Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears Odds, Prediction & Pick
Panthers vs. Bears Odds
| Panthers Odds | +3.5 |
| Bears Odds | -3.5 |
| Over/Under | 38 |
| Date | Thu, Nov. 9 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Prime Video |
Week 10 of the NFL regular season will begin with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears. Entering play, Carolina is tied for the fewest wins in the league this fall. Chicago owns Carolina’s 2024 first round pick and would have two of the top three picks in next summer’s draft if the season ended today.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Bears as 3.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 38 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Carolina Panthers
What to expect from Bryce Young
Bryce Young, the top overall draft pick from this past summer, has struggled mightily to begin his NFL career, with only one win in his first eight starts. Ahead of kickoff on Thursday, Young ranks 32nd in QBR, 30th in EPA/play, and 31st in success rate. He has taken at least four sacks in five separate games this fall and has yet to throw for more than 247 passing yards in any individual contest.
Young has been serviceable from a clean pocket, ranking 17th in passer rating among 28 qualified signal callers. However, he has been arguably the worst full-time starter in the league in 2023 when under pressure, raking 27th in passer rating, 27th in completion percentage, and 27th in yards per attempt in such situations. Notably, only six quarterbacks in the NFL have allowed a higher percentage of pressures to turn into sacks than Young.
Chicago has struggled to consistently generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks this year, but the addition of defensive lineman Montez Sweat unquestionably improves the Bears’ pass rush. Sweat had three pressures on only 41 snaps in his team debut last week, helping Chicago record their highest pressure rate as a team since Week 5. If Carolina’s offensive line is unable to protect Young this evening, the rookie is likely to put together another underwhelming performance.
Brian Burns, C.J Henderson ruled OUT
According to David Newton, Carolina’s 2023 sack leader Brian Burns, will not play tonight due to a concussion. Cornerback C.J. Henderson, one of the team’s starting members in the secondary unit will also miss this evening’s contest due to a concussion.
Yet, it is not all bad news for the Panthers defense, which will have safeties Vonn Bell and Xavier Woods available tonight in the same game for the first time since Week 3. Having both players healthy for their full allotment of snaps in Week 1 and Week 2, the Panthers allowed 44 points in two games to the Falcons and Saints. Carolina’s secondary unit ranked ninth in DVOA each of the first two weeks to begin the season.
Expect this group to perform better tonight than they have across the last month of action.
Chicago Bears
Tyson Bagent to start for the Bears
Make no mistake, Tyson Bagent is not the long-term answer at the quarterback position for the Bears. In four games played this year, Bagent has three touchdowns against six interceptions and his only win came against the spiraling Las Vegas Raiders prior to them cleaning house in their leadership department.
Among quarterbacks with at least 39 dropbacks from a clean pocket this year, Bagent ranks 36th in passer rating, 18th in yards per attempt, and dead-last in turnover-worthy-play rate, according to PFF. Bagent has been nearly equally as poor when under pressure, ranking 31st in passer rating, 36th in yards per attempt, and 35th in turnover-worthy-play rate.
Overall, Bagent ranks 30th out of 36 qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play and dead-last in air yards per attempt. Since Week 7, Chicago’s offense ranks 21st overall in EPA/play and 25th in dropback EPA/play. This is a bottom-tier offense heading into Week 10.
Montez Sweat making a difference for Chicago pass rush
Following three consecutive games with a 21.1% defensive pressure rate or lower, Chicago had a 27.0% pressure rate in Week 9, which was the first game in which the newly-acquired Montez Sweat played for the Bears. Sweat played 41 snaps and had three quarterback pressures, according to PFF.
Nevertheless, the arrival of Sweat is being overshadowed on Thursday by an unkind injury report for the Bears. Starting linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and cornerback Terell Smith have both been ruled out for tonight’s action. Edmunds is second on the team in tackles this fall and Smith has been a strong contributor when on the field. Smith has not played since Week 5.
Panthers vs. Bears – Picks & Predictions
Though Bryce Young has drawn a fair amount of criticism for his struggles as a rookie, there is little doubt that he is the far more talented quarterback in this matchup. Carolina is also returning two starting safeties to the field this evening, which should help their pass defense look much better than it has in recent weeks. Tyson Bagent leading Chicago’s offense is unlikely to result in a shootout, which further increases Carolina’s path to a cover in this spot. The road underdogs are live on the moneyline as well on Thursday Night Football.
PICK: Panthers +3.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)