FREE TODAY - PGA Cash Breakdown: Quicken Loans National
Top-ranked grinder, Notorious, will break down his top cash game golf plays for the coming week’s tournament. Notorious has been nominated for the FSWA Golf Writer of the Year award and has quickly established himself as one of the brightest PGA DFS minds out there.
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Quicken Loans National
Rickie Fowler
Odds: 6
OWGR: 8
Fairways: 25
APP: 40
BS: 48
BoB: 3
P4: 17
Noto’s Golfer Rank: 1
Salaries: DK: $11,700 — FD: $12,600 — FDRFT: $14,200
For the last couple of months, I’ve leaned toward the balanced approach for lineup building. That all changes this week. Even though I don’t feel great about the value plays, I don’t feel great about the mid-range either. With this being a difficult course, I want as much winning equity into my lineup as I can find and that leads me to a stars and scrubs approach. Fowler is the overwhelming favorite this week (6-to-1), he’s the class of the field, and he needs a win to kickstart his season. He’s still in search of his first major, so he’d love to head into the Open Championship with confidence. Fowler doesn’t have a weakness in his game and he tends to play difficult courses well. He played well here last season, finishing in a tie for third.
Tiger Woods
Odds: 11
OWGR: 79
Fairways: 98
APP: 1
BS: 11
BoB: 8
P4: 18
Noto’s Golfer Rank: 2
Salaries: DK: $11,000 — FD: $12,300 — FDRFT: $14,200
I’m on record of saying that Tiger is going to win this season and that when he does, I’m going to be there. He’s the one player that I can’t seem to get away from. Bias aside, he’s a strong play this week in all formats. He is ranked first in the field in strokes gained on approaches and we’ve seen him compete on shorter tracks all season where he doesn’t have to hit many drivers. He can hit his driving iron 280+, which is plenty long for most of these holes. The club that has been letting him down recently has been his putter, but he’s always been great on fast greens. These bentgrass greens at TPC Potomac are expected to run at a 13 on the stimpmeter. Tiger has winning upside in the weakest field he’s played in all season.
Byeong-Hun An
Odds: 37
OWGR: 58
Fairways: 67
APP: 19
BS: 23
BoB: 18
P4: 22
Noto’s Golfer Rank: 9
Salaries: DK: $8,600 — FD: $10,800 — FDRFT: $14,200
An nearly pulled off a win at the Memorial, but couldn’t back it up with a strong finish at the U.S. Open. While he was +19 on the weekend, at least he made the cut. He’ll try to follow the same path that Kyle Stanley did last season — ball strike his way to a win. He’s certainly capable of it, as he’s one of the best ball strikers in this field. He’s ranked in the top 25 in ball striking, approach, birdie or better, and par four scoring. He played here last season and finished inside the top 30. This may be a hot take, but even without the savings factored in, I prefer An over anyone in the $9,000 range on DraftKings.
Gary Woodland
Odds: 41
OWGR: 41
Fairways: 27
APP: 35
BS: 14
BoB: 31
P4: 5
Noto’s Golfer Rank: 16
Salaries: DK: $8,100 — FD: $10,200 — FDRFT: $14,200
Woodland feels way underpriced in this field, especially on DraftKings ($8,100). After his win at the Waste Management Open, his form fell off the face of the earth for the next few months. I’ve been waiting and waiting for his irons to come back around and it finally looks like we can fire him up with confidence again. At the Memorial, he gained five strokes on approaches and then posted a solid finish at the U.S. Open. While he didn’t play here last season, he’s a nice fit for the course. Over the course of his career, he has always played well on shorter tracks that require golfers to club down off the tee.
Andrew Putnam
Odds: 57
OWGR: 148
Fairways: 38
APP: 19
BS: 14
BoB: 7
P4: 1
Noto’s Golfer Rank: 14
Salaries: DK: $7,900 — FD: $9,800 — FDRFT: $14,200
Putnam isn’t going to stand out as a good play in any model that looks at long term form or statistics. He’s ranked 148th in the world, but he’s made a huge leap in those rankings over the last few months. Based on current form alone, there are only a handful of golfers with better form than Putnam. Get this — Putnam grades out as the top golfer in my model based on statistics alone. He’s ranked inside the top 20 in approach, ball striking, birdie or better, and par four scoring. The last time we saw him, he finished in solo second behind Dustin Johnson at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Maybe this is the week he can finally break through with a win.
Cheng-Tsung Pan
Odds: 78
OWGR: 183
Fairways: 12
APP: 37
BS: 20
BoB: 57
P4: 3
Noto’s Golfer Rank: 19
Salaries: DK: $7,300 — FD: $8,500 — FDRFT: $14,200
We’ve had some really bad chalk bust over the last couple of tournaments. We had Ben Crane and Joel Dahmen a few weeks ago (and yes I wrote up both) and we had Pan last week. Anytime a mediocre golfer becomes the chalk, it makes sense to fade them given the volatility of golf in general. Pan is in a great bounce-back spot this week and is a great pivot off of the chalky Adam Hadwin, whose tee to green game has been trending in the wrong direction. Pan is cheap, his statistics match the course nicely, and he’s seen this course before. The best time to hop on is when everyone else hops off.
Ben Crane
Odds: 125
OWGR: 310
Fairways: 15
APP: 47
BS: 41
BoB: 26
P4: 86
Noto’s Golfer Rank: 43
Salaries: DK: $6,700 — FD: $8,600 — FDRFT: $14,200
Playing the similar bounce-back angle, I’m going right back to the well with Crane. We should never overreact when it comes to PGA DFS. In his last tournament, Crane was $7,400 and was 20% owned. He’s now $6,700 in a much weaker field and he’s going to be under 10% owned. Crane hits a lot of fairways, he makes birdies, and he is a good putter on bentgrass. If you are playing the stars and scrubs approach, Crane should be on your radar for both cash games and tournaments.
The PGA video will be posted on Wednesday by 1:00 PM ET.
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