2020 PGA Championship Round 4 Odds and Betting Picks
It was worth the wait.
More than a year after our last taste of major golf, 13 golfers sit within three strokes of Dustin Johnson’s solo lead (-9) at TPC Harding Park.
Speaking of Johnson, the former number-one, now fifth-ranked player in the world climbed up the PGA Championship’s leaderboard after starting four shots back on Saturday.
It’s called moving day for a reason.
Johnson made his move by shooting a 5-under 65 and gaining nearly 5.5 strokes on the field all while recording a double-bogey before making the turn on Saturday.
If you’re perusing updated PGA Championship golf odds at online sportsbooks and wondering how many golfers have a chance Sunday, looking at Johnson’s third round is a good place to start.
Leaving golf fans and bettors a Sunday loaded with possibilities, 17 golfers sit no further from the lead than where Johnson was from it less than 24 hours ago,
PGA Championship Live Betting Odds and Picks
All golf odds are from FanDuel unless stated otherwise.
Dustin Johnson -9, +280
Scottie Scheffler -8, +1200
Cam Champ -8, +1200
Collin Morikawa -7, +1100
Paul Casey -7, +1800 (PB)
Brooks Koepka -7, +470
Bryson DeChambeau -6, +1600 (PointsBet)
Tony Finau -6, +3100
Justin Rose -6, +3300 (PointsBet)
Jason Day -6, +2000
Daniel Berger -6, +2000
Tommy Fleetwood -6, +1800
Joel Dahmen -5, +15000 (PointsBet)
Si Woo Kim -5, +13000
Matthew Wolff -5, +8000
Xander Schauffele -5, +3300
Haotong Li -5, +12500
Beyond his history of, dare I say, choking in majors (Johnson failed to convert three previous 54-hole major leads into wins), there’s reason to doubt Johnson holds on to his lead at the PGA Championship.
Johnson currently leads the field in strokes gained putting, which, unlike his driving, is typically an area of concern for the 36-year-old. In fact, Johnson gained more than five strokes putting in the third round. He is gaining strokes at least a little bit everywhere else through three rounds, but the third-round was his worst approach performance (-2.18) of the tournament. Johnson is unlikely to repeat the putting show he put on Saturday, but he doesn’t necessarily have to in order to win.
Champ, Scheffler, & Koepka Not Far Behind
The two golfers lurking one stroke back, Scottie Scheffler and Cam Champ, lack the experience that, in a normal year, would be invaluable on a major championship Sunday. However, with you, me and everyone else watching from our homes due to Covid-19 restrictions, a crowd-less Sunday might not feature the kind of pressure that has previously rattled golfers in similar situations.
It’s not Scheffler or Champ or even Collin Morikawa who Johnson has to worry about most, though. One golfer lurking close behind has more major titles than the rest of the top 20 on the leaderboard combined.
Shortly after shooting in the 60s for the 10th time in his last 11 majors rounds, Brooks Koepka used Saturday’s post-round press conference to remind his competitors, and specifically Johnson, that he’s walked away victorious not once but four times on Sunday afternoons such as the one ahead.
“When I’ve been in this position before I’ve capitalized, he’s only won one,” Koepka told reporters, referring to the four-time 54-hole leader, Johnson.
Oddsmakers nearly have as much confidence in Koepka as Koepka himself, making the four-time major champion merely +470 to win his third consecutive Wanamaker Trophy.
Comfortable enough with his game to throw shade, Koepka is a problem for Johnson and every other golfer within reach of the two-in-a-half-foot, 27-pound silver cup.
PGA Championship: Round 4 Betting Picks
If you read PGA Championship Golf Betting Picks on Monday then you already have Morikawa +3300 and Tommy Fleetwood +4500 bets in play, plus Xander Schauffele +2200.
I’ll be adding to my PGA Championship betting card with a few live wagers heading into Sunday.
Champ & Scheffler +1200 – Avoiding the short odds of both Johnson and Koepka and instead wagering on the inferior Champ and Scheffler might be risky but it’s the right play. As they’ve shown through the first three rounds, Champ and Scheffler are playing well enough to win. It’s the biggest Sunday of their young careers, and the fact that TPC Harding is only lined with trees rather than more than a hundred thousand screaming fans helps to level the playing field between them and the ‘big boys,’ as Koepka might say.
Risking 1 unit to win 12 on each.
Tony Finau +3100 & Matthew Wolff +8000 – Given the bunched leaderboard and the condition of TPC Harding, which is definitely gettable, I’ll sprinkle a little bit more on two longshot golfers, Finau and Wolff. First and third in strokes gained ball-striking, respectively, this week, neither have been too dependent on their putter. If it wasn’t for a couple of short missed putts, Finau would be right there with Champ and Scheffler at -8. Both Finau and Wolff can go as low as anyone. Tomorrow is the time to do it.
Risking 1/2 unit on each.
PGA Championship Round 4 Matchups
Keith Mitchell +120 vs. Brendon Todd – Looking at the leaderboard it’s clear TPC Harding is playing as a bomber’s course. Mitchell is a bomber, Todd is not. Unless Mitchell plays awful, Todd needs to putt well to keep up.
Risking .20 to win .24 units.
Harold Varner III +145 vs. Patrick Reed – Varner fought back after an opening-round 72 (+2), and now sits -3. He’s longer than Reed and hitting the ball better. Let’s go with the underdog again.
Risking .20 to win .29 units.
Jon Rahm -140 vs. Webb Simpson – Rahm can’t make a putt but he led the field in strokes gained tee-to-green in Round 3. If Rahm can ust putt average on Sunday, he should be able to beat Simpson.
Risking .28 to win .20 units.
Matthew Wolff +160 vs. Xander Schauffele- Wolff is hitting the ball better than Xander this week plain and simple.
Risking .20 to win .32 units.
Paul Casey +155 vs. Brooks Koepka – Casey leads the PGA Championship in strokes gained tee-to-green. Koepka has been tending to some type of injury most of the tournament. He seems fine, but all things considered, Koepka seems a bit overvalued in live odds and matchups.
Risking .20 to win .31 units.
“We’re about to enter the greatest stretch of golf in the history of the game,” Jim Nantz said boldly earlier this week.
Nantz was right. No matter how Sunday plays out, there’s plenty for golf fans to look forward to (and bet on) over the next 11 months. Buckle up.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images