NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Patriots-Steelers DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Patriots at Steelers on Thursday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
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New England comes into this game on a five-game losing streak and is only playing for pride or a higher draft pick sitting at 2-10. Pittsburgh has won three of their last five and will be highly motivated to dominate at home after a bad loss to Arizona last week, and at 7-5 they still have a shot at winning the division or at least securing a Wild Card spot. Rhamondre Stevenson will miss multiple weeks with a high ankle sprain, and the Pats will also be without Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte. The Steelers will be starting Mitchell Trubisky as Pickett is out indefinitely after ankle surgery, and Najee Harris hasn’t practiced all week and is officially questionable with a knee issue.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Patriots at Steelers Week 14
Currently, this game is sitting at a 30.5 total, with the Steelers favored by 6 points. This is a historically low team total for the Patriots at just 12.25, and without Stevenson, it’s going to be hard for them to move the ball and get many red zone opportunities. Trubisky isn’t that big of a drop-off from Pickett, and at home coming off a bad loss has Pittsburgh favored by almost a full touchdown, which they should easily cover.
Quarterback
Between Mitchell Trubisky ($9,200) are Bailey Zappe ($9,000), I prefer the guy playing at home with a team total above 18, but neither are must plays in cash games for me. I think we could see both teams just run the ball a ton or try a lot of short passes and end-arounds to WRs, but Trubisky has much better weapons than Zappe (missing Douglas/Boutte/Stevenson), so his upside and floor are definitely higher. There’s also a decent chance that Zappe doesn’t play the whole game if he struggles in the first half.
Running Back
Najee Harris ($8,400) is expected to play, but coming in with a knee injury after no practice against a Pats rush defense allowing only 88.7 rush yards/game will be a tall task. Jaylen Warren ($8,000) is the Steelers RB I’d be looking to use in cash games, as we know he’s healthy and should get more passing work, and if Pittsburgh gets a solid lead or even falls behind, Warren should benefit the most in either scenario as I don’t think they’re looking to push Harris too hard with his knee issue.
Ezekiel Elliott ($9,400) is looking at a true workhorse role with Stevenson out, as only JaMycal Hasty ($200) is his RB competition. Elliott should be looking at a 20-touch floor with plenty of targets, and he’s by far the safest Patriots player in cash games as far as touches and upside goes.
Wide Receiver
I prefer Diontae Johnson ($9,800) over George Pickens ($10,000) in cash games as he’s still seeing more targets and comes at a slight discount. Both are still excellent GPP plays and I’d definitely have plenty of lineups with both in the captain spot if you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry).
DeVante Parker ($5,600) is the de facto WR1 for Zappe tonight, and he is a solid cash game play coming off a 9-target game. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($3,800) may have some extra motivation going against his former team, but he is still a super low floor guy who had just 1 catch last week, but if he fills your final flex spot on your favorite build, then I think he’s cheap enough to take a chance on. Thornton ($3,400) and Reagor ($1,600) each saw just one target each last week and are just GPP fliers tonight.
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth ($7,400) is a bit too expensive to call him a cash game must play, but he’s still worth having exposure to in some GPP lineups. It’s a birthday narrative for Hunter Henry ($5,200), and with all the injuries for the Pats, I think he is a pretty solid cash game play for the price.
Defense / Special Teams
With a 30.5-game total, both DSTs are squarely in play in all formats, and I’d even have some lineups with each in the captain spot. Pittsburgh DST ($6,600) is the highest price we’ve ever seen a defense in a showdown slate, and even the Pats DST ($5,000) is pretty pricey, but both have clear huge upside going against shaky QBs.
Both offenses should struggle to score consistently, but Chris Boswell ($5,400) will almost certainly have more opportunities than Chad Ryland ($4,600), so he’s my preferred kicker to target in cash games.
Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
I’m finding it hard to use more than two Patriots in most lineups, so either a 5-1 or 4-2 Steelers stack is how I’m going in cash games and most tourney teams. I like either Warren or Elliott in the captain spot, while the Steelers DST and even Boswell are solid contrarian captain plays.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Ezekiel Elliott – Volume alone should pay off his price tag, especially with his work in the passing game, and if he finds the endzone he’ll be a must play on any winning team.
2. Jaylen Warren – I think there are a lot of scenarios where Warren sees a huge workload tonight, especially if Harris ends up out or is limited in any capacity after not practicing all week.
3. Steelers DST / Chris Boswell – With an almost comical 12.25 team total, I think Pittsburgh’s defense is one of the highest-upside plays tonight, and Boswell is just a great salary saver who should have a 10+ FP floor.
4. Diontae Johnson / George Pickens – Both should be on plenty of GPP lineups, but if you only go with one in cash games I’d lean towards Johnson.
5. DeVante Parker / Hunter Henry / JuJu Smith-Schuster – Parker should see the most Pats targets and has a decent chance at a long TD, while Henry and JuJu are cheap enough to be cash game viable if either can get 4-6 targets.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Thursday Night Football
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