PGA Cash Breakdown: U.S. Open
Top-ranked grinder, Notorious, will break down his top cash game golf plays for the coming week’s tournament. Notorious has been nominated for the FSWA Golf Writer of the Year award and has quickly established himself as one of the brightest PGA DFS minds out there.
U.S. Open
Model Video
Strategy Talk
This is a great week to build multiple lineups, whether you are playing cash games or tournaments. With the soft pricing and the stacked field, it’s hard to narrow down your player pool. This doesn’t mean that you should make three lineups with 18 different golfers though, as your teams will likely be competing with each other. I plan to make three main lineups that I enter in cash games and tournaments and will use my favorite golfers (most likely all of the core plays below) in two of the three teams. I will then add in the fringe plays to round out my lineups.
This should be an incredibly fun week of golf, especially since Fox will have the broadcast. Make sure to check the weather (click here for the closest wind tower) for any potential tee time wave advantage. I will try to post any update to the picks on Wednesday. Let’s jump right into the picks!
Core Plays
Dustin Johnson
Odds: 8
OWGR: 1
OTT: 3
APP: 7
BoB: 3
P4: 4
SGP: 9
Noto’s Golfer Rank: 1
Salaries: DK: $11,700 — FD: $12,400 — FDRFT: $14,200
DJ ran away from the field at the FedEx St. Jude Classic last week and he did it in epic fashion, holing out his approach shot on 18 to win by four strokes. When we think of a U.S. Open style of player, DJ fits the mold as well as anyone. He hits it longer than anyone and he hits it straight. His irons were on fire last week and he can score on both the par fours and the par fives. Throughout his career, he’s been his best at putting when he’s on poa annua greens. Everything is lining up for DJ’s second major. I expect him to be very popular on FanDuel, but the balanced approach is awfully intriguing on DraftKings, which should help keep him from being the uber chalk at a price of $11,700.
Justin Rose
Odds: 14
OWGR: 3
OTT: 21
APP: 9
BoB: 2
P4: 2
SGP: 67
Noto’s Golfer Rank: 3
Salaries: DK: $9,900 — FD: $12,200 — FDRFT: $14,200
If I could only choose two golfer to win this week, I would pick DJ and Rose (with JT being a close third). Rose has been in great form for months. He’s long off the tee, he’s great with his long irons, and he’s ranked second in this field in both birdie or better percentage and par four scoring. He’s my third ranked golfer this week, yet he’s the seventh most expensive on both DraftKings and FantasyDraft. He has a good track record at the U.S. Open (win in 2013) and he likes links-style golf. Form and fit are certainly on his side. The only knock on Rose this week is his ownership. We currently have him projected to be the second-highest owned golfer of the week.
Tiger Woods
Odds: 19
OWGR: 80
OTT: 87
APP: 3
BoB: 44
P4: 23
SGP: 30
Noto’s Golfer Rank: 8
Salaries: DK: $9,200 — FD: $11,000 — FDRFT: $14,200
I’m generally very good at avoiding bias plays in DFS, but Tiger is my one exception. I’ve had shares of Tiger in every week that he has played this season. Earlier in the year, he was overpriced and if he had any other name, he would have been an easy fade. However, he seems to be getting better and better with each and every start. It seems like one of his clubs lets him down each week. The last time we saw Tiger he gained 11 strokes on approaches and five around the green. He lost eight strokes putting. If he would have been even with the field, he would have won the Memorial. I love that his tee to green game is so strong and he was seen playing a practice round at Shinnecock Hills with Steve Stricker, who has been known to fix Tiger’s putting woes in the past. Tiger is a grinder and I love that type of mentality on difficult golf courses.
Henrik Stenson
Odds: 30
OWGR: 17
OTT: 26
APP: 6
BoB: 40
P4: 4
SGP: 18
Noto’s Golfer Rank: 6
Salaries: DK: $8,800 — FD: $11,300 — FDRFT: $14,200
It’s hard not to like Stenson this week. He has made six straight cuts on tour, finishing inside the top 30 each time with three top six finishes. During that stretch, he has gained 37 strokes tee to green and that doesn’t even include the Masters where we didn’t have ShotLink data. Stenson has three top 30 finishes in his last five U.S. Opens and he has a great track record on links-style courses. If we want a golfer that hits it long and straight and it good with his long irons, there are few on tour that are better at that combination than Stenson. After burning so many DFS players over the last few years, he’s finally back in our good graces.
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: 40
OWGR: 12
OTT: 17
APP: 42
BoB: 16
P4: 43
SGP: 59
Noto’s Golfer Rank: 14
Salaries: DK: $8,100 — FD: $10,400 — FDRFT: $14,200
My main man Fleetwood is back in our lives. If it weren’t for Tiger, he would be my favorite golfer on tour. I love the swag and I love the hair. Much like Tiger, Fleetwood is a grinder. He may not win many events where the winning score is 20-under par, but he’s always going to be in the mix where par is a good score. Since June of last year, he has only missed one cut on tour and he’s coming off of a solid performance at TPC Sawgrass where he finished T7 at the Players. He is a world class golfer that is only $8,100 on DraftKings this week. I plan to be massively overweight on Fleetwood in both cash games and tournaments. Don’t forget that he nearly won the U.S. Open last year and he’s clearly a better golfer (at least on U.S. soil) a year later.
Paul Casey
Odds: 46
OWGR: 11
OTT: 33
APP: 8
BoB: 10
P4: 41
SGP: 71
Noto’s Golfer Rank: 13
Salaries: DK: $8,000 — FD: $10,500 — FDRFT: $14,200
If someone forced me to hit the “lock button” (100% exposure) on a golfer this week, I would pick Casey. How on earth is he $8,000 on DraftKings this week? He’s the 11th ranked golfer in the world, the 13th ranked golfer in my model, and he’s the 20th most expensive on DraftKings. He’s one of the best ball strikers in the world. He’s strong off the tee, he’s great with his long irons, and he’s good around the green. He’s not the best putter in the field, but as we saw at Valspar, the flatstick can certainly get hot at any time. Casey has a long track record of playing difficult courses well and he has made four of his last five cuts at the U.S. Open. Eat the chalk because it tastes good.
Tony Finau
Odds: 72
OWGR: 37
OTT: 45
APP: 26
BoB: 29
P4: 40
SGP: 64
Noto’s Golfer Rank: 21
Salaries: DK: $7,500 — FD: $10,200 — FDRFT: $14,200
Finau fits that mold that we are looking for at a U.S. Open. You have to be long off the tee and you have to be able to compete on courses where par is a good score. Finau is one of the longest on tour, he’s ranked 26th in approaches, and he seems to putt much better anytime he’s not on Bermuda. He’s another golfer that feels underpriced across the industry. We are only a couple months away from Finau dislocating his ankle at the Masters, snapping back into place, and then finishing with a T10. His missed cut at last week’s tournament should help keep him from being the highest owned golfer in the field, even though he probably should be at this price point.
Shane Lowry
Odds: 114
OWGR: 85
OTT: 70
APP: 55
BoB: 42
P4: 71
SGP: 75
Noto’s Golfer Rank: 42
Salaries: DK: $7,200 — FD: $8,200 — FDRFT: $14,200
On last week’s show, I mentioned that I liked Lowry at the St. Jude Classic, but that I liked him even more at the U.S. Open. He has quietly been rounding into form after seemingly disappearing for a year. He has made five straight cuts on tour and has gained at least five strokes tee to green in three of those events. He loves links-style golf and he seems to love the U.S. Open. He nearly won in 2016 and posted another top ten in 2015. He should be very low owned, even though he’s a much safer play than most of the golfers in this price range. If the wind picks up, that will only make me like Lowry even more.
Emiliano Grillo
Odds: 91
OWGR: 52
OTT: 56
APP: 17
BoB: 13
P4: 16
SGP: 74
Noto’s Golfer Rank: 26
Salaries: DK: $7,100 — FD: $8,800 — FDRFT: $14,200
I went back and forth on Grillo and Snedeker for this last spot. I picked Grillo, but may change to Snedeker if it looks like the wind is going to really pick up. Grillo has certainly been in the better form of the two, as he has made 19 straight cuts on tour and he has four top ten finishes in his last ten events. He’s one of the best total drivers of the ball, as he’s above the tour average in distance and in accuracy, which should be a big weapon this week. He’s also one of the best on tour with approach shots. The best part is that he was a late add to the field (added to the sites on Monday), so he could fly under the radar a bit.
Fringe Plays
It’s always hard to write a picks article for golf because I typically make two or three main lineups and a number of large-field tournament lineups. I started including this section to highlight players that I really like, but aren’t core plays. These are picks that will find their way into my lineups, whether it’s on one of my main teams or one of my large-field tournament teams. We’ll start with the expensive golfers. As mentioned above Dustin Johnson is my favorite, but Justin Thomas is a close second. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 22 since last year’s BMW Championship. He also made at run at the U.S. Open last season. I have a little interest in Jason Day, who hits it long and is the best putter in the world. In the next range, Jon Rahm stands out. He’s one of the best golfers in the world, he’s underpriced, and he is projected at less than 20% ownership. Brooks Koepka was really close to making the core plays. He’s in good form, he plays difficult courses well, and is obviously the defending U.S. Open champion.
As we dip lower, I actually think Bryson DeChambeau is a good fade in tournaments. He is coming off of his biggest win on tour and should be very popular. I will gladly pivot to Phil Mickelson and Branden Grace. Mickelson finished second here in 2004 and is one of the best DK scorers in the field. Grace loves links-style golf, he’s trending in the right direction, and he has a good track record at the U.S. Open. Patrick Cantlay was very close to making the core plays section. He’s a strong golfer that is ready to make some noise on the big stage. Jimmy Walker and Brandt Snedeker will be littered throughout my tournament lineups. Walker is finally playing well again, while Snedeker loves poa greens and he loves the U.S. Open. Matt Kuchar fits that same mold, even though his tee to green game hasn’t been great this season. If we dip below the $7,000 level on DraftKings there are a number of intriguing values. Byeong-Hun An, Steve Stricker, Gary Woodland, and Charles Howell all feel a little too cheap, even in this field.
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