New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Patriots vs. Jets Odds
| Patriots Odds | +6 |
| Jets Odds | -6 |
| Over/Under | 38.5 |
| Date | Thursday, September 19th |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Week 3 of the NFL regular season will begin with an AFC East affair between the New England Patriots and New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Jets as 6-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 38.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Both of these teams will be missing key pieces on Thursday Night Football as they look to get over the .500 mark. Tonight will be Aaron Rodgers first home game since tearing his Achilles in the team’s season opener in 2023.
New England Patriots Preview
Patriots offensive line struggling early in 2024
According to Evan Lazar, New England’s offensive line ranks dead last in pass-blocking win rate through the first two weeks of the season. Pro Football Focus has them ranked 29th out of 32 teams in their pass-blocking grading system. Advanced analytics disagree somewhat in how bad this unit has been, but the conclusion is the same – this group is struggling mightily early in 2024.
Part of the issue has been an unfortunate run of injuries. Starting RG Sidy Sow hasn’t played yet this year, due to an ankle injury that he suffered during the team’s preseason finale. New England elevated the inexperienced Michael Jordan from the practice squad to start in his place. On Thursday, the Patriots will also be without starting LT Vederian Lowe. However, this could actually be a blessing in disguise for New England. Through two games, Lowe has allowed a ghastly 12.7% pressure rate. His replacement this evening will be Caedan Wallace, who was drafted in the 3rd round this past summer. Wallace has been primarily used in run-blocking situations early this year, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see New England lean heavily on the run early in this contest.
C David Andrews and RT Mike Onwenu are both listed as questionable for tonight, but both players seem closer to “probable” after logging a limited practice on Wednesday.
New England defense missing key pieces
New England’s defense played well in their season opener, finishing Week 1 ranked 9th in EPA/play and 15th in success rate. In Week 2, they lost starting LB Ja’Whaun Bentley after only 10 snaps, which led to some regression – finishing the weekend ranked 23rd in EPA/play and 25th in success rate.
Bentley is not only the team’s primary on-field communicator, but he led the team in tackles and added a 0.5 sack in Week 1. His absence is a significant loss for a unit that has already been playing without star DT Christian Barmore.
New York Jets Preview
Rodgers, Jets offense making progress
Aaron Rodgers struggled in Week 1 against the 49ers, completing only 13-of-21 pass attempts for 167 yards. He even threw an interception before being taken out of the game midway through the 4th quarter, in a blowout. The results are obviously the results, but it’s worth noting that Rodgers is 40 years old and was playing in his first game since tearing his Achilles the year prior. He also didn’t play a single snap in the preseason, which is usually a bad omen for starting quarterbacks.
In Week 2, Rodgers and the Jets offense looked much better, albeit still not great. Rodgers threw a pair of touchdown passes against a tough Tennessee defense and didn’t commit a turnover. New York’s EPA/play jumped from -0.01 in Week 1 to 0.08 in Week 2 – enough of a difference to improve from 18th to 8th in team rankings week-over-week. Breece Hall and Braelon Allen combined for 95 yards on the ground and another 75 yards catching passes out of the backfield against the Titans.
The production still didn’t live up to preseason expectations, but Rodgers and company should find some more room to operate on Thursday against a banged-up New England defense.
Johnson, Reddick both OUT for Week 3
New York’s offense isn’t the only unit that has underwhelmed to begin 2024. The Jets’ highly-respected defense hasn’t exactly been formidable through two weeks, allowing 401 yards against the 49ers in Week 1 and another 300 yards against the Titans in Week 2. Further complicating matters for Week 3 is the absence of EDGE Jermaine Johnson, who exited this past weekend’s game against Tennessee with a torn Achilles. Johnson hadn’t yet recorded a sack in 2024, but he led the Jets in pressures on the quarterback in each of the team’s first two games. New York is also without EDGE Haason Reddick right now, who continues to hold out for a new contract. The pass rush for this unit is more thin on talent than many people realize.
The good news for the Jets is that CB DJ Reed is expected to return to the field on Thursday after missing Week 2 with an injury. Reed is one of the league’s premier cornerbacks and should help stabilize a New York pass defense that has been surprisingly vulnerable early this fall, ranking 18th in EPA/play and 13th in success rate.
Patriots vs. Jets Prediction
Jacoby Brissett hasn’t provided much high-level quarterback play through two weeks in 2024, but he’s been perfectly mediocre, which has given New England a chance to win both of their games so far this season. Brissett ranks 26th out of 34 quarterbacks (min. 10 attempts) in aDOT so far this fall, but he’s done a good job taking care of the football and taking what the defense is giving him. Entering play in Week 3, he ranks 16th in EPA/play and 10th in success rate among qualified quarterbacks, despite playing behind an offensive line that has done him no favors.
Aaron Rodgers looked better in Week 2 than he did in Week 1, which offers fans hope that the best is yet to come for the aging quarterback, who is coming off of the most serious injury of his career. Rodgers and company have played a pair of tough defenses on the road to begin 2024, but return home for Thursday night football, where they get to host a New England defense that is down a few stars. The Jets should be able to put some points on the board in this matchup, after ranking 8th in EPA/play this past weekend against the Titans.
Entering play on Thursday, both of these defenses are in relatively poor shape. New England is down two of their most important defensive playmakers, including their primary on-field communicator. Playing on a short week, there could be some early issues related to getting guys lined up where they need to be. The Jets get CB DJ Reed back on the field, but they are now down both of their top-two pass rushers after EDGE Jermaine Johnson tore his ACL in Week 2. Neither the Patriots nor the Jets play at a particularly quick pace, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see these two offenses have some early success this evening before taking the air out of the ball in the second half.
PICK: OVER 20 – 1st Half (+107, DraftKings)
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