Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Packers vs. Raiders Odds
| Packers Odds | +2 |
| Raiders Odds | -2 |
| Over/Under | 45.5 |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 9 |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
The Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders will wrap up this week’s NFL slate on Monday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET from Allegiant Stadium.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Raiders as 2-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 45.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Green Bay Packers
Not much to Love under pressure
According to PFF, Jordan Love has completed 62.7% of his pass attempts for 7.6 yards per attempt and a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio from a clean pocket. He has been far less effective when under pressure, completing 33.3% of his pass attempts for 4.2 yards per attempt and a 1-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Raiders’ defense was among the worst in the NFL at getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks during the first two weeks of the season, but they enter play on Monday fresh off of back-to-back weeks with at least a 30% pressure rate. In Week 4, the Raiders had the 7th-highest defensive pressure rate of any team in the league. If Green Bay’s offensive line cannot protect Love this evening, it could be a long night for the offense.
Defense missing key pieces
On this week’s injury report, Green Bay has already ruled out linebacker D’Vondre Campbell. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is listed as questionable with a back injury but is expected to play.
Campbell’s absence alone is notable, considering he is likely the team’s best run defender. Campbell played 55 snaps in Week 1 and 68 snaps in Week 2, but he was limited to 11 snaps in Week 3 and has not played since. Green Bay’s run defense is far from elite, but they ranked 23rd in EPA/play across the first two weeks of the season. In Week 3 and Week 4, the Packers’ run defense ranked 27th in EPA/play. Campbell, who ranks 18th out of 82 qualified linebackers as a run defender in 2023, will be missed again on Monday.
Las Vegas Raiders
What to expect from the Raiders’ offense
Through four games this season, Las Vegas has yet to score more than 18 points in a single contest. Per NFL GSIS, the Raiders’ offense ranks 31st in rushing yards per play, 17th in passing yards per play, 20th in first downs per game, 30th in third-down percentage, and 22nd in the red zone. Earlier this week, Warren Sharp shared that this offense has seen 64% of their drives this season end with either a punt or a turnover – only five teams in the NFL ranked worse in this metric.
On Monday, this group will get Jimmy Garoppolo back on the field, but his advanced metrics have not translated to many points this season. Garoppolo ranks 15th among qualified signal callers in EPA/play and 6th in success rate, but he has thrown 6 interceptions in three games played and has only one game with more than 200 passing yards.
The recipe for success for Las Vegas appears simple on Monday – pound the rock with Josh Jacobs and limit turnovers. If the Raiders can take care of the football, they will give themselves a good chance to come away with a win.
Las Vegas defense making incremental gains
Las Vegas’ defense ranked 25th in pressure rate in Week 1 and 26th in pressure rate in Week 2, which unsurprisingly led to underwhelming defensive numbers overall – ranking 31st in EPA/play and success rate. Across the last two weeks, this unit has turned up the pressure considerably, which has led to significant gains in those metrics – ranking 19th in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate. The absence of cornerback Nate Hobbs will hurt this secondary unit, but their ability to get pressure should limit the damage done by throws deep downfield.
Packers vs. Raiders – Picks & Predictions
Green Bay’s offensive line is healthier this week than it was during their dreadful Week 4 showing, but this is still a somewhat difficult matchup for the Packers’ offense, if we are to trust the improvements we have seen the last two weeks from the Las Vegas defense. Most important is the fact that the Raiders have finally found a way to get pressure on the opposing quarterback, which is a problem for Jordan Love, who has struggled mightily under pressure in 2023. The absence of running back Aaron Jones only further complicates the path to points for the Green Bay offense, making it worth considering taking the under on their team total in this contest.
PICK: Packers Team Total Under 22.5 Points (-115, Fanatics Sportsbook)