Patrick Mahomes Props: Chiefs vs. Ravens NFL Prop Bets
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are set to clash with the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship game, and bettors are flocking to Patrick Mahomes props at online sportsbooks.
If you aren’t in a state with legal sports betting, you can make Patrick Mahomes predictions on apps like PrizePicks, too.
In this article, we’re going to present the argument for both the Over and Under on the most popular Mahomes props today for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens.
You can also get expert picks from our DFS and sports betting analysts by signing up for our Props & Pick’em package.
Patrick Mahomes Props
- Passing Yards: Over/Under 244.5
- Completions: Over/Under 24.5
- Pass Attempts: Over/Under 36.5
- Rushing Yards: Over/Under 27.5
- Interceptions: Over/Under 0.5
Let’s dig deeper into today’s Patrick Mahomes prop bets.
Why Mahomes props can go over 244.5 Passing Yards
Patrick Mahomes has exceed 244.5 passing yards in five of his last 10 games. In the postseason, however, Mahomes has gone over this number in 12 of his 16 games. The current Chiefs offense is not the offense we’ve seen in years past, but it’s clear that Mahomes ceiling is even higher when stakes are the highest.
In fact, as Tej Seth pointed out earlier this week, Mahomes as the second-most total EPA generated in the playoff since 1999.
With so much on the line, we expect Kansas City head coach Andy Reid to rely on Mahomes and the passing game even more so than normal.
Why Mahomes props can go under 244.5 passing yards
Mahomes has a very difficult matchup against the Baltimore Ravens defense, arguably the best defense in the NFL. Last week, the Ravens managed to hold the Texans, a formidable passing offense, to only 175 yards.
The Ravens blitz at one of the heaviest rates in the league, too. Mahomes is typically very good against these blitzes, the Kansas City Chiefs offensive line is wounded which should allow the Ravens defense to find success. The crowd and noise will make it even more difficult for Mahomes to communicate with his offensive line to pick up those blitzes.
Moreover, Mahomes has lost a ton of yards due to dropped passes from his receivers. Travis Kelce came on strong last week, and the emergence of rookie Rashee Rice has helped, the receiving corps is still full of deficiencies and unreliable targets.
Why Mahomes Props can go over 27.5 rushing yards
Quarterbacks are clearly more willing to scramble and put their bodies on the line when it’s do-or-die playoff games, which is what we have today. No, Mahomes isn’t the type of scrambler other quarterbacks are, but this too has played for the Chiefs quarterback in his postseason appearances.
In the 2024 playoffs, Mahomes is averaging just over 30 yards rushing per game. Against the Bills, a blitz-happy defense themselves, Mahoesm ran the ball six times. In last year’s Super Bowl, Mahomes ran for 44 yards against the Eagles.
The upside and the willingness are there for Mahomes, and the Ravens’ defensive scheme may force him to run even more than usual.
Why Mahomes props can go under 27.5 rushing yards
While Mahomes has shown a ceiling that can easily get over this number, the under has hit more often than not for his rushing prop. The under has hit 60% of the time in his last 10 games, and he’s averaging only 19.1 yards rushing per game during that same span.
Find out what our experts are saying about Patrick Mahomes props and more. We have dozens of picks for the Chiefs vs. Ravens and Lions vs. Ravens, plus props for other sports. Sign up today!