New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Patriots vs. Broncos Odds
| Patriots Odds | +7 |
| Broncos Odds | -7 |
| Over/Under | 37 |
| Date | Sun, Dec. 24 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | NFL Network |
Sunday’s 10-game NFL slate will conclude with a matchup between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos at 8:15 p.m. ET on NFL Network. Entering play, the Patriots own the worst record in the AFC at 3-11 and have been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. The Broncos are 7-7 and can move into a tie for the final Wild Card position in the AFC with a victory this evening.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Broncos as 7-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 37 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
New England Patriots
What to expect from Bailey Zappe, Saints offense
During the last three weeks, with Bailey Zappe at quarterback, the Patriots’ offense ranked 29th in EPA/play and 29th in success rate. Zappe has looked very much like a backup signal caller, ranking 30th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play, 28th in success rate, and 21st in air yards in those three games. Only six quarterbacks have a higher turnover-worthy-play rate in that stretch than Zappe.
Tonight, Zappe and the Patriots will be even further hindered with starting left guard Cole Strange ruled out due to a knee injury. This group is likely to find it difficult to score points in Week 16.
Jabrill Peppers ruled OUT
The latest big name to suffer an injury for New England’s defense is starting safety Jabrill Peppers, who has been one of the best players in the league at his position in 2023. According to PFF, Peppers ranked 2nd out of 87 safeties as a run defender and 10th-best in coverage through the first 15 weeks of the season.
In addition to Peppers being out, the Patriots will continue to play without linebacker Matt Judon and cornerback Christian Gonzalez – each of whom last played in Week 4. The Patriots have been strong against the run of late, leading the NFL in defensive Rush EPA/play and success rate since their bye week, but they will have a tough test tonight trying to compensate for the loss of Peppers.
Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson hoping to lead Denver to victory
Following a disastrous start to the year, head coach Sean Payton made a concerted effort to reduce the number of risks that his offense took through the air in subsequent weeks. Since Week 5, Russell Wilson has the 3rd-lowest average depth of target (aDOT) of any qualified quarterback, with the team prioritizing the run game above all else.
During that stretch, Denver’s offense ranks 23rd in EPA/play and 20th in success rate overall, but they have the 9th-best success rate on the ground since Week 5, which has propelled their offensive attack. Expect this approach to remain similar in Week 16 as the Broncos look to get back over the .500 mark and keep their playoff hopes alive.
Denver defense trending up
Since Week 12, the Broncos rank 13th in defensive DVOA, 9th in EPA/play, and 15th in success rate. They have been best defending the air, ranking 6th in EPA/play and 8th in success rate against the pass, compared to 12th in EPA/play and 20th in success rate against the run across their last four games.
Since Thanksgiving, the Broncos have allowed 65 rushing yards to Jerome Ford, 41 rushing yards to Dameon Pierce, 51 rushing yards to Austin Ekeler, 85 rushing yards to David Montgomery, and 100 rushing yards to Jahmyr Gibbs. The Broncos will need to contain the New England ground attack this evening if they hope to come away with a win.
Patriots vs. Broncos – Picks & Predictions
Since Bailey Zappe took over as the team’s starting quarterback, the Patriots have scored zero points, 21 points, and 17 points against the Chargers, Steelers, and Chiefs, respectively. Since Week 12, those three teams rank 26th, 22nd, and 23rd in defensive DVOA while the Broncos rank 13th. Denver is completely healthy on the defensive side of the ball and figures to do everything they can to slow this game down tonight, which should keep this contest relatively low-scoring. The Patriots are likely to find it extremely difficult to put points on the board in this spot.
PICK: Patriots Team Total – Under 14.5 Points (-120, Fanatics Sportsbook)
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