, with Davante Adams facing his former team for the first time. Adams is officially questionable for this game with a shoulder injury, but I honestly can’t see him sitting this one out, as it’s basically a must-win game for Vegas for any hope of the playoffs. And you know he’s had this game circled on his calendar the minute the schedule came out.
Aaron Jones also carries a questionable tag as he manages a hamstring injury, and with the Packers on bye next week, there is at least a chance of him sitting to get two full weeks of rest. For now, I’m treating Adams as available, while having at least some alternate lineup construction plans for the slight chance Jones sits. (Update: Jones is looking closer to doubtful now)
Luke Musgrave left last week’s game early with a concussion, but he carries no injury designation this week and is good to go, along with Jimmy Garoppolo, who has also been cleared from the concussion protocol.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Packers at Raiders Week 5
Currently, this game is sitting at a 45.5 total, with the Raiders favored by 2.5 points. This close of a spread and Vegas being favored is basically an endorsement for Adams’ availability, along with how much of a must-win game this is for Vegas. The Packers are a better team than what they showed last Thursday against Detroit, and with a fully healthy Christian Watson leading a stacked WR group, along with Musgrave hopefully playing the full game, I’m expecting an extremely close game with some shootout potential.
Quarterback
Jimmy Garoppolo could have to shake off some rust after missing last week, and he is facing a strong Packers pass defense currently ranked 10th in the league in pass yards per game allowed at 197.3. He also offers pretty much zero rushing upside and has 6 INTs on the season. So all in all, I wouldn’t consider him a must-play in cash games but rather someone to have a decent amount of in GPPs stacked up with his WRs in a few different combinations. Top Packers CB Jaire Alexander is also expected to play tonight (was questionable), making this matchup even harder on Jimmy G.
Jordan Love is someone I’d consider a top cash game target, and as the fourth-most expensive player from this game, he should be very easy to fit. Unlike Garoppolo, Love does offer some rushing upside, with 72 rush yards and 2 rushing TDs on the season. He has a very solid 8:3 TD:INT ratio through four games, and even in a bad loss to Detroit last week, he still had his best completion percentage game of the season (63.9%). The Raiders defense has been better against the pass than the run, but with two extra days of rest and likely a full complement of weapons (except Jones it’s looking like), I think Love offers a high floor/high ceiling combo at a very affordable price, which is a great starting point for a cash-game lineup.
Running Back
Even if Aaron Jones is active, he carries some risk as the third-priciest player. I’m always a bit hesitant on guys dealing with hamstring injuries who didn’t get a full practice in, which was the case last week for Jones, in which he saw just 6 touches. I likely won’t use him in my main build, but if he’s active and we don’t hear any “pitch count” reports, then by all means, get him in plenty of GPP teams. His backup, AJ Dillon, has been extremely disappointing so far, even in the two games Jones missed, going for just 10.6 total fantasy points in those games. If Jones plays, Dillon won’t be on my radar outside of a couple GPP teams. But if Jones is out, then I think we have to consider Dillon for cash games since he’s just $4,600 against a Raiders defense allowing 134.3 rush yards per game. (Update: Jones is reportedly closer to doubtful now)
Josh Jacobs is someone I’ll definitely be using in my main build and potentially the Captain spot, as he draws one of the best matchups possible for an RB. Green Bay is ranked 31st in rush yards per game allowed at 155.3, and they just allowed 211 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs to the Lions last week. Jacobs is also seeing phenomenal usage in the pass game, coming off an 8/81 receiving line on 11 targets last week. And as a home favorite in a projected close game, I think Jacobs is the most likely player to score at least 1 TD tonight.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams is the priciest player in this game, but like Jacobs, I think he’s one of the biggest favorites to score at least 1 TD. The Raiders usage and target tree is so heavily weighted towards Adams & Jacobs, so covering both guys in your main build is the best way to get Raiders exposure without taking much risk on all of their fringe guys with low floors. Jakobi Meyers is cheap at $7,000 and has done great in games Garoppolo has played this season, so I’d make sure to have plenty of him in GPPs, especially on any lineup you make without Adams.
Christian Watson ($7,800) only played 45% of the snaps last week and came out of the game healthy, so I’m expecting a big jump in playing time this week against a Raiders defense allowing the 5th-most TDs to WRs. Romeo Doubs is only $400 pricier than Watson and has been the most productive Packers WR, with 18+ fantasy points in three of four games. Jayden Reed ($6,200) is the best value of the trio but also has the lowest floor, so he’s just a GPP play for me.
Between Watson and Doubs, I’d make sure to have at least one of them in pretty much every lineup, and if you only go with one in your cash-game lineup, I’d lean towards Watson, as I think he has more big-play upside.
Tight End
Luke Musgrave ($5,200) was coming off his best game in Week 3 before leaving early in Week 4 with a concussion, and with no injury designation today. he should be a full go. He is easily my favorite value from the Packers skill players and is a great option to stack with Love in your main build, along with using in GPPs with stack combos of Watson/Doubs/Reed.
Austin Hooper and Michael Mayer remain pure dart-throw GPP plays, as they continue to get almost no action in the passing game.
Defense / Special Teams
I’m not interested in either D/ST for cash games, but I would consider both kickers viable cash-game value options (both of whom are around $4k each), as the offenses should have plenty of red zone opportunities.
Monday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
My favorite build at the moment is a 4-2 Packers stack with Jacobs at Captain and both kickers, leaving $100 in salary. The Packers WRs and Musgrave are just so cheap compared to Jacobs/Adams that most lineups will likely have at least 3+ Packers in them and almost certainly will include Love too. Garoppolo/Meyers stacks with a Love/Jones/Musgrave bring-back is one of my favorite GPP lineups, as I’m expecting Doubs/Watson to be very popular, and any lineup with more than three Raiders in them should be much lower owned than Packers-heavy teams.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Josh Jacobs / Davante Adams – Jacobs should get the most touches for the Raiders in a great matchup for RBs, and if Adams truly isn’t fully healthy, they may lean on Jacobs even more in the passing game. I’d do my best to get both Adams and Jacobs in your main build, but any lineup without one of them should almost certainly include the other.
2. Jordan Love – Too cheap at $9,800, and with 19+ fantasy points in every game so far, he offers the best floor/ceiling combo of anyone from this game.
3. Christian Watson / Romeo Doubs – Both feel underpriced at around $8k each, and it’s likely each have big games if the Packers come away with a win tonight. Every lineup with Love should have at least one of them, if not both.
4. Luke Musgrave / Jakobi Meyers – They’re my favorite contrarian plays from each team and guys worth having plenty of in GPPs. For the price, I prefer Musgrave over Meyers as a cash-game target.
5. Daniel Carlson / Anders Carlson – Both are the best values under $4,500 for cash games, and I think most winning lineups will have least one of them in it.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Monday Night Football
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