Packers vs. Chiefs Odds, Picks, Prediction: Can Love Keep Up With Mahomes?
Packers vs. Chiefs Odds
| Packers Odds | +7 |
| Chiefs Odds | -7 |
| Over/Under | 48 |
| Date | Sunday, Nov 7 |
| Time | 4:25 pm |
| TV | FOX |
The Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs will battle on Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead Stadium. Considering that Aaron Rodgers has been ruled out for this game after a positive COVID-19 test, oddsmakers are expecting a relatively easy victory for the home favorites, pricing Kansas City as a touchdown favorite on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Packers Turn to Love While Rodgers Sits (COVID)
Jordan Love will be making his first career NFL start this weekend. When Head Coach Matt LaFleur was asked if Love is ready, LaFleur responded, “I’m not sure anyone really knows if Love is ready for this stage.” During the preseason, Love completed 24-of-35 passes for 271 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Yet, it is unwise to translate preseason numbers to regular season contests. Still, Love could be helped by the fact that Green Bay is likely to welcome back David Bakhtiari to the offensive line and Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to the wide receiver room. Based on Love’s prospect notes, he also has a phenomenal matchup against a very weak Kansas City secondary unit. Love is likely to be at his best if LaFleur can design a number of quick, short and intermediate throws for him in the middle of the field. Randall Cobb could be a frequent target on underneath routes. Green Bay also has Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon in the backfield—two capable pass catchers capable of wreaking havoc with screen passes. Bettors should expect LaFleur to design a number of low-risk, high-completion probability passes for his inexperienced signal caller on Sunday. Facing a defense allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.4 percent of their passes, Love is poised to have a strong day under center.
Defensively, the Packers have a number of standouts, such as Kenny Clark, Rasul Douglas, De’Vondre Campbell, and Adrian Amos. However, the continued absence of Jaire Alexander makes this team somewhat vulnerable through the air this Sunday. Fortunately, the Packers biggest defensive weakness—their rush defense, is unlikely to be much of a problem against a Chiefs offense that prefers to pass the ball. Green Bay should be competitive for the majority of this contest on both sides of the ball.
‘Get Right’ Spot for Chiefs and Mahomes?
At some point, the media is going to have to acknowledge that Patrick Mahomes has been awful this season. Since Week 3, Mahomes has thrown for more than 278 yards only once, and has a pedestrian 13-to-9 touchdown to interception ratio. Mahomes has the most interceptions of any quarterback in the NFL this fall, and ranks only 14th in QBR. Only once in Kansas City’s last four games have they scored more than 20 points, despite playing zero elite defenses during that span. The Chiefs have one of the best offensive lines in football, two premier pass catchers in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and a competent rotation of running backs that have combined to average the seventh-most yards-per-carry in the NFL this season. Mahomes is the biggest question mark for this offense right now, whether bettors and the media want to believe it or not.
There is arguably no team worse than the Chiefs on the defensive side of the ball. Kansas City has allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a 103.3 passer rating this season and has allowed the sixth-most passing yards of any team in the league. Kansas City is also allowing a disastrous 4.6 yards-per-carry on the ground this fall, which is especially problematic against a dynamic running back tandem such as Jones and Dillon for the Packers. This defense could be in for a long day again on Sunday.
Packers vs. Chiefs Pick
The total for this game hit as high as 54 prior to the news that Love would be making his first career NFL start. The consensus line at most sportsbooks right now is over/under 48. As we mentioned above, Love is unlikely to be a tremendous drop-off from Rodgers in this contest. If LaFleur puts together a strong gameplan, featuring a plethora of quick throws and easy completions, Green Bay should have little trouble moving the ball through the air against a weak Kansas City secondary. The Packers should also have success on the ground against one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. Mahomes and company have the benefit of playing at home against a Green Bay defense that is dealing with some injuries. Bettors should expect a relatively high-scoring game in this one. Take the over.
PICK: Over 48 (-110)
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