PGA Cash Breakdown: Sentry Tournament of Champions
Top-ranked grinder, Notorious, will break down his top cash game golf plays for the coming week’s tournament. Notorious has been nominated for the FSWA Golf Writer of the Year award and has quickly established himself as one of the brightest PGA DFS minds out there.
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Sentry Tournament of Champions
Golf is back! If you are new to our premium content this season, welcome. I try to post my favorite plays early in the week and each Wednesday, I record a video where I show my PGA DFS model and give my final thoughts on the tournament that week. Make sure to tune into the video, as it includes my latest thoughts on golfers. Every once in a while, I will write up a golfer on Monday or Tuesday and then be off of him by the time Wednesday rolls around. For a course preview, check out the PGA First Look each and every week.
Noto’s Rating: 97.5
Salaries: DK: $11,000 — FD: $12,000 — FDRFT: $14,200
How great is it to have DFS golf back in our lives? It’s actually nice that this is a short field event, as we don’t have to worry about a cut on Friday afternoon. We can ease our way back into things. The top play on the board this week is DJ, who dominates at this event each and every year. He’s the defending champion (won by eight strokes) and has finished inside the top ten in each of his last four appearances here. This is a course that features wide fairways, so it’s bombs away for golfers like Johnson. He should be able to feast on the four par fives and on the drivable par fours (he stuck a drive last year within a foot of the cup). While it’s hard to go wrong with any of the elite options, I’ll take DJ over Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas this week.
Noto’s Rating: 82.2
Salaries: DK: $9,800 — FD: $10,500 — FDRFT: $14,200
Rahm is one of the most talented golfers in the world. Even though he had a great year by most golfer’s standards in 2018, it was a little disappointing given how many people projected him to be the top golfer on the planet. A down year might have been exactly what Rahm needed. The pressure is off and now he can come out and start winning tournaments again. Historically, he has played his best on easy golf courses and we have seen two golfers shoot 30-under par at this event in the past. Rahm is coming off of a win at the Hero World Challenge and should benefit from the wide fairways. While the shorter hitters can compete here, the edge clearly goes to the bombers this week.
Noto’s Rating: 81.9
Salaries: DK: $8,700 — FD: $10,900 — FDRFT: $14,200
Whether you like DeChambeau or not, there is no denying that he’s a top ten golfer in the world (and arguably a top five golfer). His game translates anywhere — he is long and straight off the tee, he’s deadly accurate with his irons, and his putting took big strides forward last year. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see Bryson win a major this season and again, his game suits all types of courses. He is ranked sixth or better in this field in strokes gained approach, birdie or better percentage, par four scoring, and par five scoring. He has nearly as much win equity as any golfer in the field, yet he’s considerably cheaper than Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, and Brooks Koepka.
Noto’s Rating: 81.3
Salaries: DK: $8,500 — FD: $10,000 — FDRFT: $14,200
Webb is a late addition to the plays this week. The more I dive into the course, the clearer the picture becomes — you have to be deadly accurate with your wedges and you have to be able to putt. Simpson grades out as number three in this field in my proximity blend (which focuses mostly on approach shots from 75-125 yards) and he’s number one in this field in strokes gained putting. He had a career resurgence in 2018 and will look to continue that this season. He has played here three times in the past, posting finishes of T3, T11, and T3.
Noto’s Rating: 66.3
Salaries: DK: $8,200 — FD: $10,300 — FDRFT: $14,200
Reed is one of the most hated players on the PGA Tour. When you combine that with his poor statistics, he generally flies under the radar when it comes to DFS. He’s burned many bridges in the past, so many DFS players just automatically exclude him from their player pools. That could be a big mistake this week, as he clearly has an eye for the this course. In his last three trips here, he has finishes of first, second, and sixth. He’s not an accurate driver of the golf ball, so these wide fairways give him a significant boost. He’s typically good with his irons when playing from the fairway and he has one of the strongest short games on tour.
Noto’s Rating: 74.4
Salaries: DK: $8,000 — FD: $9,400 — FDRFT: $14,200
Woodland finally broke out and picked up a win last year at the Waste Management Open. It was long overdue, so it was no surprise to see him lose some motivation in the months following. We see this happen all the time on the PGA Tour. Toward the end of last season, he started playing great golf again, posting a bunch of top ten finishes. He’s ranked third in this field in strokes gained off the tee and first in par five scoring. He should be able to take advantage of the four par fives and of the drivable par fours. All it will take for him to find the winner’s circle again is a decent week with the flatstick.
Noto’s Rating: 71.0
Salaries: DK: $7,900 — FD: $9,700 — FDRFT: $14,200
This is a price play more than anything else. Over the years, Casey has been a DFS favorite because he rarely misses cuts and he posts an incredible number of top ten finishes. His consistency makes him a strong option in cash games and after years of being a punch line about not winning, he broke through and won on the PGA Tour last season. The combination of a high floor and a high ceiling makes him a difficult fade at this price point. Even though we haven’t seen Casey golf competitively in quite some time, he’s a steal at this price. He’s the 14th ranked golfer in the world, yet this week, he’s the 14th most expensive golfer on DraftKings and the 12th most expensive on FanDuel.
Noto’s Rating: 64.5
Salaries: DK: $7,000 — FD: $8,100 — FDRFT: $14,200
Horschel is an incredibly streaky golfer. He basically struggled for the entire first half of last season and then really turned it on toward the end of summer and into the fall. He grew up in Florida, so he is very comfortable on bermuda greens. That should come into handy this week, especially since three-putts are a common occurrence on these large, undulating greens. Statistically, Horschel stands out compared to the other golfers in his price range. He is ranked ninth in this field in strokes gained off the tee, eighth in strokes gained approach, and 11th in par five scoring. He has played here three times in the last five seasons, posting finishes of sixth, T22, and T11.
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